392
FXUS64 KTSA 071746
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

  - Cooler temperatures through Wednesday.

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through the
    weekend.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in
    limited fire weather concerns for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday Night )
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Weak surface frontal boundary will exit southeast Oklahoma this
afternoon, with the elevated portion of the boundary expected to
exit this evening/tonight. An isolated potential for a lingering
shower will remain this afternoon as the weak surface/elevated
axis of frontogenetic forcing moves southeast through the region.
Before this forcing, around 850-mb, exits there are a few short
term solutions that try to develop an isolated shower over
southeast Oklahoma tonight. For now will continue to keep PoPs
below mentionable criteria, as any potential coverage should be
quite limited.

Behind the boundary, surface high pressure continues to filter
into the CWA through tonight within northerly low level flow
transporting cooler conditions. Scattering cloud cover combined
with these conditions should help low temperatures tonight to fall
into the lower 50s near the Kansas border to the mid 60s near the
Red River. Surface high begins to shift eastward Wednesday with
winds becoming more east/northeast and temperatures more closer to
the seasonal average of 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures
Wednesday night of around 50 deg to around 60 deg are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The backside of surface high pressure moves through Thursday while
a ridge of mid/upper level high pressure begins to redevelop
across the Southern Plains. This ridge becomes established over
the region Friday with the return of southerly low level flow for
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. In response, a warming
trend develops with above seasonal average temperatures return
Friday and the weekend.

A shortwave is progged to move across the Western CONUS and into
the Plains Saturday night/Sunday, which will help to push the high
pressure ridge east of the CWA. Low level southerly winds increase
Sunday with gusts of 15 to 30 mph forecast. Gusty winds, warm
temperatures and min afternoon humidity generally less than 35
percent will aid in limited grassland fire weather danger Sunday
afternoon for northeast Oklahoma. At this time, area of greater
concern could set up west of Highway 75 where these conditions
look to be co- located, and also a lack of significant rainfall
over the past month. Latest model solutions continue to differ on
location of an associated frontal boundary to the shortwave moving
through the Plains Sunday into early next week. For now, will
hold onto a slight chance of rain Monday for northeast Oklahoma as
the boundary could come close to the CWA. Either way, significant
rainfall is not currently in the forecast for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Band of IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to dissipate from SE OK to
NW AR early this afternoon. An expanding region of low to mid
cloud will begin to impact NE OK sites and spread and eastward
through the evening. Expectation is ceilings will remain in VFR
range except near the OK/KS border. Overnight the coverage of MVFR
ceilings is likely to expand with highest chances across NW AR
terminals. Winds will remain light and any coverage of light
showers is not expected to impact flight levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  83  58  82 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   62  82  58  82 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   50  76  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  77  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   55  75  51  74 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   58  80  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   52  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
F10   56  81  57  81 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   64  83  60  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07