276
FXUS64 KTSA 251656
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Small scale wave across south central KS has helped maintain an
area of weak convection through the morning though a steady
decrease in coverage has occurred with eastward advance. This wave
will make slow progress eastward and may aid isolated convection
later today across NE OK and possibly far NW AR, but overall
coverage is expected to remain very low. Dewpoint trends are
running several degrees higher than forecast and the update will
address these trends. This will impact heat index forecasts and
should these higher values remain place into the afternoon then
portions of the heat advisory may need to be upgraded.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Predominantly "chance" PoPs persist for far E OK/ NW AR Wednesday
morning and afternoon to account for any ongoing convection &
redevelopment along the front during the day. Another wave is
forecast to move across C Plains Wednesday night into Thursday with
additional precip chances north and west of our area. Currently do
not expect this activity to impact our CWA, but this will need to be
watched as additional short term guidance becomes available for the
coming forecasts. Otherwise, low PoPs return this weekend as another
frontal boundary attempts to influence the region. Positive height
anomalies expand back into our area next week.

Regarding the heat... opted to issue another Heat Advisory on
Wednesday for parts of E OK and W-Central AR as heat indices are
again forecast to climb between 105-110 degrees. Convection may
complicate things, especially across AR counties, but with heat
indices forecast to approach warning criteria if left undisturbed in
the pre-frontal environment, felt an advisory was appropriate.
Thursday will feature slightly lower heat index values with drier
(and slightly cooler) air behind the front. However the intense heat
returns Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for
additional heat headlines. Above average temps are expected into
next week with highs in the 90s/ lower 100s and lows mainly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions ongoing across the region and will largely
continue through much of this forecast period. Weakening
convection along the OK/KS line marks influence of passing wave
and this feature may support additional isolated afternoon storms
across NE OK / NW AR but coverage will be too low to mention.
Additional storms may move into portions of the area late tonight
through Wed morning. Coverage and placement both remain uncertain
with slightly higher chances across western AR supportive of a
mention through the morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail
outside of any thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  78 100  74 /  10  20  20  10
FSM   99  78  98  76 /  10  30  40  10
MLC   97  78  98  74 /   0  20  20  10
BVO   99  73  98  69 /  20  20  10  20
FYV   96  72  95  69 /  10  40  50  10
BYV   96  72  92  68 /  20  50  70  10
MKO   96  77  98  73 /  10  30  30  10
MIO   96  72  94  69 /  20  40  30  10
F10   96  76  99  73 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  77  96  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07