663
FXUS64 KTSA 231135
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Near normal temperatures continue through Friday for most
   locations.

 - Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma,
   through Saturday morning.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely late this weekend into next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Cooler and drier conditions have filtered in behind the frontal
boundary that moved through the region today. Lower dewpoints and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 70s
and upper 60s across the forecast area by Thursday morning.
Increasing cloud cover and low rain chances will arrive, mainly
along the OK/KS border during the morning hours Thursday as
remnants from an overnight complex of showers and storms drops
southeast across Kansas around the periphery of the upper ridge.
This activity will be in a weakening state, with mainly some brief
downpours and lightning expected with any storms across northeast
Oklahoma. Showers and storms should dissipate toward midday, but
lingering cloud cover over the region will keep temperatures in
check for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise across the rest of the
forecast area, clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 90s
will be common. Temps could hold in the upper 80s across the
north, where cloud cover lingers into the afternoon hours.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A stronger mid level wave will round the top of the ridge and drop
into the Central Plains Friday morning and progress southeastward
through the afternoon hours as the ridge retrogrades westward a
bit. The result will again be increasing cloud cover and at least
low to moderate rain chances over much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. The trough axis remains in the region through
Saturday morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
continuing through this period. Rain amounts generally look to be
light for most locations with some locally heavier amounts
possible within any thunderstorms. Southerly winds return on
Friday as well with dewpoints increasing, pushing heat indices
back near headline criteria Friday afternoon and especially by
Saturday as temperatures begin to warm above normal again.

Upper ridging builds back into the region in the wake of the
exiting shortwave this weekend. Hot and humid conditions will once
again return through the rest of the forecast period, with very
limited rain chances through much of next week. Triple digit
temperatures become more likely areawide by Sunday through mid
week, with heat headlines likely needed through the rest of the
forecast period. Ridging could then shift westward again by late
week allowing some slight relief to the heat and low rain chances
to return to parts of the area.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  77  93  81 /  10   0  20  20
FSM   94  75  94  79 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   95  77  94  80 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   89  74  91  78 /  20   0  30  40
FYV   89  71  90  76 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   86  69  89  75 /  10   0  20  20
MKO   92  75  93  78 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   87  73  90  77 /  20   0  20  50
F10   92  74  93  78 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   94  76  92  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05