032
FXUS64 KTSA 122325
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

 - Oppressively hot and dry weather will persist through the
   work week and into the upcoming weekend.

 - Rain chances are unlikely through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

It is yet another hot and dry day with maximum heat indices
between 105 and 110 likely across the FA. As occurred yesterday,
a few locations may briefly exceed 110, but still expect this to
remain isolated and short enough in duration to avoid any
upgrades to Extreme Heat Warning. With that said, if observational
trends warrant, a short-fused warning cannot be ruled out. Not
much relief is expected overnight as even the lowest temperatures
in the CWA only fall into the mid 70s. In fact, most areas will
remain in the 80s for much of the night. Because of the intensity
and duration of the heat, with little to no relief overnight, the
Heat Advisory will continue through the nighttime hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast
through the end of this week and into the next. High temperatures
will generally remain steady in the upper 90s/lower 100s, but
could increase a couple degrees over the weekend as the ridge
intensifies overhead. All in all, dangerous heat will persist over
the next several days with daily heat index values greater than
105 degrees. Some areas of NE OK may need to be upgraded to a
warning for Thursday, but given the potential for stronger
afternoon winds to help mix out dewpoints more, as well as reduce
the WBGT impact slightly, will hold off for now. Otherwise, the
Heat Advisory was extended until 8 PM Sunday as dangerous heat
looks likely into early next week. Additional extensions (partial
or full) may be required over the coming days. As mentioned
above, breezy afternoon SW winds will continue, especially
Thursday and Friday. This may promote a limited fire weather
threat given the continued dry and hot conditions.

Guidance continues to suggest potential for a weak frontal
boundary to move into at least northern parts of the area Monday.
If the front did manage to push into our area, it appears there
would be a brief window for some low rain chances over NE OK and
NW AR, as well as a slight cool down. However, given the forecast
strength of the ridge (~597dam) and recent model behavior, there
is reason to be skeptical. For now, the theme of hot and dry will
persist for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Maintained LLWS at the NE OK TAF sites overnight tonight through
mid-morning. Surface winds will briefly decrease after sunset this
evening, but will gradually increase through the overnight and
early morning hours on Friday. Anticipate widespread wind gusts in
excess of 20 knots from late morning through the afternoon and
into the early evening hours. Diurnal cumulus and FEW to SCT
mid/high level clouds will continue through the forecast period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83 103  83 103 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   81 102  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   81 101  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   79 104  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   79  99  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   79 101  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   80 101  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
F10   79 102  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   79  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67