058
FXUS63 KTOP 150532
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions are expected to continue through Saturday. An
  Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday.

- Isolated showers and storms could develop this evening. Better
  chances for storms are forecast Saturday night.

- A break from the heat is forecast for Sunday and Monday with highs
  mainly in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed a shortwave lifting through the
middle MO river valley while the longwave upper trough remained over
the Pacific Northwest. Surface obs showed an inverted surface trough
bisecting the forecast area with CNK showing a northeast wind and FOE
with a southeast wind. Cloud cover and limited mixing of the
boundary layer has kept temps in the 80s and lower 90s so far today.

Models show the airmass over the forecast area remains conditionally
unstable with MU CAPE values 3000 J/kg. But think some subsidence on
the back side of the shortwave over eastern NEB has limited vertical
motion so far this afternoon with some modest inhibition for a
surface parcel. Think there are a couple mesoscale features to watch
for that could spark convection. The first would be continued
destabilization along the surface boundary and weak convergence. As
the shortwave continues to move east subsidence will weaken. Mid
level lapse rates remain steep at around 8 C/km and forecast
sounding prog around 1200 J/kg of downdraft CAPE. Meanwhile overall
bulk shear is progged to weaken. So for the late afternoon and early
evening there could be a pulse storm or two develop mainly along the
surface boundary. Damaging winds could occur with a collapsing
thunderstorms, and with precipital water values near 2 inches
torrential rainfall will remain possible. The second mesoscale
feature to keep an eye on is the potential for a convectively
induced vort max lifting out of the high plains late tonight.
Already seeing convection developing over CO and models show a
compact vort max lifting through north central KS towards sunrise
Saturday. There should be quite a bit more inhibition with any
shower activity being well elevated. Bulk shear is expected to be
week overnight, so again pulse storms could bring some brief heavy
rainfall. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the middle and
upper 70s for most locations.

For Saturday models show the upper ridge sliding south with the
surface boundary remaining in the area. Have held onto some slight
chance POPs across north central KS through the morning thinking
that elevated shower activity may be able to linger similar to the
past couple days. Confidence in the temp forecast is below normal as
some of the short term guidance is coming in with a more southerly
position to the surface boundary. This brings into question the heat
warning. Think that some of the northern counties may struggle to
reach the 105 heat index. But if it clears out and we get a
southerly wind we may still see heat indices of 105 to 110 for areas
along and south of the KS river. So have opted to leave the
excessive heat warning as is. Models show improving storm chances
Saturday night, and given the pattern over the last several days it
is hard to argue with. The central plains should be under more of
the westerlies and the persistent nocturnal convection seen to the
north of the area the last couple nights will have a better
opportunity to develop over northern KS. So have stuck with the
likely POPs across the northern counties that the NBM has.

There is pretty good agreement from the operational models and
ensembles for there to be a break from the excessive heat Sunday and
Monday. The good news is highs look to be in the 80s. The bad news
is the humidity doesn`t look that much better with dewpoints
expected to still be around 70 degrees on Monday. Shortwave energy
within northwest flow aloft is progged to bring chances for shower
and storms to the area Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period,
the consensus from the ensembles is for the upper ridge to redevelop
over the Rockies. There is a lot more spread in the ensembles
(around 15 degrees between the twenty fifth and seventy fifth
percentiles) overall for Thursday and Friday, so haven`t made any
changes to the forecast from WPC/NBM. I would anticipate adjustments
to the forecast temps for the back half of next week. Overall the
signal from the ensembles is for scattered precip chances that lines
up with climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with storms now moving east and north of
terminals and cig restrictions also well north of terminals. Winds
should persist from the south to southwest through most of the day
Saturday before a frontal boundary moves south and turns winds back
from the northeast. A stray shower may move through this morning
from any lingering activity left from western KS, though better storm
chances come late this period and just beyond. Will hold off on any
TS mention for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Picha