529
FXUS64 KTSA 031106
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Weak cold front passes Wed. night - Thursday with a chance of
   showers and storms.

 - A stronger cold front passes on Friday with temps well below normal
   by the weekend. Showers and storms Friday through Friday night
   with a clearing trend in the north on Saturday.

 - Daily rain chances continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

After some patchy early morning fog, a mostly sunny and warmer day
is on tap today. Temperatures will still be slightly below normal
though, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A weak cold front will move into the area Wednesday night and will
wash out across the southern part of the forecast area by Thursday
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms that develop along the
front in southern Kansas late this afternoon may move into parts of
northeast Oklahoma and possibly far northwest Arkansas Wednesday
evening and overnight before weakening.

Another much stronger cold front will move across the area Friday. A
large temperature gradient is likely to set up across the area by
Friday afternoon, with temperatures near steady or falling into the
lower 70s across northeast Oklahoma, with lower 90s possible in
parts of west central Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will return with the front Friday,
but will increase Friday night to the north of the surface boundary
that may stall just to our south. Shower and storm chances will end
from the north during the day Saturday, but may continue across the
southern part of the forecast area. Temperatures will be much below
normal in all areas Saturday.

Daily rain chances are likely to return Sunday into the first part
of next week, with at least a low potential that moisture from the
remnants of tropical storm (soon to be hurricane) Lorena will make
its way into at least southern parts of our area. Temperatures will
remain well below normal through the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Some patchy low cloud and fog will drop conditions to MVFR or
even IFR in spots this morning. Used satellite to refine forecast
to the sites that have the best chance. After that burns off by
mid-morning, VFR conditions will prevail. Storms are expected to
form along an advancing front this afternoon across southern KS.
There is a chance that storms may cross the KS border into far
northeast OK this evening before dissipating. Decided to insert
prob30 at KBVO to cover this potential. By late tonight, the front
should push into NE OK. Some data suggests potential for low cloud
behind the front. Given low confidence this far out, have inserted
scattered low cloud mention for now.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  85  67 /   0  20   0  10
FSM   89  67  91  69 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   86  65  88  70 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   86  60  83  61 /   0  30   0  10
FYV   85  60  86  64 /   0  20   0   0
BYV   84  61  84  63 /   0  20   0   0
MKO   86  64  87  68 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   84  61  83  62 /   0  40   0  10
F10   85  63  86  66 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   86  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30