821
FXUS63 KTOP 021702
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms linger towards central KS today,
  with a low chance for some more rain in this area tomorrow
  morning as well.

- More widespread rain chances increase Thursday and especially
  into the weekend. Increasing chances for another wet multi-
  day stretch.

- Temperatures stay near to slightly above average, with highs in
  the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Current observations show a diffuse boundary across southern Kansas,
with weak easterly winds in place here in northeast Kansas. Given
the placement of this boundary and the instability axis along it,
the MCS that developed across western Kansas last evening has stayed
off to our south. We`ll see some scattered showers and storms
develop over the next few hours as an area of isentropic ascent
shifts east. Some of these storms could briefly produce some small
hail, but any notable severe weather risk should remain to our south
with the MCS. Do think we`ll see showers and storms linger into mid-
day along and west of the Flint Hills, given persistent weak WAA.
The associated clouds should help keep temperatures in the low 80s,
perhaps mid 80s if the sun briefly peak out. Mostly dry conditions
look to stick around through Wednesday night. Similar to this
morning, could see a few remnants of High Plains convection make it
into north-central Kansas, but for the most part we`ll just see
partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

Thursday and into the weekend, model guidance remains consistent
with a weak upper low developing over the southern High Plains and
slowly lifting northeast towards the area. This would create a
prolonged period of modest isentropic ascent across eastern portions
of Kansas. Total rainfall coverage will be dependent on mesoscale
details that are impossible to resolve this far out, but confidence
is increasing in another multi-day stretch with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The mean QPF through the weekend is over
1" across much of the area in both the Euro and GFS ensembles,
suggesting some pockets of several more inches of rain are quite
plausible. Weak shear suggests the severe weather threat will remain
low through this period, though it could slightly increase later in
the weekend as the upper low makes its closest approach.
Temperatures should stay near to slightly above average over this
period, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail. KMHK could briefly drop to MVFR
with scattered showers or storms through the afternoon. Have input a
PROB30 group at KMHK to account for this potential. East-southeast
winds around 10kts weaken this evening before becoming southeasterly
Wednesday morning. Additional showers or isolated storms could approach
KMHK again after 12z Wed, but confidence is too low to include.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan