626
FXUS64 KTSA 161124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - High heat stress conditions continue through Sunday.

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

 - A weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances and
   slightly cooler temperatures late this afternoon into Monday.
   Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of
   temperatures will be minor.

 - Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
   of slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Warm overnight temperatures will lead into another hot and humid
day across the region. Widespread triple digit temps are once
again expected across the area with heat headlines in place
through the afternoon. An upper trough moving through the northern
state will push a weak frontal boundary into northeast Oklahoma
late in the afternoon. Moisture pooling along the boundary could
lead to some more extreme heat index values in isolated locations
through the mid to late afternoon as the heat stress impacts
build. In addition, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along and just behind the boundary as it slowly sags
southward through the evening. Not everyone will see a storm, but
at least a few storms should bring some much needed rainfall to
parts of the area. High T/Td spreads, leading to deep inverted V
profiles will favor some strong downburst wind potential with the
stronger updrafts. The highest rain chances will stay north of
I-40 through the late afternoon and evening Sunday.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Any lingering storms should begin to wane after sunset Sunday.
Storms developing across the High Plains Sunday afternoon could
move east and affect parts of northeast Oklahoma late Sunday night
into Monday morning while weakening. A good gradient in
temperatures is expected on Monday, with relatively cooler weather
with some clouds north of the boundary, possibly stopping the 100
degree streak for Tulsa and surrounding areas, while temperatures
remain near and in excess of 100 degrees to the south. Widely
scattered storm development is again forecast along the boundary
Monday afternoon, with higher chances shifting near and south of
I-40 through Monday evening. Again, strong downburst winds will
be possible with the strongest storms. Meaningful rainfall will
remain spotty at best with many locations not seeing much in the
way of rainfall totals through Monday night.

The boundary loses definition by Tuesday as the upper ridge
intensifies over the Southern Plains and a return to very hot
temperatures and heat headlines areawide. Guidance continues to
indicate the ridge shifting westward by mid week with another
front approaching the region by late in the day Wednesday.
Ahead of this boundary, Wednesday could be the hottest day of the
year as a very strong low level thermal ridge sets up over
northeast Oklahoma while southwesterly downslope flow enhances
warming through the region. High temperatures of 105 plus degrees
could be common Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma.

The passing front brings at least some slightly cooler
temperatures and more rain chances to parts of the area, though
the forecast still remains fairly hot and mostly dry through the
period. A few days on the fringes of northwesterly flow aloft will
maintain some low rain chances into the weekend, but widespread
meaningful rainfall still appears sparse and drought will likely
persist or intensify over much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. The ridge looks to shift back over the Southern Plains
by late next weekend maintaining hot and dry conditions.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast through the
majority of the TAF period as a weak frontal boundary sags into
the CWA this afternoon and tonight. Low storm chances develop
along and near the boundary mid/late afternoon and remain forecast
into the overnight hours over mainly northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Will continue Prob30 groups for timing of the
greater potential. Gusty to locally strong downburst winds are the
main threat within the stronger convection. Winds start the
period out of the south, becomes westerly as the boundary
approaches, and then to northwest/northerly behind the frontal
passage. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  104  77  97  76 /  20  30  20  10
FSM  104  78 102  75 /  10  10  30  30
MLC  104  78 102  75 /   0  10  30  20
BVO  104  72  95  70 /  20  30  20  10
FYV  101  75  96  72 /  20  30  20  20
BYV  100  74  93  70 /  20  20  20  10
MKO  103  75  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
MIO  101  73  93  72 /  30  30  10  10
F10  104  75 100  73 /  20  20  20  20
HHW  101  77 104  77 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-068-
     069-075-154-172-254-276-376.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-
     071-073-074-176-272-354.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for ARZ129-219-220.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20