164
FXUS64 KTSA 291825
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 - Well above average high temperatures and predominantly dry
   weather will continue Thursday.

 - Rain chances increase beginning early Friday morning through
   much of Saturday.

 - The potential for an impactful storm system early next week
   continues to increase, but specifics remain uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday )
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Weak mid level disturbance/vort max across southern Texas will
move north/northeast this afternoon and spread high clouds across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At the same time,
southerly low level flow will continue to aid 60+ deg dewpoints
and temperatures warming into the low 80s over the majority of the
CWA. This will likely be the warmest day of the seven day
forecast period.

Overnight tonight, the vort max is expected to lift into the
region and across eastern Oklahoma Friday. Low rain chances
develop over parts of southeast Oklahoma tonight and spread
northward into parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday morning. The
greater potential for rain is generally along and west of a
Bartlesville to Hugo line. Farther east...a low/mid level layer of
drier air should limit the eastward extent of the precip
potential.

Highest rain chances exist during the morning through early
afternoon hours mainly along and west of Highway 75 in northeast
Oklahoma as the vort max lifts through and exits the region.
During the afternoon hours, a slight chance of lingering showers
remains though the majority should be exiting by 21z. Overall,
conditions look to be mainly rain showers as instability and mid
level lapse rates are forecast to be marginal. Thus, will keep
thunder probs at and below 10 percent.

Temperatures tonight remain on the warm side with increasing cloud
cover and are anticipated to be cooler Friday as highs reach into
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Additional rain chances move back into the CWA Friday night and
Saturday with the parent mid level shortwave progged to push
east/northeast over the region. At this time, the greater rain
chances are forecast for southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas
through the day Saturday, and then over northwest Arkansas into
Saturday night before the shortwave departs. Timing wise, rain
chances begin to taper off Saturday afternoon/evening from west to
east and exit early Sunday evening. Thunder probs with the
shortwave are slightly higher, over southeast Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas with the base of the shortwave. For now will
carry slight chance of thunder for far southeast Oklahoma into
west central Arkansas Saturday afternoon/evening. Rainfall amounts
through Saturday night are forecast to be generally less than a
half inch.

Cloud cover holds on over the region Sunday in the wake of the
departing shortwave. Also Sunday/Sunday night, mid/upper heights
begin to rise with an increase in southerly low level flow. In
response, Sunday afternoon temperatures in the 70s are forecast,
while temperatures remain warm with the breezy southerly winds
Sunday night. These winds continue to increase during the day
Monday ahead of a stronger low pressure system and associated cold
front approaching from the west.

An area of low pressure off the Pacific northwest coast is progged
to drop east-southeast over the weekend and merge with a secondary
low moving into the CONUS within the subtropical jet. The new
parent low pressure system approaches the CWA Monday and moves
into the region Monday night and Tuesday. Shower and also
thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday, and become more
likely Monday night/Tuesday as the cold front makes its way
through the CWA. Increasing instability as well as a greater plume
of moisture spreading over the CWA ahead of the front will aid in
at least limited potential for strong/severe storms. Also, shear
vectors look to align along the front as it moves through which
will also aid in a heavy rain threat. Details will continue to
evolve as we approach the event, though the potential for impacts
has increased.

The low pressure system looks to exit during the middle of next
week, though differences remain with the potential for another
disturbance to drop into the region on the backside of the
exiting mid/upper level trof axis. However, one thing to note is
behind the cold front, more seasonal temperatures for early
November could move into the region for the second half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with scattered
clouds in the 5-8 kft range and increasing high clouds. Ceilings
will develop and lower to 4-7 kft Friday morning with scattered
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (10-20 percent chance,
too low to include in the TAFs). Storm activity will focus across
eastern OK, with only a small chance of precipitation reaching to
Arkansas. Winds will remain out of the south, slightly stronger in
the day, but gusts remaining below 15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  75  58  71 /  10  40  20  40
FSM   61  77  60  72 /   0  10  30  70
MLC   63  75  57  71 /  20  10  30  50
BVO   61  74  54  71 /  10  50  20  30
FYV   58  76  55  70 /   0   0  20  50
BYV   60  76  57  69 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  74  57  71 /  10  10  30  50
MIO   62  76  57  69 /   0  20  20  50
F10   63  74  57  71 /  20  20  30  50
HHW   65  76  59  72 /  10  10  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06