627
FXUS64 KTSA 170402
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

  - Chance of showers/storms overnight for portions of northeast
    OK with a low severe risk.

  - Unseasonably hot on Tuesday. Heat index values jump between
    95-105 degrees.

  - Another weather system will move through the area increasing
    severe storm chances Tuesday night with a higher severe risk
    Wednesday.

  - Dry and Summer-like conditions are expected late in the week
    and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Afternoon weak isolated convection across northwest Arkansas will
gradually diminish as the upper trough digs eastward.  Although dry
through most of the night another shortwave coming down off the
Central High Plains into southeast Kansas may bring showers and
elevated thunderstorms into northeast Oklahoma by sunrise Tuesday.
Low-end moderate elevated instability and a robust 850 mb flow could
result in a few storms to be strong to low-end severe as the move
into our northwest CWA although should weaken in time.  NBM was too
dry so added low storm POPs into the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

After sunrise Tuesday will increase TSRA POPs (although mostly
showers) further into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
through the rest of the morning before dissipating.  South winds
will be increasing as the surface isobaric tighten becoming gusty at
25-30 mph as we mix into the afternoon.  Although morning stratus
becoming thin high cloudiness by the afternoon, will see highs
generally in the lower 90s especially by late afternoon as the
Cirrus exits for maximum solar heating.

We do have a potential for severe weather late Tuesday with an MCS
coming down from the Central Plains with the severe risk higher on
Wednesday as a shortwave pushes a surface front across most of our
area.  For Tuesday nights potential convection, a strong southerly
low-level jet will increase keeping the convection organized and low-
level sheared with the overall highest severe risk across much of
eastern Kansas where the tornado potential will be highest.  Will
need to keep any eye across far northeast Oklahoma near the
potential tornadic risk area but most of the potential hazards in
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts for Tuesday night.  Wednesday`s severe risk will
be higher with moderate instability/CAPE values due steeper mid-
level lapse rates and stronger surface heating/mixing ahead of
surface front.  More deep-layer shear will be in place with the
upper trough as well Wednesday.  As a result, could see convection
initiating ahead of the front by late Wednesday afternoon with
additional forcing from the surface boundary as it pushes through
into the evening hours.  Large hail and damaging winds gusts will
still be the severe hazards for the late afternoon/evening storms on
Wednesday.  Upper ridging starts building by Wednesday with a return
of southerly winds as we trend into more of a drier and hotter
weather pattern through the latter half of this week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Surface winds will remain light overnight especially near the
Oklahoma and Arkansas border.  Areas of fog may develop overnight,
especially in the favored valleys of northwestern Arkansas.  At this
time will mention visibility to around 1SM for most terminals in
Arkansas.  Thunderstorms are developing and moving southeast from
northern Kansas.  Some of these storms may impact northeastern Oklahoma
by Tuesday morning (mainly between 14-18Z).  Otherwise, a southerly wind
will become a little breezy Tuesday afternoon with VFR conditions.  Another
round of storms may impact northern Oklahoma, but better chances will occur
after 6Z Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  92  75  86 /   0  20  40  30
FSM   72  94  76  91 /   0   0  10  50
MLC   70  93  75  88 /   0   0  10  40
BVO   67  91  72  85 /   0  30  50  20
FYV   67  91  73  86 /   0  20  20  50
BYV   67  91  72  86 /   0   0  20  60
MKO   69  91  74  85 /   0  10  20  50
MIO   67  90  71  84 /   0  30  60  40
F10   70  91  74  86 /  10  10  20  40
HHW   72  91  75  89 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06