308
FXUS64 KTSA 271808
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 - Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry today and Friday.

 - The next storm system arrives Friday evening and Saturday
   bringing strong winds, rain, and low thunderstorm chances.

 - Very cold temperatures early next week with low winter weather
   chances on Monday. Please monitor for forecast updates as more
   details become available over the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Happy Thanksgiving! High pressure continues to foster mostly
clear skies with light winds and seasonably cool temperatures
mostly in the 50s. By late tonight, high pressure shifts eastward
as lee troughing develops ahead of the next storm system. Low
temperatures again fall into the 30s or upper 20s in some spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Pressure gradients tighten during the day Friday as a lead wave
approaches the region from the desert SW. This promotes
increasingly windy conditions during the afternoon and evening
hours, gusting 25- 35 mph. Meanwhile, a stronger upper level
trough originating from the Pacific Northwest digs SEwrd during
the day, moving off the Rockies and into the Plains late Friday
night. A strong low level jet develops in response overnight
Friday, further helping to draw moisture northward into our area.
As a result of these features, widespread rain is forecast to
develop Friday evening through at least Saturday morning. Weak
instability could also foster isolated embedded thunderstorms,
mainly over SE OK and W-Central AR where the highest moisture and
resultant instability will reside. Gusty winds will also persist
through the night. As the upper level system moves east Saturday
afternoon, a strong cold front will move through the CWA, quickly
ending precip chances from west to east during the afternoon/
evening. Overall, rain totals will likely amount to less than an
inch for most locations... especially in NE OK where less than
half an inch is more favored. A couple spots in SE OK/ NW AR could
see locally higher amounts above one inch. A brief instance of
localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out in the heaviest hit
areas across SE OK/ NW AR... but overall the heavy rain and flood
threats appear pretty low.

A brief transition to wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out
behind the front Saturday evening/ night as much colder air is
pulled into the area. However, moisture should be quite limited by
this time, casting doubt into this scenario. Even if this were to
occur, impacts are unlikely. Otherwise, strong post-frontal NW
winds (gusting 25-35 mph) develop through Saturday evening and
remain breezy through Saturday night. Combined with the far colder
airmass, wind chills are expected to plummet into the teens late
Saturday night/ Sunday morning. Dry and chilly weather is expected
on Sunday (highs in the 30s to lower 40s) with the next storm
system arriving on Monday.

In general, latest guidance still brings a chance of wintry
precipitation to the FA Monday and Monday night. However, the
trend towards a less impactful and more progressive storm has
generally persisted, with the higher moisture and resultant QPF
remaining south and east of the area. Locations across the north
are still more favored to see snow out of this system, with rain
evolving into a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and/ or snow
across the south where temperature profiles are more messy. This
forecast keeps QPF on the lighter side, with minimal
accumulations and little or no impacts. However, being several
days out still, it should be stressed that higher winter weather
impacts are still possible in the stronger and wetter solutions
(as reflected within ensemble data) and the worst case scenario
could involve a couple inches of snow and/ or light ice
accumulations somewhere in the FA. The Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI-P) continues to paint a 5-20% chance of minor
impacts for the CWA. Please continue to monitor the forecast for
any changes over the holiday weekend.

After this storm exits, high pressure develops across the area,
keeping conditions dry on Tuesday. Another storm system passes to
the north on Wednesday, but our area is forecast to remain dry at
this time. Temperatures will slowly moderate through next week,
warming back to near or slightly above 50 degrees by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with light winds. Expect an increase
in mid and higher level cloudiness tonight into Friday.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  55  45  54 /   0   0  80  90
FSM   34  57  42  53 /   0   0  90 100
MLC   34  56  44  58 /   0   0  90  90
BVO   28  54  41  52 /   0   0  70  90
FYV   31  52  39  50 /   0   0  90 100
BYV   30  52  38  49 /   0   0  90 100
MKO   34  55  43  55 /   0   0  90  90
MIO   30  53  41  51 /   0   0  90 100
F10   34  55  44  58 /   0   0  90  90
HHW   35  56  43  59 /   0   0  90  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30