289
FXUS64 KTSA 011130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances and well below
   normal temperatures forecast for the Labor Day holiday.

 - Those with outdoor plans for the holiday should consider
   sheltering options and remain weather aware, with lightning
   and low potential for locally heavy rain in the forecast.

 - Stronger cold front by late week will drop temperatures even
   further through next weekend, maintaining well below normal
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Upper level disturbances moving southeast in the northwest flow
aloft will continue to generate scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms today. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
in a few spots much as what occurred Sunday. Temperatures will
remain well below normal, with afternoon highs ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A stronger upper level disturbance will pass just to our
northeast Monday night allowing a weak cold front to drop south
across our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible, with the brunt of the precipitation shifting east into
far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day
Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will remain well below the seasonal
averages.

Wednesday looks to remain dry, with temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 80s. Another cold front will move into the area
Wednesday evening and overnight bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight, and cooler
temperatures to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
Thursday. The frontal boundary will be washing out by late
Thursday across southern parts of the area, so temperatures there
will be similar to those seen Wednesday.

A stronger cold front now appears likely to move across the area
Friday, with well below normal temperatures then expected through
next weekend. Precipitation chances during this period remain
uncertain and will be tied to the eventual southward push of the
Friday cold front. Stayed with the NBM solution for now with the
main shower and storm chances across the southern part of the
forecast area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast through the morning
hours across much of the CWA ahead of an area of low pressure and
weak cold front approaching from the north. Additional showers
along with a thunderstorm potential develops this afternoon and
evening with the front moving into the region. At this time, KBVO
looks to have the greater thunder potential. As the boundary
slowly moves over the region, additional rain chances remain
tonight for portions of the CWA. Locally heavy rain and brief MVFR
conditions are possible within the stronger showers and any
thunderstorm activity. Will continue with Tempo/Prob30 groups for
timing of greater precip potential through the TAF period.
Otherwise, scattered to overcast mid and high clouds should remain
common along with variable to east/southeasterly winds through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  65  80  62 /  40  40  10   0
FSM   84  66  84  65 /  30  40  30   0
MLC   82  65  82  62 /  30  20  30   0
BVO   81  60  79  57 /  40  40  10   0
FYV   80  60  81  58 /  40  40  30  10
BYV   80  61  80  59 /  40  40  30  10
MKO   82  64  80  61 /  30  30  20   0
MIO   78  61  79  57 /  40  40  20   0
F10   82  63  80  59 /  30  30  20   0
HHW   83  66  82  63 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20