653
FXUS64 KTSA 171141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
641 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

  - Chance of showers/storms this morning across northeast
    Oklahoma with a low risk for severe weather.

  - Hot this afternoon with heat index values between 95 to 105 degrees.

  - Greater risk for severe weather tonight into Wednesday with a
    cold front.

  - Dry and Summer-like conditions are expected late in the week
    and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is diving southward across
Kansas early this morning and will likely approach northeast
Oklahoma later this morning.

By the time the MCS reaches the Oklahoma/Kansas border this
morning, storm intensity is expected to trend downward given the
presence of convective inhibition; however, there is a low risk
for strong to severe storms given the presence of a modest low-
level jet (~30 knots at 925 mb) and some elevated instability.

Temperatures will peak today with highs upper 80s to mid 90s deg
F with heat indices in the triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For tonight, another MCS is forecast to come south out of Kansas
that will bring a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Convective-allowing models indicate the potential of bowing
segments within the MCS--so there is even the potential for
significant (~75 mph) wind gusts (especially near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border).

Chances for scattered showers and storms continue into Wednesday
morning, mainly along and near the frontal boundary (aided by
isentropic ascent) which is expected to be draped across western
north Texas up through northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon chances along
and near this front will be aided by daytime heating with a
continued risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.

By Thursday, the ridge starts to build back in, reducing our rain
chances.

Temperatures begin to cool in northern Oklahoma on Wednesday to
the upper 80s as the frontal boundary moves through. By Thursday,
southerly flow will have returned allowing temperatures to climb
into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A severe thunderstorm complex may affect northeast OK terminals
through mid morning. Storms will have erratic winds and will
significantly reduce visibilities if they are able to sustain
themselves and move over the aerodromes. Some eastward progression
of the decaying complex may occur and affect portions of northwest
AR by mid-late afternoon. Added some PROB30 groups to XNA, FYV,
and ROG to capture this possibility. Otherwise, VFR should prevail
at all terminals by mid-late morning, once the areas of fog and
stratus erode across western/northwest AR. Another thunderstorm
complex will roll across northeast OK overnight tonight and into
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  75  86  70 /  40  60  30  10
FSM   94  76  91  73 /   0  10  50  40
MLC   93  75  88  70 /   0  10  40  30
BVO   91  72  85  65 /  50  70  20  10
FYV   91  73  86  68 /  10  20  50  30
BYV   91  72  86  67 /   0  20  60  30
MKO   91  74  85  69 /  10  30  50  20
MIO   90  71  84  65 /  30  60  40  10
F10   91  74  86  68 /  10  30  40  20
HHW   91  75  89  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99