280
FXUS64 KTSA 161033
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated showers/storms this afternoon
across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring low-
medium chances (20-50%) for storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas late Wednesday night and Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
Advisories likely.

 - Low chance (20%) of showers and storms in southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Saturday associated with a possible tropical
disturbance..

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Predominantly quiet conditions are expected through this morning
with very low potential for a shower or two. Isolated showers/
storms then attempt to develop along the moisture transport axis
again this afternoon, but coverage is forecast to be less than
previous days and most locations are likely to remain dry. As a
result, will hold PoPs generally in the 10-20% range, with the HREF
indicating the highest potential across south-central OK associated
with a vort max moving out of Texas. As was the case on Tuesday,
severe weather is unlikely, but any stronger storm that manages to
develop may produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds given
high PWATs and notable DCAPE in place. Precip should tend to
decrease during the evening with loss of heating and increasing
inhibition. Outside of any direct influence from convection, heat
indices this afternoon are forecast to climb into the 95 to 105 F
range yet again... especially across SE OK where heaviest rains have
fallen recently. Will hold off on any Heat Advisories for now, but
this may need to be reevaluated later this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along a frontal
boundary sagging southward through Kansas tonight. This feature will
approach northeast Oklahoma by the early morning hours with slight
chance to chance PoPs generally along and north of I-44 by daybreak
Thursday. Storm chances persist Thursday morning and tick up during
the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes... generally across
northeast Oklahoma and portions of northwest Arkansas. The
environment will continue to support locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds through Thursday evening. By Friday, the front washes
out and upper ridging begins to build into the region. This will
generally suppress precip chances over the weekend and into next
week. However, will need to watch how a potential tropical
disturbance in the northern gulf trends, as this may bring some rain
back to eastern portions of the FA. For now, will stick with the
slight chance PoPs offered by the NBM on Saturday, mainly across
portions of West-Central Arkansas.

Temperatures and resultant heat indices will climb late this week
into next week as ridging intensifies overhead. With temps rising
into the upper 90s, heat index values will likely exceed 105 F in
spots this weekend and especially into next week. Thus, Heat
Advisories appear probable during the extended period and this will
have potential to evolve into a prolonged heat event across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to largely prevail through the
forecast period. Isolated afternoon showers and storms could
briefly impact terminals but chances remain very low at any
specific location. Additional showers and storms may spread into
NE OK late tonight and persist into the day Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  76  93  74 /  10  20  30  10
FSM   96  76  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   93  75  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   94  74  92  71 /  10  30  50  20
FYV   92  73  93  71 /  20  10  20  10
BYV   93  72  93  71 /  20  10  20  10
MKO   92  75  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   93  75  91  72 /  10  20  50  20
F10   92  75  93  72 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   92  74  94  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07