096
FXUS64 KTSA 240445
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of
   locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The
   possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity.

 - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday
   with damaging wind potential the primary hazard.

 - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until
   widespread beneficial rainfall occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The immediate near term concern is the likelihood of at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm development after midnight,
beginning initially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
eventually working south and eastward toward daybreak, all in
response to an increasing low level jet. There have already been
signs of the initial development late this evening on KINX, along
with other echoes across northwest Arkansas that have bubbled much
of the evening. The expectation is for the potential for severe
weather, focused on a locally damaging wind threat, to be highest
in far northeast Oklahoma into northwest and west central
Arkansas. Locally heavy rain should be expected as well. The
overall trend into the daylight hours should be for an eastward
shift through mid to late morning, a notable lull early afternoon,
with a low chance of additional development in southeast Oklahoma
mid to late afternoon in association with another mid level speed
max.

In addition to the shower and thunderstorm potential through the
day, a portion of the area will continue to battle heat stress
concerns. A Heat Advisory will be issued for a part of east
central and southeast Oklahoma roughly along and south of I-40
and along and west of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This area is
less likely to have significant rainfall and convective debris
during the day and therefore, continued triple digit temperatures.
It is possible that if lesser thunderstorm development
materializes tonight and into the morning that this advisory will
need to be expanded northeastward on later shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday evening,
with a gradual decrease in the potential for further development
for much of the night, continuing into the day Tuesday. Overall,
warmer conditions areawide are expected Tuesday, with additional
heat headlines likely. The brief largely dry period for much of
Monday night and into Tuesday looks to end Tuesday night as a
fairly potent mid level disturbance moves into the area, leading
to the development of a thunderstorm complex that moves southward
into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Cooler
low level temperatures look to move southward into the area on the
heels of this disturbance for Wednesday, with roughly the northern
half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal. The more
normal temperatures should hang around into Thursday as well.

A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected by the
weekend, with the high pressure center shifting eastward. This
should bring a longer stretch of dry weather and a return to hot
temperatures areawide, particularly by Sunday and next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Scattered to overcast high clouds are forecast to remain common
through the period, along with few to broken mid clouds developing
late tonight and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return
overnight tonight through early Monday afternoon with a shortwave
dropping through the region. Greater potential looks to be early
to late morning Monday and will continue Prob30 groups for timing
for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, will
carry VCSH just outside of the Prob30 groups. Gusty to locally
strong winds, brief heavy rains, and brief MVFR conditions could
develop within the convection Monday morning. Winds through the
period continue to be easterly tonight and then transition between
east and south Monday. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions
are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  95  75  98 /  50  20   0   0
FSM   76  93  75 102 /  50  40  10  10
MLC   79 102  76 105 /  20  20  20   0
BVO   70  94  69  97 /  60  20   0   0
FYV   72  88  70  98 /  60  60  10   0
BYV   68  88  71  94 /  70  70  10   0
MKO   75  95  73 101 /  50  30  10   0
MIO   69  93  71  96 /  80  50   0   0
F10   76 100  74 102 /  30  20  10   0
HHW   77 103  77 103 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-065-
     066-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...20