190
FXUS64 KTSA 292346
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

 - Headline worthy heat continues through Thursday, with afternoon
   heat indices of 105-115F. Heat headlines may be needed for
   parts of the area Friday as well.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast
   from this afternoon through Friday, especially across northern
   and eastern portions of the area. Storms this afternoon and
   evening could drop locally heavy rainfall.

 - A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend
   into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

H5-H25 ridge remains centered today just to our west over the
southern Rockies and High Plains. A weak wave is in the RAP/HRRR
analysis over western KS, likely from previous convection. A
frontal boundary in association with a strong upper low over the
Northeast is draped from the Southeast back to central AR and then
northeast OK where it becomes more stationary. Heat index readings
as of noon are already meeting advisory criteria with the higher
dewpoints in the area in the vicinity of the front. The going heat
headlines for today will be carried forward with no changes.

The latest model data suggests we should expect to see scattered
afternoon showers and storms in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
lingering into the evening. Slow-moving storms in the high PWAT
environment could drop pockets of locally heavy rainfall as
hinted in the 1-2" spots in the HRRR QPF data. Models now suggest
more of a lull in the activity during the overnight, unlike the
data showed yesterday. Data is showing more development across KS
instead, possibly from the western KS wave. This activity will
probably try to work its way southeast down into the region
Thursday morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered higher based showers and storms dropping southeast from
KS Thursday morning will spread across portions of northeast OK
and northwest AR. Broken mid and high level clouds for much of the
day across the region should begin to scatter out from west to
east during the afternoon, allowing temperatures to quickly
rebound. With forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s and the high
dewpoints in place in the vicinity of the stalled front, forecast
heat indices are again expected to reach advisory levels over much
of eastern OK and west-central AR. A few locations could get close
to warning levels, but will let the next shift iron those details
out especially given uncertainties with cloud cover. Expect more
scattered showers and storms in the vicinity of the stalled front
over far eastern OK/western AR, which will be oriented more south
to north by this time as the ridge aloft to our west holds strong
and may even strengthen a bit with some subtle height rises
indicated in the data.

A shortwave trough/PV max noted in RAP analysis and WV imagery
over CA and the Great Basin is expected to top the ridge and then
drop southeast over the Plains Thursday night through Friday
night, strengthening as it heads equatorward. The latest CAMs
show a large MCS organizing with the system over the central
Plains Thursday night, with some of this activity possibly
dropping down into northeast OK by Friday morning. The surface
cool front is expected to push south into the region Friday
afternoon, with at least a few storms likely to focus along the
boundary into the evening as it pushes south. With the front not
arriving until later in the day, forecast highs are again expected
to climb to around triple digits across eastern OK and west-
central AR. Another round of heat headlines will probably be
needed for Friday as well, but that should be it for this stretch.

Relatively cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind
the front for the weekend. Below average temps for the first of
August and lower humidity will make for ideal conditions for
outdoor activities this weekend. Surface ridging is still in place
into Monday before south winds and higher dewpoints make a return
by midweek.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered convection ongoing is forecast into mid evening with a
weakening trend from the loss of daytime heating. Thus, will
continue with Prob30 groups for northwest Arkansas through 03z.
Otherwise, few to broken mid and high clouds are anticipated
tonight and Thursday over the CWA as an additional weak
disturbance in Kansas drops southeast into the region. Small
chances for showers/storms develop late tonight into Thursday
morning across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as
the disturbance enters the CWA. However, the greater potential for
convection is forecast for Thursday afternoon again over far
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will carry Prob30 groups
for these additional storm chances Thursday afternoon. Winds
through the period are expected to be variable to a more south-
southeasterly direction. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions
are anticipated through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  97  79  99 /  20  20  30  30
FSM   77  95  77  99 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   79  98  79 101 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   75  96  74  99 /  30  20  40  30
FYV   73  90  73  93 /  30  50  10  20
BYV   72  90  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
MKO   76  95  76  98 /  30  20  10  20
MIO   74  92  75  95 /  20  30  40  30
F10   76  98  76 100 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   77  96  77  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-059-063-068-
     069-154-172.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053-
     055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-254-272-276-354-
     376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20