495
FXUS64 KTSA 280548
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - Training of showers and storms along a stationary boundary this
   morning could lead to areas of flooding across far northeast
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A Flood Watch remains in
   effect until 1 PM.

 - Limited severe threat this afternoon, mainly across southeast
   Oklahoma.

 - Drying conditions and well below normal temperatures forecast
   through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Today)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Higher moisture has lifted north through much of the FA as of early
this morning, setting the stage for an episode of heavy rainfall and
potential for flash flooding today. As the low level jet increases
through the early morning hours, shower and thunderstorm coverage
will increase significantly along a nearly stationary boundary
extending from SE KS to W AR with the aid of an approaching
shortwave. Overall, the forecast philosophy remains similar to
previous discussions, and still expect an axis of heavy, training
thunderstorms moving parallel to the boundary across portions of NE
OK and NW AR this morning.

Near term guidance continues to support potential for a narrow band
of very heavy rain totals around 2-4 inches across NE OK and NW AR,
with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches possible. Given
higher available instability and PWATs approaching 2 inches,
rainfall rates could exceed 1-2 inches an hour at times. Thus,
despite the drier pattern of the past couple weeks, flash flooding
will become a serious concern and a Flood Watch remains in effect
until 1 PM this afternoon for northern parts of the FA. The latest
data has trended slightly more west and south with the heaviest
rainfall, and the Flood Watch was also expanded by a row to the
south to account for this potential. Additionally, river flooding is
forecast for parts of NE OK and a mix of River Flood Warnings and
Flood Advisories have been issued as a result.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will navigate southward across the
remainder of E OK and W-Central AR through the afternoon, becoming
more progressive with time as the aforementioned wave and associated
front pass through the region. Heavy rain and flash flooding will
remain a concern for the remainder of the CWA today, but given the
tendency for quicker storm movement and less training, potential
should generally be less so than during the morning. Additionally,
the airmass becomes increasingly unstable with southward extent and
storms may intensify as they move into/ develop within this
environment across SE OK. With sufficient shear and veering wind
profiles, some storms may become severe, with a risk for damaging
winds and large hail. The tornado threat should remain quite low,
but not zero, with highest potential associated with any storms
interacting with the boundary.

High temperatures today will likely be held in the 60s and 70s
across NE OK and NW AR due to extensive cloud cover and rainfall.
Across SE OK, southerly flow and less cloudiness ahead of today`s
storm system could promote highs briefly in the 80s before storms
arrive from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue this evening and tonight as
the sfc trough and frontal zone sag south. An area of low level FGEN
forcing and increasing LLJ will focus highest precip chances across
the southern half of the area during the overnight period, with
lesser chances north. Heading into tomorrow, sfc high pressure
attempts to build in behind the departing trough promoting a drying
trend. Low PoPs will remain across far SE OK but any QPF is expected
to remain light. Daily low shower/ storm chances continue through
the weekend, mainly across far southern and western parts of the
CWA, but most locations are currently expected to remain dry in this
regime.

Northwest flow aloft will continue across the plains next week due
to persistent longwave troughing anchored over the E CONUS. As
shortwaves embedded in the flow round the base of the trough,
periodic rain chances may return to E OK and NW AR... though
guidance varies in terms of timing and position. For now, NBM PoPs
seemed appropriate with generally low rain chances returning around
midweek. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this time of
year over the weekend before warming closer to average next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Ceilings will lower to IFR at all sites by around sunrise.
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread overnight
and this morning at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas sites and will spread south with time during the day
today. Ceilings may improve to MVFR this afternoon except at KMLC
where shower and storm chances may linger into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  65  75  65 / 100  40  20  10
FSM   68  66  76  66 /  90  70  30  10
MLC   78  67  76  65 /  90  80  40  20
BVO   71  60  76  60 / 100  30  10  10
FYV   70  61  74  60 /  90  50  20  10
BYV   69  61  74  59 / 100  40  20  10
MKO   68  65  74  64 /  90  60  30  10
MIO   72  62  77  61 / 100  30  10  10
F10   72  65  74  64 /  90  60  30  10
HHW   86  68  78  67 /  80  80  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ054>063-067>069.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05