165
FXUS64 KTSA 251737
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

 - Dangerous heat conditions Saturday and likely continue
   through early next week.

 - Any shower or thunderstorm coverage is likely to remain very
   low Saturday afternoon.

 - Potential minor cool down by mid week but uncertainties remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Ridge of high pressure expands across the southern and central
Plains today aiding in the return of hot and humid conditions across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures in
the mid 90s to near 100 degrees remain forecast which will create
heat index values of 105 to 114 degrees across most of the CWA.
In response, will add the rest of northwest Arkansas into a Heat
Advisory, and upgrade the Arkansas River Valley to a Extreme Heat
Warning. The rest of the current headlines for Saturday will ride
as is for now.

With the CWA on the eastern periphery of the expanding ridge and the
backside of the departing mid level trof from yesterday not quite
having cleared the CWA, a slight chance of an afternoon shower/storm
exists for parts of northwest Arkansas. Any development should
remain isolated and weaken with the loss of daytime heating. Gusty
winds and brief heavy rains could occur with the stronger
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Main forecast concern through the extended period will be the
ridge of high pressure holding across the Plains through the first
half of next week. At the same time, the low level thermal ridge
is progged to expand eastward as well which will continue a slow
warming trend through Tuesday over the CWA. Forecast high
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 104 degrees are
anticipated each afternoon into Tuesday. Surface low pressure
builds lee of the Rocky Mountains Monday allowing for an increase
in south/southwesterly winds. This should help to mix dewpoints
out a little more compared to today/Sunday. In response, heat
index values each afternoon look to reach advisory levels through
remaining mostly below warning criteria.

Latest model solutions continue to highlight the ridge retreating
westward for the second half of next week. This puts the CWA back
on the eastern periphery of the ridge with the potential for a
couple shortwaves to slide southeast through the Plains. A weak
frontal boundary could sag into the region Wednesday and remain in
the area ahead of a more defined shortwave currently progged to
move into the region next weekend. Uncertainties remain with where
this boundary sets up and the overall timing of these waves. For
now will continue with slight chances for convection each
afternoon/evening Wednesday to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. FEW-SCT clouds
near 7-8 kft will continue with south to southwest winds of 5-10
kts, a few higher gusts in the afternoon hours each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79 101  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79 100  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   77 101  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   77  99  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77  98  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-058-
     059-063>066-068>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-
     064>067-070-071-154-254-354.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>057-
     060>062-067.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-129-
     219-220-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06