768
FXUS64 KTSA 202358
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

  - Widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
    Severe chances low, localized flooding concerns.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal
    normals this weekend.

  - Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through
much of the day today into this evening as an upper level wave
tracks over the region. Heavier rainfall totals will likely set up
from I-44 south, with less rainfall expected across far northern
parts of the forecast area through the afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall of an additional 1 to 2 inches could cause some flooding
concerns, especially in more urban or low lying areas. A lack of
instability will limit much in the way of severe potential. Portions
of far southeast Oklahoma could destabilize some by this afternoon
as the final cluster of storms moves from west to east, and locally
raise some concern for strong to severe storms. Increasing low level
shear near the surface low as it tracks through southeast Oklahoma
could allow for a brief tornado with any more robust storm that can
develop this afternoon. Chances are pretty low at this point though
with widespread rain and cloud cover streaming over the region. Rain
will begin to push east tonight with some lingering showers and
possibly a thunderstorm possible as the trough axis swings through.
Temperatures will remain fairly steady today, generally in the mid

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Lingering showers Friday morning, mainly across northwest Arkansas,
should quickly push east with the exiting wave. A cold front will
follow the upper low moving from northwest to southeast through the
day Friday. The result will be more seasonable temperature settling
in for the weekend. Highs tomorrow could reach the mid 70s across
south and east portions of the forecast area, where the front will
be later to arrive. Clearing skies will lead to a pleasant afternoon
for most on Friday. Cooler and drier conditions will settle in on
Saturday and again Sunday as another system approaches the area from
the west. Latest trends in the guidance have come into better
agreement on timing of any precipitation associated with the next
system. The upper low is also trending to track further north,
limiting more of the heavy rain threat that has been noted in
previous forecasts. Still widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms are progged to moves across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Sunday night into Monday. Overall, the severe
weather threat appears rather limited but a few stronger storms will
be possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma Sunday night.
Locally, another 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible...with
widespread totals around one half to one inch in the forecast.

A series of cold fronts will keep temperatures closer to or possibly
below normal into the Thanksgiving holiday, with dry weather
prevailing after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A mixed bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR ceilings are being reported
across eastern OK and northwest AR early this evening. Flight
conditions should continue to deteriorate as the evening and night
progress, resulting in mostly MVFR and IFR conditions by or just
after midnight tonight. Periodic off/on showers will continue into
the overnight hours. Some of the showers may briefly further
deteriorate conditions to LIFR. Another round of moderate to
heavy rain and thunderstorms will move from west to east later
this evening that will impact areas mostly south of I-40. Flight
conditions should begin to improve by early afternoon Friday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  71  47  62 /  70  10   0   0
FSM   62  76  51  67 /  80  20   0   0
MLC   60  75  48  65 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   55  70  43  60 /  70  10   0   0
FYV   59  72  47  63 /  90  20  10   0
BYV   59  71  49  62 /  90  30  10   0
MKO   60  73  48  63 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   60  70  47  60 /  80  20  10   0
F10   58  73  47  63 /  70  10   0   0
HHW   61  75  49  68 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67