938
FXUS63 KTOP 160519
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions favored for today and tomorrow.

- Severe storms are possible Tuesday. All hazards are possible,
  including heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Heat indices around 100 are possible by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An upper-level ridge over the central Plains is leading to warm
and humid conditions with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The ridge will begin
breaking down Tuesday morning and an upper-level low and cold
front start to move into the area. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be highly dependent on the timing of the front, where/when
storms form and how much cloud cover remains. This is why
ensembles have highs topping out anywhere from the low 80s to
upper 90s on Tuesday. If we hit anywhere close to the mid 90s
then we will likely see heat indicies above 100 with the humid
conditions in place.

Temperatures aren`t the only variable that will be affected by
the front and cloud cover. The evolution of Tuesday with respect
to storms will also be highly conditional on these elements in
addition to whether the cap erodes. There are several
possibilities. The one scenario that several models seem to be
consistent in predicting has the following elements:
A late night MCS develops in southern Nebraska or northwest
Kansas and moves through our area during the morning, then
storms fire along outflow or a differential heating boundary
left over by the decaying/departing MCS before yet another MCS
develops along the actual cold front that blows through during
the evening. If this materializes then we could have several
rounds of severe storms given the very unstable (3,500+ J/Kg
CAPE) and sheared (40+ knots of bulk shear) environment. There
are several questions that come up though that could lead to a
very different scenario. Does the morning MCS come through late
enough in the morning that residual cloud cover inhibits
destabilization (breaking of the cap) during the afternoon? Or
does it push far enough south that any remnant boundary (focus
for afternoon convection) left over is south of our area?
Details are far from certain at this point, but there do appear
to be ingredients lining up for an impactful day of severe
storms across the central Plains with all severe hazards (Hail,
Damaging Wind, Tornados, Flooding) possible.

Cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected for Wednesday
behind the departing cold front. Another upper-level ridge
builds in by the end of the week. We may see our first run at
100 degrees by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR at terminals as sfc winds veer to the south, increasing to
near 10 kts sustained aft 17Z. Shallow patchy fog remains
probable enough for a TEMPO mention aft 09Z, albeit increasing
high clouds from the northwest may mitigate it from becoming
widespread.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Prieto