494
FXUS64 KTSA 181744
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM..., AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

 - Near record temperatures continue Friday and Saturday.

 - Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger
winds, especially on Saturday across eastern Oklahoma.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night and
increase Sunday through Sunday night as a slow moving cold   front
passes.

 - Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Persistent conditions continue this afternoon across the area with
near record to record heat forecast to continue areawide.
Temperatures will top out near 100 degrees again for most locations.
Slightly lower dewpoints should keep the region below heat advisory
criteria. Most of the area will remain dry as well, though an
isolated shower or two will be possible through the afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will be very warm by mid September standards,
as southerly winds likely tick up somewhat across northeast Oklahoma
in response to a tightening surface gradient and increasing low
level jet.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

At least one more record day is in store on Saturday as surface low
pressure advances eastward off the High Plains, further tightening
the pressure gradient leading to gusty southwesterly winds across
much of eastern Oklahoma. The gusty winds and continued lower
dewpoints will lead to heightened fire weather concerns Saturday
afternoon for both grassland and timber fuels, especially for the
more drought stricken areas. Remain aware of ongoing burn bans
across the area.

A welcome pattern change will arrive beginning late Saturday night in
the form of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop west of the forecast area Saturday evening and progress
eastward into Saturday night. These initial storms will likely stall
out and dissipate mainly north of I-44 Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Another uptick in showers and storms will then
accompany the actual cold front later Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon. Storm coverage will then spread southeastward with the
slowly advancing frontal boundary through early Monday. A few strong
to severe storms will be possible during the day Sunday, along with
locally heavy rainfall due to the slow frontal progression.

Rain chances will linger in to Monday as cooler, more seasonable air
filters into the region. Cloudiness and cooler surface high pressure
settling over the area could keep temperatures in the 70s Monday and
Tuesday, especially north of I-40, marking a notable cooldown
compared to previous weeks. The more seasonal conditions look to
persist through much of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with diurnal cu
expansion this afternoon. Winds remain light from the S-SW through
the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. South winds do
increase mid-morning Saturday with some gusts approaching 20 knots
across NE OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  77  99  76 /   0   0   0  20
FSM  102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  101  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  71  99  69 /   0   0   0  40
FYV   97  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   97  73  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  73  97  72 /   0   0   0  30
F10   99  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   99  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14