197
FXUS64 KTSA 270527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A fairly quiet overnight will exist for most of the forecast area,
with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. The exception to
the latter remains near the Red River, where CAMs show continued
potential for isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop through
the evening. Will maintain the low POPs in this area to cover this
potential. All other elements appear on track as well, and the
only update needed to the going forecast is the removal of the
expired Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Hot and muggy conditions will persist from Thursday through
Saturday afternoon. In response, have elected to post an
Excessive Heat Watch for Friday in a few of our Oklahoma
counties where apparent T`s are expected to surpass 110F. A low
potential will exist for some isolated storms across the northern
part of the CWA Thursday afternoon associated with a subtle
shortwave near the OK/KS border. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly.
More widespread thunderstorms will occur Saturday night through
Sunday afternoon, especially across northwest Arkansas and the
northern half of eastern Oklahoma. Subsidence associated with the
ridge may limit thunderstorm chances across the southeast
Oklahoma. For the remainder of the forecast period, hot and muggy
conditions will once again dominate, and additional heat headlines
will likely be needed by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the period for all
sites. Guidance continues to suggest potential for pockets of
reduced visibility across NW AR sites late tonight/ early tomorrow
morning, so have left TEMPO groups in for FYV/XNA/ROG between
10-13z. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid and high clouds are forecast
through the period. Low chance for scattered showers/ storms to
move near NE OK sites this afternoon and overnight, however the
potential for this appears low enough to preclude mention in TAFs
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  78 100  83 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   94  75  99  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  76  98  80 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  74 101  80 /  10  20   0  20
FYV   92  71  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   90  69  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   92  75  98  80 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   91  74  97  80 /   0  20  10  20
F10   92  75  98  79 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   92  74  96  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-066-067-070.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...43