131
FXUS64 KTSA 162302
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
602 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring low-
medium chances (20-50%) for storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas late tonight and Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
Advisories likely.

 - Low chance (20%) of showers and storms in far southeast Oklahoma
Saturday associated with a possible tropical disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A weak cold front will drop south into southern Kansas late tonight
before stalling near the Kansas/Oklahoma border Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front may move into parts
of northeast Oklahoma late tonight, with the highest rain chances
near the Kansas border. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Shower and storm chances will continue Thursday across parts of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas in the vicinity of the
weak frontal boundary. The front will wash out by Friday, and an
upper ridge will then build over the area for this weekend and
beyond. This will lead to an extended period of hot and humid
weather with very little chance of precipitation. The lone exception
may be across far southeast Oklahoma Saturday as a tropical
disturbance passes to our east bringing a low chance of showers and
storms to that area.  Heat headlines will likely be needed by

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A couple showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening
before dissipating, but impacts remain unlikely at any particular
site. By late overnight into the morning hours, a weak frontal
boundary will sag south into northern Oklahoma and bring renewed
rain and thunder chances. Maintained PROB30s in place across NE
OK sites during the morning hours, with BVO most likely to
experience any impacts. There is a low chance of additional
shower and storm development during the afternoon hours with
potential for impacts across NE OK and NW AR sites. However,
confidence was not high enough at this time to include mention for
any site other than BVO. Any storms this evening and tomorrow may
produce heavy rainfall, locally reduced vsbys, and gusty winds.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
light south-southwest winds, becoming variable near the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  75  96 /  20  30  10   0
FSM   76  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   75  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   74  91  72  96 /  30  50  20   0
FYV   72  92  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   72  91  71  95 /  10  30  10  10
MKO   75  94  73  95 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   74  91  73  94 /  20  50  20  10
F10   75  94  73  95 /  10  20   0   0
HHW   74  94  73  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43