505
FXUS64 KTSA 111729
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

 - Oppressively hot and dry weather will persist through the
   work week and into the upcoming weekend.

 - Rain chances are unlikely through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

If you remember what it felt like yesterday, you have a good idea
of what to expect for the rest of today and tonight, with a near
carbon copy likely. 24-hour temperature and dew point trends are
running within a degree or two of yesterdays values, which
supports widespread heat index values this afternoon in the 105 to
110 range. One change that will be made today is expanding the
Heat Advisory to all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
as well as extending it in time through Friday afternoon. These
changes were made due to the prolonged nature of the afternoon
heat, as well as winds and dew points keeping overnight
temperatures up in much of the forecast area as well. Speaking of,
lows tonight will again be in the mid and upper 70s in much of the
area with local values - looking at you, Tulsa - in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

For the remainder of the work week, near persistent daily
conditions will be in the offing, with upper level high pressure
solidly in control of the weather across the area through at
least the weekend and likely into next week as well. Low level
temperatures support continued widespread triple digit ambient
temperatures across the region, with heat index values mainly in
the 105 to 110 range. Overnight low temperatures are also expected
to remain similar, providing little relief from the afternoon
heat. The aforementioned extension of the Heat Advisory through
the day Friday was a fairly conservative one, and the expectation
is that this will need to eventually be extended through at least
the weekend. Uncertainty increases slightly for the early part of
next week, with the high pressure center shifting westward and
potential for a disturbance and weak cool front to affect mainly
northern portions of the region. The bulk of the impacts from this
still look to remain north of the area but these features may
bring a modest uptick in the rain chances for a lucky few.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period for all
sites. Afternoon cu development is underway across the area and
expect this to occur again Wednesday late morning/early afternoon.
FEW to SCT mid and high clouds may also spread over the region
tonight into tomorrow. SW LLWS develops across NE OK overnight as
the nocturnal LLJ strengthens across KS and W OK. Sfc winds will
be gusty during the daytime hours and remain light out of the
south overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82 103  83 102 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   79 102  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79 101  80 100 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78 103  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   78  99  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   78 101  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   79 101  80  99 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   78  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43