550
FXUS64 KTSA 021738
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1138 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives dropping temperatures back well below
   normal for Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances remain low... some light drizzle or
   freezing drizzle possible Wednesday night into Thursday and
   low rain chances Thursday near the Red River.

 - Warmer by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Skies have cleared with a return to light south winds, and after a
cold start all areas will see afternoon highs in the 40s, with
some lower 50s in parts of eastern OK. Light south winds will
result in milder overnight lows, though some normally colder spots
again will likely drop well below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Most of Wednesday the area will reside ahead of another strong
cold front that will move into parts of northeast OK during the
afternoon. The frontal passage itself should remain dry with a
shift to north winds and a return to notably colder temperatures
by Thursday morning for most of the area. Of some concern will be
the moisture profiles by later Wednesday evening through a good
part of Thursday behind the front, as higher-res models soundings
show a shallow near saturated layer beneath frontal inversion,
which supports some formation of drizzle or freezing drizzle with
the presence of some very subtle shortwave energy. The dendritic
growth zone remains dry, with possible exception of a period
Thursday afternoon as a more notable mid level wave approaches.
Main message here is a low potential for light icing that could
impact Thursday morning commute.

The above mentioned wave will also interact with plume of better
moisture residing across TX/LA with some light rain potential
Thursday and Thursday night generally near and south of I-40. Some
light icing potential may develop with this precipitation as
well, mainly early Thursday in areas that are still below
freezing. and again Thursday night across higher terrain of NW AR
and SE OK if any precip can linger as temps fall below freezing.
Also appears that this would be of low impact.

Progressive pattern will lead to quick warm up Friday and
Saturday. A weaker front is expected by Sunday, but the pattern
next week favors dry weather with temps mostly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Skies have cleared across the TAFs sites, with mainly clear
skies forecast into tonight. Some fog is expected in the
terrain areas tonight in southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Any significant fog is expected to stay east and
and southeast of the TAF locations. Some low clouds will
develop in parts of eastern Oklahoma tomorrow morning.
MVFR ceilings could start to develop toward 18Z, particularly
after this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  49  24  36 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   28  53  33  43 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   32  55  30  41 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   25  47  20  34 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   27  50  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   27  50  25  37 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   30  52  28  40 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   27  47  20  35 /   0   0  10  10
F10   30  52  26  38 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   30  55  36  44 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08