647
FXUS64 KTSA 081652
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

  - Near average temperatures today with predominantly dry conditions.
    Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through
    the weekend.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in
    limited fire weather concerns for the weekend.

  - Low rain chances may return early next week, but confidence
    remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A quiet, pleasant October day is in store through the afternoon as
skies clear and temperatures top out in the 70s to low 80s(south).
Generally light ENE winds will persist, becoming mostly calm after
sunset under influence of the surface ridge axis. A seasonably cool
night is expected across the region as lows dip into the 50s for
most places.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

One more seasonably mild day is in store for Thursday as surface
ridging begins to shift eastward and southerly flow returns to the
Southern Plains. Dry conditions are once again expected, though a
light shower or sprinkles will be possible across far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas a weak wave passes in the northwest
flow aloft Thursday night into Friday morning. Any rainfall amounts
would be less than one tenth of an inch if anything. After Thursday,
upper level heights rise into the weekend and mid level ridging
builds back into the area, allowing a return to well above normal
temperatures and continued dry weather. Southwest flow aloft will
increase to the west of the local region by late weekend troughing
takes over across the western CONUS. A strengthening surface cyclone
will aid in tightening the pressure gradient by Sunday, with
increasing wind speeds and gusts forecast by Sunday afternoon. That
combined with temperatures near 90 and min RH values dropping below
30% will allow at least a limited fire weather threat to develop
Sunday afternoon west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma. Recent
dry weather will also likely allow for more receptive fuels for
grassland wildfire concerns on Sunday.

A mainly warm and dry forecast will continue into the middle part of
next week. some low end shower/storm chances will enter the forecast
on Monday as a plume of tropical like moisture from remnants of a
couple of tropical systems in the eastern Pacific will track
northeast on the fringes of the western CONUS trough across the
Central Plains. Additionally, a shortwave moving through the Plains
in the larger flow aloft could push a frontal boundary near the area
during this time as well as the mid level ridge becomes flattened to
the south a bit. Guidance still remains divergent on how far south
this boundary gets and thus how far into the area rain chances will
push. Will lean toward a more northern scenario given recent trends
and the strength of the ridge over the Southern Plains. Thus
mentionable PoPs will remain confined to northwest of I-44 on
Monday. Upper ridging builds back northward toward the middle of the
week and persistent warm and dry conditions are forecast to close
out the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Stratus deck has eroded over most terminals, however MVFR
ceilings continue to expand across west central AR and trends in
visibility imagery show this cloud deck thickening and expanding
into far NW AR. Expect potential flight level impacts for NW AR
terminals with VFR conditions most likely to prevail across E OK.
Mid level cloud thickens overnight with VFR conditions most likely
to prevail area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  83  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  81  55  84 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   52  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  74  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  78  55  80 /   0   0   0  10
F10   59  81  56  85 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   61  82  56  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04