393
FXUS64 KTSA 160839
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

  - Seasonably warm and mostly dry today; chance of showers/storms
    overnight tonight for portions of northeast OK.

  - Unseasonably hot on Tuesday. Heat index values jump between
    95-105 degrees.

  - Another weather system will move through the area and will
    bring increased storms chances from late Tuesday night into
    Wednesday.

  - Summer-like conditions are expected late in the week and into
    the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Upper-level heights will rise today as ridging, centered over
northwest Mexico and west TX, noses over the forecast area.
Maintained some low-end mentionable PoPs (15-20% chance) across
the far eastern counties of the CWA as some residual, wrap-around
moisture remains on the backside of the departing upper-level.
Otherwise, most locations will remain dry today. Clouds will be
slow to clear, but clearing should occur from west to east through
the daytime, with mostly sunny skies by sunset this evening.
Lowered daytime high temperatures a degree or two from what the
NBM solution, mostly due to a soggy, saturated ground still in
place. Regardless, high temperatures will hover around seasonal
average, generally in the mid-upper 80s, perhaps touching 90
degrees in the warmer-prone locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Forecast uncertainty increases tonight as a subtle shortwave
trough ejects off the Rockies this evening and slides across the
Plains overnight tonight and into early Tuesday morning. There is
high variability in both the global models and hi-res CAMs with
what occurs with this wave. Consensus in CAMs show a cluster of
storms or an MCS developing across NE/KS and pushing into OK by
early Tuesday morning. Each model shows a different solution that
may happen, depending on evolution and trajectory of the said
shortwave trough. For now, added in low-end rain/storms chances
(20%) across portions of northeast OK and non-mentionable PoPs
(10%) elsewhere late tonight into Tuesday morning with high
uncertainty. These probabilities will certainly be adjusted in the
afternoon forecast package. If storms are able to stay organized
and hold together, gusty winds may be associated with them.

The rest of Tuesday looks mostly dry and unseasonably warm as
strong warm air advection occurs during the daytime. A lee-side
low will develop and deepen over the High Plains and will cause
southerly winds to become breezy during the daytime. Widespread
southerly gusts 20-30 mph are likely in the afternoon, highest
gusts in northeast OK. Daytime highs will soar into the low-mid
90s for most locations. The hot and humid conditions will lead to
heat index values between 95-105 degrees through the afternoon. Be
sure to take the necessary precautions to stay cool and hydrated,
especially if outdoors on Tuesday.

The next upper-level shortwave trough will slide off the Rockies
Tuesday evening and will help push a cold front through western OK
by daybreak Wednesday morning. Models show another storm complex
developing across NE/KS late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Most of the best lift and upper-level support for storms will
stay north of the area, but the southern edge of the wave may
skid across the KS/OK border, perhaps even as far south as Highway
412, with best thunderstorm chances along and north of I-44
early-mid Wednesday morning before moving into northwest AR by
late morning or early afternoon. Another upper-level wave will
approach the area and help advance the cold front east/southeast
during the daytime Wednesday. Models show additional thunderstorm
development along/ahead of the frontal boundary by mid-late
afternoon Wednesday as the front moves through eastern OK and
northwest AR. A very unstable atmosphere will be in place by then
and storms that develop will likely be strong and/or severe, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards with
the strongest storms. Storms may linger into Wednesday night and
possibly into Thursday morning before dissipating.

Wednesday`s front will erode and dissipate on Thursday and dry
and unseasonably warm temperatures will unfold through the
remainder of the workweek and into next weekend as upper-level
ridging builds back over the region. Daytime high temperatures in
the low-mid 90s and overnight lows in the low-mid 70s will be
common Thursday-Sunday, with daytime heat index values in the
upper 90s to 100+ degrees each afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Low clouds and fog are expected to develop overnight and persist
into Monday morning, with IFR or lower conditions expected at most
sites. Conditions will improve after mid morning Monday, with VFR
conditions returning by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  71  93  76 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   88  72  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   88  72  93  76 /   0  10  10   0
BVO   86  68  92  73 /   0  20  10  20
FYV   84  68  91  73 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   83  67  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   84  70  91  76 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   85  68  91  73 /   0   0  20  20
F10   86  70  92  75 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   87  73  90  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05