284
FXUS64 KTSA 171728
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

 - Low shower and storm chances through Monday evening, especially southeast
   of I-44. Limited severe risk this evening.

 - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday. Severe weather possible along
   with locally heavy rainfall.

 - Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances
   through the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A broad upper level trough across the northwestern USA and
associated surface low in the lee of the Rockies will continue to
induce deep southerly flow across the area. Low level moisture
will increase with dew points rising to near 70F. A series of weak
shortwaves will pass through the area providing some limited
lift. Large instability will develop, but given the limited lift,
lack of obvious surface forcing, and fairly dry air just above the
boundary layer, storms will have a difficult time initiating. If
any storms can develop, there will be plenty of shear and
instability to allow storms to become severe. Maintained low
15-20% PoPs to account for this possibility, with the relative
highest chance this evening. High temperatures will reach the mid
to upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The same general pattern will remain in place Monday, just
windier. A Wind Advisory is posted for portions of northeast
Oklahoma. There will be some improvement in forcing, however, as
the dry line moves into western Oklahoma. Sporadic convective
initiation may occur along the line, with any storms that develop
moving east into the forecast area during the evening hours. Most
CAMs that show this focus across southeast OK, but any location
along the dry line will be in play. A few CAMs hint at some
isolated storms popping up within the warm sector, though this
remains uncertain. Like today, any storms that develop will
possess an abundance of moisture, wind shear, and instability, so
they may become severe. Large hail and damaging winds would be the
more likely hazards.

A cold front will then move into the forecast area Tuesday morning.
Storms will have grown upscale into a line by the time the front
reaches the forecast area. This will promote the threat of heavy
rain and strong winds as it moves through. In general, the shear
vector will likely be mostly parallel to the front, which will limit
the overall tornado threat. However, if any individual segments bow
out, the wind shear will promote the potential for QLCS tornadoes as
well. Models remain uncertain on the exact progression of the front,
but some reinvigoration is expected to the south of it due to
daytime heating Tuesday afternoon. This will continue the severe
weather threat until the cold front clears the area.

Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front, with highs
Wednesday through Friday mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s to
lower 60s. Rain chances along with some thunder potential will
persist as moisture rides above the elevated frontal surface and a
passing upper level trough induces some lift. Rainfall will be
fairly widespread during this period, but generally not overly
heavy either. Upper level ridging will gradually return into the
weekend, though remaining fairly weak. This will promote gradual
warming and drying into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

MVFR cigs have largely lifted to VFR conditions which will
continue through the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will remain
gusty through the period with higher gusts likely during the
daytime hours through the rest of today and again tomorrow
morning. Gusts lessen somewhat overnight, with LLWS likely across
all sites as a strong LLJ ramps up. A few scattered light showers
remain possible through the period and an isolated thunderstorm
still appears possible, mainly across SE OK and NW AR later this
afternoon. Chances are too low to mention any TAF impacts at this
time however. MVFR cigs are progged to filter back into the area
from south to north again tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  87  68  73 /  10  10  60  70
FSM   73  88  71  82 /  20  20  20  90
MLC   74  87  72  79 /  20  30  20  90
BVO   72  86  61  70 /  10  20  70  50
FYV   72  84  71  79 /  20  20  20  90
BYV   72  85  72  80 /  20  20  20  90
MKO   73  86  70  76 /  10  10  30  90
MIO   73  86  68  73 /  10  10  60  80
F10   73  87  70  75 /  10  20  30  80
HHW   73  86  72  81 /  30  30  20  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055-056-
     059>061-064-154-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04