008
FXUS64 KTSA 201140
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday through Sunday
   night into Monday as a slow moving cold front passes. A few
   strong to severe storms may occur Sunday afternoon and evening.

 - Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive Monday and persist
   through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early Sunday
morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma, mainly to the north of
Interstate 44. This activity is likely to diminish by midday, with
additional storm development expected Sunday afternoon in the
vicinity of a cold front that will be moving through northeast
Oklahoma at that time. A few strong to severe storms may occur
Sunday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the main
severe weather threat with hail a secondary threat. Afternoon high
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Shower and storm coverage will likely increase somewhat during
the evening and expand south and east as the front likewise pushes
slowly south and east. The severe weather threat will likely
diminish by late evening and overnight as instability wanes, but
locally heavy rainfall may occur. Shower and storm chances linger
through Monday from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas
before the cold front finally clears the area. Much cooler weather
will then prevail for much of the next week, with temperatures
near the seasonal averages. Low shower and storm chances may
return to parts of northeast Oklahoma late in the week as an upper
level storm system passes to the north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds become common through
this evening across the CWA in advance of a cold front moving into
the region. Also scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to develop and move into eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and into
northwest Arkansas this evening. Within the convection, gusty
winds, locally heavy rain, and brief MVFR conditions could be
possible. Will continue with VCSH and Prob30 groups for timing of
greater potential. Behind the precip and frontal boundary, broken
high clouds remain for much of the CWA, while trying to scatter
out in northeast Oklahoma. If clouds can scatter, there is
potential for MVFR ceilings to develop late in the period in
northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  68  83  64 /  50  60  10   0
FSM   99  73  92  70 /   0  30  30   0
MLC   99  70  90  67 /  20  60  30   0
BVO   89  64  83  59 /  40  60  10   0
FYV   95  66  86  62 /  10  40  40   0
BYV   94  69  87  64 /  10  50  50   0
MKO   96  66  87  63 /  30  70  20   0
MIO   89  65  82  60 /  40  60  20   0
F10   95  66  86  63 /  40  70  20   0
HHW   99  71  95  69 /   0  40  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20