303
FXUS64 KTSA 020450
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1050 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - High shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into
   Tuesday, with potential for severe weather and locally heavy
   rain.

 - Temperatures closer to seasonal average mid to late week behind
   early week system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A warm and cloudy evening is in progress across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas, which is expected to continue into early
Monday morning. The generally low impact weather will become
decidedly more active after daybreak Monday, however, with the
expectation of increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across mainly northeast Oklahoma through the afternoon. The storm
system of interest is centered west of the Four Corners in the
southwestern United States late this evening, with thunderstorms
developing well ahead of the upper low in parts of eastern New
Mexico. This activity is expected to increase in coverage and
shift eastward overnight, eventually reaching parts of northeast
Oklahoma west of Highway 75 after daybreak, albeit in a declining
phase. Around midday into the early afternoon hours, additional
development remains advertised by multiple models in response to
increasing mid level flow across the area ahead of the main
system, expected to be located in northeast New Mexico/southeast
Colorado by this time. Northeast Oklahoma remains most likely to
see this early to mid afternoon development, the coverage of which
will be a pivotal player in how the severe thunderstorm threat
unfolds during the evening and overnight. The afternoon storms
will have a lesser chance to be strong to severe than with the
later storms, although that chance is non-zero. The expectation is
for the coverage and intensity of these storms to wane somewhat as
they move eastward into late afternoon.

In addition to the afternoon storm threats, a potent low level jet
will position itself over the area during the day, leading to
strong and gusty southerly winds. Current thinking is the
cloudiness will limit the overall mixing potential, with these
winds not likely to be fully realized at the surface. A few spots
may see a 40+ mph gust or two, but with this expected to be
isolated and brief in nature, a Wind Advisory will not be issued
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main band of thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned
storm system will likely develop just west of the area late
afternoon into early evening, sweeping eastward into early Tuesday
morning. These storms have a higher likelihood of being severe,
with wind fields and a linear storm mode supportive of mainly
damaging wind and leading edge tornado threats. The overall
severity as mentioned above is contingent on how much the
afternoon storms impact the environment across northeast and east
central Oklahoma. With an increasing low level jet and
corresponding uptick in low level helicity values late evening
into early Tuesday morning across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, the overall threat for leading edge tornadoes may
increase after dark. Keeping up with the latest forecast
expectations into the evening and also having multiple ways to
receive warning information, including ways designed to wake you
up, are both recommended actions for those that may be impacted by
these storms overnight. The storms should exit the western
Arkansas counties by mid to late morning Tuesday.

Regarding the heavy rain and flooding potential, forecast
precipitable water values remain near seasonal maxes, supporting
efficient rainfall. However, this is likely to be offset by faster
storm movements given the wind fields. Parts of northeast Oklahoma
that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms from Monday afternoon
through Monday night will have the highest likelihood of seeing
localized flooding impacts.

The cold front associated with the system will begin to move
through early Tuesday morning, clearing the area to the east by
Tuesday afternoon. Cooler and drier conditions should prevail
Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Another fast moving storm
system will move through the area Thursday, with low rain chances
making a brief return to parts of northeast Oklahoma during the
day. Overall, both high and low temperatures from the middle of
this week into the next weekend should remain near seasonal
normals, with low impact weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds remain common overnight
for the CWA. During the night/early Monday morning, MVFR ceilings
spread back over northwest Arkansas and look to continue into the
afternoon hours. A period of MVFR ceilings also is forecast for
northeast Oklahoma TAF sites during the morning hours Monday.
Monday afternoon and evening, scattered to broken low and mid
clouds are anticipated as a low pressure and cold front move into
the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances develop late
morning/early afternoon in northeast Oklahoma and become more
likely late afternoon and evening for eastern Oklahoma. Storm
chances look to near northwest Arkansas TAF sites near the end of
the TAF period. Will continue with VCTS and Prob30 groups for
timing of greater storm potential. Winds through the period start
out east to southeast and become gusty out of the south during the
day Monday into Monday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  79  58  69 /   0  60  90  10
FSM   62  80  66  73 /   0  10  90  80
MLC   63  83  62  70 /   0  10  90  10
BVO   60  76  56  67 /   0  80  90  10
FYV   58  75  61  70 /  10  10  90  70
BYV   60  74  64  72 /   0  10  80  80
MKO   62  81  61  70 /   0  10  90  20
MIO   61  78  61  69 /   0  30  90  40
F10   62  81  59  69 /   0  40  90  10
HHW   62  84  65  73 /   0   0  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...20