Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
862 FXUS64 KTSA 161722 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through Saturday. - A cold front brings shower and storm chances Friday night into Saturday with a risk of severe weather, especially Saturday afternoon. - A brief cool down Sunday then temperatures roller coaster next week. Additional rain chances remain low and mainly across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The trend of warm and dry continues today as the region remains under the influence of mid and upper level ridging. High temperatures may be slightly cooler today as high level cloud cover begins to increase from the south... but most locations are still likely to land in the 80s this afternoon. High pressure/ ridging will become increasingly suppressed tonight as an upper low moves off the Rockies and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a shortwave currently located over S Texas will navigate north into the FA overnight. Sensible weather impacts from this feature should be fairly subtle, likely just producing more cloud cover and warmer overnight temps. A couple light showers could develop across SE OK as the wave passes overhead... but the probability remains too low to include mentionable PoPs in the forecast and QPF is likely to be very light, if any. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The shortwave exits the area to the northeast by mid day tomorrow. Meanwhile, amplified troughing digs into the Desert Southwest states, resulting in increasing southwest flow over the southern Plains. This will provide warmer temperatures tomorrow, similar to previous days, in the mid-upper 80s. Southerly low level flow increases through the day and into the overnight period, bringing better moisture northward into the FA. As this occurs, a SW-NE oriented frontal boundary moves into SE KS and N-Central OK. Given falling heights ahead of the approaching trough, convection is expected to develop along the boundary just to the north and west of the CWA Friday evening. With persistent moisture advection, continued height falls, and a strong low level jet, showers and storms will probably continue and spread into NE OK during the overnight hours. The environment may be supportive of a couple strong to severe thunderstorms during this time, given sufficient instability and shear parameters. However, the better chance of severe weather develops as we move into Saturday. By Saturday morning, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across NE OK and expand into NW AR as the Desert SW wave moves into the southern Plains. This wave begins to take on a neutral to negative tilt as it pushes into E OK, with a surface low developing in W/C OK and translating east. While morning convection poses some question regarding the level of destabilization for portions of the area, moderate to strong instability is still forecast to develop in the warm sector across far E OK and W AR Saturday morning into the afternoon. In combination with high bulk shear, sufficient lapse rates, and veering wind profiles, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop late Saturday morning through the late afternoon or early evening... initially over E OK then becoming increasingly focused across NW AR zones. All severe hazards will be possible including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The highest severe risk is currently anticipated to occur across far eastern Oklahoma, including southeast Oklahoma, and into northwest Arkansas. Storms conclude during the evening or early overnight hours as the trough exits to our east and dry air rushes in behind the associated cold front. Fairly strong post-frontal NW winds are forecast Saturday night, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Following the front, temperatures cool significantly for Sunday... falling to near or slightly below average (upper 60s/ lower 70s). Additionally, winds tend decrease through the day with mostly sunny skies under transitory high pressure... resulting in a delightful autumn day for the FA. This will be short-lived as a progressive synoptic pattern takes hold, bringing a period of `yoyo` temperatures to the area through mid week. Another trough and sfc cyclone move into the central Plains Monday, providing increasing southerly return flow and allowing temperatures to soar back up into the mid to upper 80s in E OK and in the upper 70s for NW AR. The associated cold front then passes through Monday night, bringing temperatures back down into the upper 60s and lower 70s for Tuesday. Some showers and/ or storms will be possible as this occurs, but this appears to be a drier system for the region and only slight chance PoPs were included for portions of far E OK and NW AR Monday night. Dry conditions with near average temperatures continue on Wednesday before another storm system may attempt to impact the region mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with an increase in high clouds tonight through Friday morning. Southeast winds today will drop off after sunset, followed by an increase in winds out of the south late in the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 88 68 85 / 0 0 40 50 FSM 64 88 68 85 / 10 0 10 70 MLC 65 88 68 86 / 10 0 20 50 BVO 61 86 63 82 / 0 10 60 50 FYV 60 84 64 81 / 0 0 20 80 BYV 62 82 65 81 / 0 0 20 80 MKO 64 86 68 85 / 0 0 30 60 MIO 64 84 65 81 / 0 0 50 70 F10 63 87 67 87 / 0 0 20 50 HHW 64 85 68 87 / 10 10 10 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...14