994
FXUS64 KTSA 070536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms again Sunday.
   Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

 - Moderate flooding on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday
   morning.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday
   afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of western
Arkansas with periods of rotation noted at times. Activity should
push off to the north and east over the next couple of hours, with
a lull in activity likely through the overnight hours. Some
showers and isolated storms could redevelop across southeast
Oklahoma through the overnight, but the widespread activity should
hold off until Sunday morning. The slow moving upper low will
continue to lift northeastward into Kansas during the day Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely become more numerous from
Sunday morning into the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Enough instability will develop by afternoon,
that a strong to severe storm will be possible. Mid level lapse
rates will steepen somewhat tomorrow given the cooling temps aloft
associated with the upper trough. Therefore, damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary concerns. Again, the tornado threat
will be non zero as well, especially as low level shear increases
toward the late afternoon and evening hours.

Additional heavy rainfall will also be likely with any showers
and storms as precipitable water values remain near climatological
max for this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates of one to two
inches per hour will once again be common through Sunday
afternoon. Convection should remain more scattered on Sunday,
leading to lower widespread rain totals, but localized totals will
still be high under any thunderstorms. Given the heavy rainfall
across the area Saturday, will extend the Flood Watch to the
southeast into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers and storms will lift northeast out of the forecast area
Sunday night, with a few showers/storms lingering into Monday
morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Upper ridging will then build into the region beginning Monday
through the middle part of the week, leading to more typical heat
and humidity across the region. Recent rainfall will also likely
help intensify dewpoints each afternoon, pushing heat indices into
the 105 range possibly as early as Monday for some locations and
definitely on Tuesday for much of the area. Heat headlines will be
likely during this time. A weak disturbance moving around the
periphery of the ridge could lead to a cluster of storm developing
across Kansas and making a run at far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. But storms
will be weakening rapidly with coming under influence of the
building ridge. Therefore, most look to remain dry for a couple of
days after this system exits.

A strong upper trough will then track eastward across the Central
and Northern Plains form mid to late week, pushing a frontal
boundary near the region. Increasing shower and storm chances will
again be the result, along with a slight reprieve on the intense
heat into the weekend. Another front could move through the area
over the weekend with additional storm chances and a bigger
cooldown possible with that system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Another complicated forecast with low cigs and periodic showers
and storms. An upper low to the west will slide across the region
on Sunday, bringing the unsettled weather chances. The 03Z HRRR
was more aggressive with storms across the south, impacting KMLC
and KFSM, as well as the far NW AR sites, impacting KFYV,KXNA,KROG
during the day. For these sites will insert prevailing showers and
VCTS along with TEMPO groups for storms. Will keep the prob30
mentions for NE OK sites. Low clouds will reduce conditions to
MVFR or IFR toward morning, with expectation that VFR conditions
will return Sunday afternoon and especially evening. Guidance
suggests shower and storm chances should end from west to east as
the low pressure moves away Sunday evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  89  77  92 /  50  20  10   0
FSM   74  91  76  94 /  40  10  10   0
MLC   76  90  78  92 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   71  88  75  93 /  60  20  10   0
FYV   72  86  75  90 /  50  20  10   0
BYV   70  87  73  90 /  60  40  10   0
MKO   73  89  75  90 /  40  10  10   0
MIO   71  88  75  92 /  80  40  10   0
F10   73  89  75  91 /  30   0   0   0
HHW   74  90  76  91 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for
     OKZ055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30