Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
069 NOUS43 KTOP 171925 PNSTOP KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-180725- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Key messages - Severe thunderstorm potential through early Wednesday morning is trending down but at least some potential continues for southern areas along with flooding potential. - Warmer temperatures late this week - the warmest of the season so far. Discussion Showers and thunderstorms continue to percolate mainly outside the local area, primarily focused on moisture convergence not far off the surface in central Kansas. Convective debris front this and other weaker activity to the northwest has kept skies fairly cloudy with little low-level flow to combine to keep instability from increasing for the most part. Will need to watch trends to the west and southwest where better instability and forcing will be present late this afternoon. Recent model runs seem to be getting a better handle on trends and have backed off what many solutions had indicated in depicting concerning convective signals locally. Southwestern to southern counties of the local area look to have the greatest risk for severe storms, and likely a bit earlier based on latest trends. The upper wave should help usher things east by early Wednesday morning. Flooding, especially river flooding, may be the bigger issue with several rivers south of Interstate 70 receiving inflow from areas where thunders torms have been persistent today. Recent radar trends show a slight northward movement of the central Kansas storms which would bring an areal flood threat. The current Flood Watch may be a bit farther north than needed but will let trends play out over the next several hours. Upper ridging remains on track to build northeast into the central Plains in the later portions of the week, allowing warm and humid conditions to push in. Heat indices around 100 look to be common Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly cooler conditions and minor chances for precipitation chances come early next week as the ridge axis shifts a bit east.