070
FXUS64 KTSA 061733
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - Headline-worthy heat is expected to persist through the middle
   of the week. Some relief is expected to close out the week.

 - Afternoon rain/storm chances have trended upward today, with
   some low chances persisting into Monday. Storms may produce
   locally strong to severe wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will exist through Wednesday due
   to the worsening drought.

 - Late week rain/storm chances have also trended upward, with
   confidence increasing that a front will make a good southward
   push into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A fairly stagnant upper flow pattern remains in place over the
CONUS, characterized by troughing over the Pac NW and Northeast,
and broad ridging over the central part of the country. At the
surface, a back door front arcs southeast to northwest from the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the lower Missouri River
Valley and into the northern Plains.

The CAMs have been consistent in suggesting that the deep-layer
moist plume along and ahead of the front will support afternoon
showers and storms, with the best coverage this afternoon across
far eastern OK into northwest AR. Storms have started in the
terrain and will then work their way west and south from there on
the east side of weak ridging aloft. The model blend (NBM) has
finally caught up to this scenario, and the forecast was adjusted
just to expand the slight chance mention farther south and west
for the afternoon and early evening. Gusty downburst winds, with
an isolated severe wet microburst possible, and brief heavy
downpours can be expected with any storms that develop. CAMs also
suggest some potential for spotty afternoon showers and storms on
Monday as well. Coverage should be less than today with upper
heights beginning to rise, but will hit the more confident areas
(Ozarks, SE OK) with mentionable PoPs.

As far as the heat is concerned, forecast temperatures in the low
to mid 100s combined with the humidity yield nearly areawide
headlines through Monday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper heights will rise over the region Monday night into Tuesday
and will peak Tuesday night into Wednesday (at 500mb). Headline-
worthy heat and dry weather can be expected. There is some hint of
an eastward extension of the low-level thermal ridge across
northern OK Wednesday afternoon ahead of a front over KS, so that
could add a few degrees to an already hot forecast across NE OK.

Now to the good news. The ridge will break down quickly as an
upper trough develops over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Both the
GFS and EC develop a band of showers and storms along the KS front,
dropping south into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The
model blend PoPs (NBM) have increased to likely across the north,
definitely a good sign when you are in a drought. The outflow-
reinforced boundary is expected to make a good southward push into
the area Thursday, knocking temps back a bit. In fact, the new
forecast for Thursday and Friday has highs below 100 areawide.
Temps are likely to rebound over the weekend as the boundary
retreats back north ahead of what could be a stronger system and
cold front the following week. There are at least signs in the
models that fall is coming. Stay tuned.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR will prevail through the forecast period with the exception of any
thunderstorm influences. Model guidance continues to suggest storm
coverage will trend higher across western AR through the
afternoon. Did add a PROB30 group for thunder chances at KMLC, as
well, for this TAF package. Gusty outflow winds will be likely
with any storms which may also impact terminal operations at
times.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  78 101  80 /  20  10  10   0
FSM  106  76 103  74 /  30  20  10   0
MLC  104  77 102  77 /  20  20  20   0
BVO  103  72 102  74 /  20  10  10   0
FYV  103  72 101  72 /  50  20  20   0
BYV  102  72  98  71 /  40  20  20   0
MKO  103  75 101  75 /  20  20  10   0
MIO  102  74 100  75 /  20  10  10  10
F10  102  75 101  75 /  20  10  20   0
HHW  100  76  99  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-
     055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67