156
FXUS63 KTOP 161927
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid, with heat indicies around 105 this afternoon
  and again this weekend into next week.

- Thunderstorms likely this evening and overnight. The strongest
  storms may be capable of producing damaging wind around 60
  mph.

- Very heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Southerly warm, moist flow is leading to a rather uncomfortable
day with heat indicies from 100 to 106 already this afternoon.
The early morning complex of storms has pushed an effective
front down to around Highway 24. This boundary will be the
focus for thunderstorms through the rest of the day. Current
analysis has over 3,000 J/Kg of ML CAPE and lapse rates
steepening along the boundary. CAMs have been performing rather
poorly with this setup, but it is worth noting that all of them
have at least some isolated storms developing in the 5pm to 7pm
timeframe along the boundary. With no discernible forcing or
upper-level support, any storms that do form late this afternoon
or early evening would likely pulse up quickly and collapse just
as fast. Brief strong wind gusts and small hail would be
possible in these pulse type storms. During the evening/overnight
a low-level jet should kick in and have a favorable orientation
to the boundary to sustain storms. CAMs show widely scattered
storms forming along the front/boundary. A few strong to
marginally severe storms may develop with ample CAPE and 30
knots of shear, at least near the boundary. If training storms
develop, very heavy rainfall and flooding could become a
concern with rainfall rates around two inches an hour.

Models are coming into better agreement with the front moving
through our area Thursday. This would lead to a much cooler day
with highs in the 70s and 80s depending on cloud cover. Temperatures
warm back up for the weekend with strong southerly flow
returning. Heat indices will likely surpass 100 during the
afternoon this weekend through next week. In fact, there is a
growing signal that we are in for a prolonged heat wave next
week.

With westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture in place,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through the weekend, but at this time, nothing more
than scattered coverage is favored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR becoming MVFR later this evening. A line of showers and
thunderstorms may form along the I-70 corridor from 00z to 04z
this evening as a weak front stalls across the area. This
activity, if it forms, may dissipate or push off to the south
and east. However, a complex of storms may move in from the west
overnight, affecting all terminals. Confidence in timing and
location of storms is low at this point given that where storms
form will be highly dependent on where the front moves/stalls
and interactions with any previous thunderstorm outflow
boundaries and interactions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones