022
FXUS63 KTOP 080720
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
220 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM this
  evening. Afternoon heat index values will reach 103-109 degrees
  this afternoon.

- Storms develop along a cold front late this afternoon into
  the evening, a couple of which could be strong to severe with
  damaging wind gusts being the main hazard.

- Shower and storm chances continue into the day Wednesday. A
  storm or two could be strong to severe along and south of
  Interstate 35 during the afternoon.

- Relief from the excessive heat comes behind the front with
  temperatures closer to normal for the later part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Mid-level ridging remains in place over the Central and Southern
Plains early this morning, but change looms as a potent shortwave
ejects east along the US/Canada border later today. In the meantime,
the pressure gradient has tightened across the area and elevated
surface winds have kept the boundary layer mixed, leading to warm
overnight temperatures holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
Deep mixing and 850mb temperatures of 25-27 degrees C will result in
another hot day with highs in the 100-105 degree range for most.
Dewpoints will likely mix out into the low 60s across north central
and central Kansas while dewpoints hold in the mid to upper 60s
farther east. All-in-all, heat index values will reach 103-109
degrees this afternoon. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
through 7 PM this evening.

The aforementioned shortwave across the northern US will squash the
mid-level ridge and push a cold front into the area this evening
into Wednesday. Guidance is in good agreement in this front pushing
into north central Kansas by around 5 PM. The best forcing is
displaced north of the front, but frontal convergence will be
sufficient to generate showers and storms along and behind the
boundary. Shear is progged to be marginal (20kts), but storms could
produce damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH given inverted-V soundings
and high DCAPE values. Isentropic ascent and weak passing energy
will continue scattered showers and storms overnight into Wednesday
morning as the boundary slowly sags south across the area. A cooler
airmass builds in behind the front, leading to a less hot day with
highs in the 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. The pre-frontal
environment will still be hot and favorable for some marginally
severe storms by Wednesday afternoon, and guidance is again in good
agreement that the front will still be across east-central Kansas by
the early afternoon. Thus, areas south and east of the Kansas
Turnpike could see a couple of strong to marginally severe storms.
Highs in this area could also reach into the mid to upper 90s with
heat index values around 100 degrees. Will hold off on any extension
of heat headlines as a faster front and/or precipitation and cloud
cover could keep conditions cooler.

The front will push through the area by Wednesday evening, bringing
in much anticipated cooler temperatures for Thursday! Highs in the
80s on Thursday will warm slightly into the upper 80s and low 90s on
Friday before another shortwave and surface front move through the
area Friday night into Saturday. There is a signal for an MCS to
develop and push across the area during this timeframe, with enough
instability and shear to support some strong to severe storms. Will
need to monitor this potential over the coming days. Passing waves
in the quasi-zonal flow lead to continued chances for precipitation
into early next week. Long-range guidance has been suggesting a
strong cold front push through in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.
Temperature spreads are quite large still, but there is potential
for temperatures to fall below-normal behind this front, bringing
a more fall-like feel to the area. Uncertainty remains, so stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail. South-soutwesterly winds become gusty by
14-15z and remain so through around sunset Tuesday evening.
Chances for showers/storms increase just beyond this TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           76
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    77

Record high temperature information:

September 8  Topeka     104, set in 2013          102
 Concordia  102, set in 2013          104

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage