711
FXUS64 KTSA 202323
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon into
   tonight, with lower chances lingering into Monday as a slow
   moving cold front passes. A few strong to severe storms may
   occur this afternoon and evening.

 - Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive Monday and persist
   through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The much anticipated cold front is knocking on the doorstep of
northwest Osage County at the moment, with winds having shifted to
the north-northwest at the two Kay County Oklahoma Mesonet sites.
Expectations are for the front to make it roughly to the I-44
corridor by early to mid afternoon, placing areas along and south
of this location at most risk for strong to severe thunderstorm
development into the evening hours. At the moment, the instability
axis remains positioned along the western periphery of the
forecast area, which supports the idea offered by CAM trends that
when storms develop, there will be a southward surge favored by
the stronger storms. Whether that happens across or just west of
our forecast area remains somewhat in question, with recent trends
indicating a higher likelihood across our portion of southeast
Oklahoma compared to earlier model depictions. Damaging winds
remains the favored threat, with a widespread area of 1000-1500
J/kg of DCAPE across the area, maximized south of I-40. While
storms remain likely into parts of western Arkansas along the
front, the environment is less favorable for severe weather than
points to the west, albeit not zero.

The front will continue to push southward through the evening and
into the overnight, likely clearing the Red River areas before
daybreak Monday. Overnight lows will be noticeably cooler across
parts of northeast Oklahoma, particularly along the Kansas border,
but with the decrease in low level moisture lagging the wind
shift, a continued warm and humid feel can be expected roughly
along and south of I-40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A low chance of additional shower and thunderstorm development
will continue during the day Monday, mainly across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, nearest the front.
Activity tied to a second disturbance moving through the Central
Plains, well behind the front, is expected to remain northwest of
the area. Trended POPs on Monday toward the short-term blended
guidance, which depicts a faster areal and magnitude decrease as
the front moves away than the NBM data. Areas along and north of
Highway 412 should see highs on Monday and Tuesday right around
seasonal normals, while locations to the south will see
comparatively nicer but still well above normal temperatures.

Surface high pressure in the Great Lakes region will extend
southwestward into the area for the middle of the week, with the
main impact being a couple of mornings with true fall-feeling
temperatures. On Wednesday morning in particular, lower 50s may
be seen for areas near the Kansas border.

Upper level high pressure extends northward once again into the
area for Thursday, which should lead to a modest uptick in
temperatures, but with upper level trends being more progressive
than observed during the recent extreme heat, that feature is not
expected to hang around long. A period of southwest, trending to
zonal, flow late in the week and early in the weekend should bring
an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms and
temperatures near to just above normal. Upper level ridging may
make a return Sunday, with just above normal temperatures
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way
across E OK into NW AR this evening. Any aviation impacts through
the evening will be confined to near any thunderstorms where
temporary reductions in VSBY will be possible along with frequent
lightning. Storm activity should wind down later this evening.
Winds will shift to northerly for all sites with the passage of a
cold front, but generally remain around 10 knots or less through
the period. Low clouds with MVFR cigs are progged to filter in
from the north around sunrise tomorrow morning before lifting and
clearing out through the late morning and afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  84  65  83 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   74  92  70  91 /  40  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  68  90 /  60  20  10  10
BVO   61  82  57  81 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   66  87  62  86 /  50  20  10   0
BYV   69  86  65  83 /  50  20  10   0
MKO   67  88  64  87 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   65  82  61  80 /  50  10   0   0
F10   66  88  64  87 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   71  96  70  94 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04