858
FXUS64 KTSA 301812
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
112 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

 - Headline worthy heat continues through Friday, with afternoon
   heat indices of 105-115F.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast
   through Friday. Storms this afternoon and evening may drop
   locally heavy rainfall.

 - A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend
   into early next week, but the heat will return by the latter
   part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A 500mb ridge is centered over west TX and NM. The ridge is
strengthening and broadening its scope today, with some subtle
height rises over the region. At the surface, a stationary front
is draped from the Southeast to the ArkLaTex to central OK.
Moisture is pooled on the north/east side of the boundary across
eastern OK and NW AR. As of noon, several sites are already
hitting advisory criteria heat, and we are heading for another
day of warning level heat across a good portion of eastern OK as
the mid level cloud cover from this morning fades.

Model data suggests less convective coverage this afternoon and
evening compared to yesterday, possibly because of the rising mid
level heights aloft. Nevertheless, expect isolated to widely
scattered afternoon showers and storms mainly over far eastern OK
into western AR that should go away after sunset this evening.
Like yesterday, slow-moving storms in a high PWAT environment
(within the juicy frontal zone region) could drop locally heavy
rainfall.

A shortwave trough noted in satellite imagery and RAP analysis is
topping the ridge over WY/MT currently and is expected to make a
turn toward the southeast tonight. Lift ahead of the system is
expected to force a southeastward advancing MCS tonight across the
central Plains. A band of elevated showers and storms over KS may
drop down into NE OK by daybreak Friday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The aforementioned shortwave trough will strengthen as it heads
southeast over the Plains Friday into Saturday, as the 500mb ridge
center shifts west to the Desert Southwest. The band of elevated
showers and storms during the morning ahead of the system will
gradually fade as it heads southeast across the region. By
afternoon, the surface cool front will be dropping south into NE
OK and far NW AR and will continue south across the remainder of
the forecast area Friday night. Ahead of the front, another day of
headline level heat is expected, while some uncertainties due to
cloud cover and frontal timing remain, especially across the
north. Models show potential for isolated to scattered storms
along the front late in the day and into the evening. Deep layer
shear is not particularly strong over our area, but improves
closer to the surface and upper low track over MO. Thus, severe
potential looks pretty low.

Relatively cooler and drier air will filter into the region
behind the front, yielding a multi-day break from the oppressive
heat for the weekend into Monday.

Ridging aloft will eventually build back over the southern CONUS
later in the week, and southerly winds will return along with
gradually increasing humidity. Highs are expected to approach
triple digits by the latter part of next week in some areas. The
forecast looks dry for most areas, with possibly some low chances
returning for mid to late week in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Largely VFR conditions expected through the period outside of any
convective influences. Widely scattered showers and storms will
again be possible this afternoon, primarily across NW AR sites.
Otherwise, abundant mid and high cloud will continue over the
area with winds generally less than 10 knots out of the south to
southeast. Winds will veer to become more southwesterly later in
the period as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Low
thunderstorm chances will move into far NE OK early tomorrow
morning, with KBVO having the best chances at seeing any impacts
as of now.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 100  72  90 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   77  99  74  90 /  10  20  30   0
MLC   79 100  73  91 /  10  20  30   0
BVO   75  99  69  89 /  30  40   0   0
FYV   74  94  68  84 /  20  20  50  10
BYV   72  93  68  81 /  20  20  50  10
MKO   76  99  71  88 /  10  20  40   0
MIO   75  96  68  84 /  20  40  20   0
F10   77 101  71  90 /  10  20  30   0
HHW   77  99  76  91 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-
     055>059-063>065-068-069-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-059-063-065-
     068-154-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ060>062-
     066-067-070-071-073-074-176-272.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-060>062-064-066-067-070-071-073>075-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-229.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04