281
FXUS64 KTSA 052348
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 548 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Low clouds and fog will reform across much of the area tonight
   and Saturday morning

 - A cold front Sunday morning will result in continued cool
   weather through Monday but with clearing skies

 - Mild weather returns Tuesday onwards, with little to no chance
   of rain

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Areas of low clouds and fog have enveloped much of the area
today. Model guidance has been nearly useless, but short term
observational trends suggest these clouds will mostly diminish by
mid afternoon. However, confidence is low. With this in mind,
temperatures should still make it into the mid to upper 40s for
most locations.

Overnight tonight, lows will drop into the low to mid 30s with
widespread low clouds and fog returning. A Dense Fog Advisory will
most likely be needed at some point for at least portions of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Widespread low clouds and fog will be present Saturday morning over
most of if not the entire forecast area. A few areas could see
brief freezing fog. In spite of a warming airmass aloft, the
surface will remain chilly and inverted during the day Saturday.
With continued warm and moist advection above the surface, it will
be difficult to break out of the clouds once again. Lowered NBM
forecast temperatures substantially from the mid to upper 50s to
upper 40s to low 50s. If clouds end up being more stubborn, highs
may end up only reaching the mid 40s.

A cold front Sunday morning will clear out the clouds, with high
temperatures in the 40s and lows Monday morning in the low to mid
20s. Breezy northerly winds behind the cold front will create a
bit of a wind chill factor, with a few areas seeing "feels like"
temperatures as low as 20 F on Monday morning. Temperatures rise
slightly Monday afternoon, and more substantially Tuesday onwards
as a warming downslope (westerly) flow sets up. During that
period, well above normal readings will return with some areas
approaching 60 F. No rain is expected during the next week, if not
longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Ongoing high clouds spread over the rest of the CWA this evening
and remain common into Saturday while a weak shortwave moves
through the region. Underneath high clouds, MVFR conditions are
anticipated to reestablish themselves across the CWA overnight and
then fall further to LIFR/IFR conditions late tonight and Saturday
morning. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of greater
LIFR potential at each TAF site. Latest forecast indicates
conditions begin to improve mid/late morning with scattered to
broken MVFR ceilings Saturday afternoon. Winds through the period
start out light/variable and become southerly Saturday. The
exception to this will be KFSM where a more easterly wind
component is forecast Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   31  49  35  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  53  38  51 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   32  54  37  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  32  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  51  35  45 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   32  52  37  44 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   31  51  36  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   30  48  34  40 /   0   0   0   0
F10   31  51  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  54  39  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20