390
FXUS64 KTSA 141813
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Potential for locally heavy rainfall exists thru Tuesday
   morning in association with an MCV tracking across southeast
   Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. A Flood Watch is in effect
   thru 10 AM Tuesday morning.

 - Rain/storm chances become more spotty and diurnally driven by
   Tuesday, with the best coverage remaining again in the east and
   south during the afternoon.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring chances
   for storms for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
   Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
   end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather
   will likely persist thru the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday morning )
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The main concern thru tonight into early Tuesday will be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Satellite
and radar obs indicate an area of low pressure aloft spinning over
NE TX, an MCV that formed from the storms and flooding down in
central TX yesterday. The morning CAMs and global models have a
decent handle on the system, which is expected to track northeast
along an upper trof axis across SE OK into NW AR thru early
Tuesday. Deep layer moisture content will be high along and east
of the low track, with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. We had locally
excessive rainfall down near Antlers, nearly 3.5 inches in 1-2
hours, and this gives us an idea of the potential. CAMs show a
signal for pockets of heavy rainfall along the track of the
MCV/low tonight, similar to what you would see with a remnant
tropical system. With the MCV providing a focus for more showers
and storms in the region, the potential for flooding warrants a
Flood Watch, which will be in effect thru 15Z Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The MCV/low is expected to depart to the northeast by mid-morning
Tuesday. In its wake, rain/storm coverage will be more isolated
to widely scattered and during afternoon peak heating in the east
and south, and most activity is expected to die off by evening.
The next focus for storms will be a front that will approach but
likely not move into the forecast area Thursday. Low storm chances
will be maintained near the Kansas and Missouri borders.

Ridging is expected to build in aloft by the end of the week, with
the latest data suggesting this will persist thru the weekend and
into the first part of next week. Rain/storm chances go down, and
the heat will go up. By the weekend, afternoon heat indices
between 100 and 105F will be common. Heat headlines may be
required.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Scattered, popcorn showers will be prevalent across the region
this afternoon, with occasional brief heavy downpours. Chances of
hitting a particular TAF site is still low to moderate, with more
coverage expected across western Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma
and less coverage across northeast Oklahoma. Still, will mention
at least some shower activity through the afternoon with better
thunder chances for SE OK and NW AR sites into the early evening.
More rain and thunder chances will increase late tonight and
tomorrow morning across western Arkansas again as a system lifts
up over the region. MVFR cigs will also likely fill back in for
those area tonight along with some patchy fog potential as high
moisture remain in place. Winds will come back mostly out of the
south and southwest around 10 knots toward the end of the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  92  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   73  91  75  94 /  40  20  10  10
MLC   71  91  74  93 /  20  20   0  10
BVO   70  92  73  94 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   70  88  72  91 /  30  20  10  20
BYV   69  88  72  92 /  40  30  10  20
MKO   72  90  74  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   71  90  74  92 /  20  10   0  10
F10   71  91  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   71  89  72  91 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-069-072-
     074>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04