441
FXUS64 KTSA 080530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

An earlier cluster of showers and isolated storms that developed
southward into far northeast Oklahoma has dissipated, and now
attention turns to potential for a complex to affect part of the
area late tonight. An axis of relatively higher moisture at 850 mb
extends from west central AR into southeast KS, and this seems to
be a favored area for a weakening convective cluster to move
between 06z-12z tonight. This is basically in line with the
current forecast and see nothing in the 00z model data to warrant
significant changes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A boundary will sit north of the area Saturday with breezy southerly
flow bringing very warm and humid air into the area. High
temperatures Saturday will jump into the 90s, with some areas as
warm as the upper 90s. Low level moisture will be excessive, with
the 925 hPa specific humidity near the 99th percentile for the
date. Dew points in the low to perhaps mid 70s will result in heat
indices nearing or exceeding 100F for much of the area.

MCS activity will force the boundary into the area Sunday with
a 20-50% chance of rain. As the boundary moves in, model soundings
show too much warm and dry air above the surface layer for surface
based convective initiation. This means any precipitation that
does develop will rely on the more marginal elevated instability,
making it less certain as to whether any meaningful rain or
thunder will occur. Cooler and somewhat drier air will move in
behind the boundary with highs falling into the upper 70s Monday.
This boundary will then lift back north by Tuesday. This will
bring one more chance of rain to the area, focusing south of I-40.
Model guidance does not agree on the specifics of this
progression, with uncertainties with respect to the amount of dry
air intrusion and the location and intensity of precipitation that
develops Monday- Tuesday. Notably, most of the cooler and wetter
solutions are from the GEFS model suite, but not all. Accordingly,
did not stray far from the NBM.

Ensemble guidance is in better agreement for the middle to end of
next week with strong high pressure building over and west of the
area. Cluster analysis still shows some ensemble variability, with
the GEFS mostly showing less amplified solutions while the EPS and
CMCE are split with respect to a more amplified ridge across the
west or northern Plains. Either way, this will cause another period
of hot and humid weather with limited rain possibilities for the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered high based showers and storms are expected across NE OK
through far NW AR tonight. Any terminal impacts are likely to be
brief however gusty winds are possible even with the weaker precip
as strong low level jet aligns across the region. By morning the
focus for any ongoing precip will across NW AR and then ending by
mid morning. VFR conditions and gusty winds through the day.
Additional evening storms expected late Saturday but initial
development is likely to be north of NE OK and no mention at local
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  86  66  79 /  10  40  40  30
FSM   73  92  69  83 /   0  20  30  30
MLC   74  91  68  81 /   0  20  30  40
BVO   69  82  61  80 /  30  40  40  20
FYV   70  85  63  81 /  10  50  40  30
BYV   69  80  61  78 /  20  60  40  30
MKO   72  87  67  78 /  10  30  40  30
MIO   69  79  60  78 /  40  60  40  20
F10   72  88  66  78 /   0  30  50  40
HHW   71  91  70  82 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07