682
FXUS64 KTSA 251642
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

 - Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will
   continue through early next week.

 - A slight chance of showers arrives Tuesday with higher rain
   chances next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper level ridge remains persistent over the southeastern CONUS
with a deep trough in the Rockies. Persistence of this pattern will
continue to focus shortwave energy and any associated precipitation
to our west and north, though some increase in high and mid clouds
has been noted today. This might shave a degree or two off high
temps compared to yesterday, but in general this remains a
persistence forecast. Lows tonight will cool off nicely again with
dry airmass and light winds, with normally colder locations falling
below NBM numbers and more in line with CONSMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Little in the way of changes through Monday as current wave crossing
the Rockies steered tot he north. This will flatten the ridge enough
to allow a potential secondary wave to bring some light precip to
the far western portions of the forecast area by late Monday night
and early Tuesday. Any amounts remain light as the surface pattern
continues to favor bringing dry low level air in from the east.

A general breakdown in the southeast ridge is indicated by longer
range guidance, however any details at this point have yet to be
resolved. Not much change in he weather anticipated until possibly
next weekend with warm and dry conditions. Once the current pattern
does break it would likely be followed by more unsettled conditions
and increased rain chances, though not much of an indication of a
significant frontal passage at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, along with light,
primarily south-southeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  54  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   82  51  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   81  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   79  48  78  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   80  48  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   79  52  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   80  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   79  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
F10   81  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   80  55  79  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22