052
FXUS64 KTSA 071122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms again Sunday.
   Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

 - Moderate flooding on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday
   morning.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday
   afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of western
Arkansas with periods of rotation noted at times. Activity should
push off to the north and east over the next couple of hours, with
a lull in activity likely through the overnight hours. Some
showers and isolated storms could redevelop across southeast
Oklahoma through the overnight, but the widespread activity should
hold off until Sunday morning. The slow moving upper low will
continue to lift northeastward into Kansas during the day Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely become more numerous from
Sunday morning into the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Enough instability will develop by afternoon,
that a strong to severe storm will be possible. Mid level lapse
rates will steepen somewhat tomorrow given the cooling temps aloft
associated with the upper trough. Therefore, damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary concerns. Again, the tornado threat
will be non zero as well, especially as low level shear increases
toward the late afternoon and evening hours.

Additional heavy rainfall will also be likely with any showers
and storms as precipitable water values remain near climatological
max for this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates of one to two
inches per hour will once again be common through Sunday
afternoon. Convection should remain more scattered on Sunday,
leading to lower widespread rain totals, but localized totals will
still be high under any thunderstorms. Given the heavy rainfall
across the area Saturday, will extend the Flood Watch to the
southeast into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and storms will lift northeast out of the forecast area
Sunday night, with a few showers/storms lingering into Monday
morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Upper ridging will then build into the region beginning Monday
through the middle part of the week, leading to more typical heat
and humidity across the region. Recent rainfall will also likely
help intensify dewpoints each afternoon, pushing heat indices into
the 105 range possibly as early as Monday for some locations and
definitely on Tuesday for much of the area. Heat headlines will be
likely during this time. A weak disturbance moving around the
periphery of the ridge could lead to a cluster of storm developing
across Kansas and making a run at far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. But storms
will be weakening rapidly with coming under influence of the
building ridge. Therefore, most look to remain dry for a couple of
days after this system exits.

A strong upper trough will then track eastward across the Central
and Northern Plains form mid to late week, pushing a frontal
boundary near the region. Increasing shower and storm chances will
again be the result, along with a slight reprieve on the intense
heat into the weekend. Another front could move through the area
over the weekend with additional storm chances and a bigger
cooldown possible with that system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Low clouds will bring MVFR or IFR cigs to the terminals this
morning before becoming VFR this afternoon. Area of storms near
the Red River could impact KMLC later this morning, so a TEMPO was
inserted to cover. Should be fairly quiet elsewhere through 18Z.
Latest CAMs suggest widely scattered afternoon showers and storms
and thus used PROB30s to cover potential. Some redevelopment is
forecast in the vicinity of the KS and MO borders this evening and
this could last into the overnight. Used another prob30 group for
that potential. Low clouds are expected to return tonight at most
of the terminals.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  74  89  77 /  70  50  20  10
FSM   86  74  91  76 /  80  40  10  10
MLC   86  76  90  78 /  70  20   0   0
BVO   83  71  88  75 /  60  60  20  10
FYV   81  72  86  75 /  80  50  20  10
BYV   81  70  87  73 /  80  60  40  10
MKO   82  73  89  75 /  70  40  10  10
MIO   81  71  88  75 /  80  80  40  10
F10   84  73  89  75 /  70  30   0   0
HHW   85  74  90  76 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ055>071-073>075-154-172-
     176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-
     129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30