232
FXUS64 KTSA 071737
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

 - Hot temperatures are expected through the week with a Heat
   Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central
   Arkansas Friday and Saturday.

 - Rain and storm chances continue for much of eastern Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas Friday night, and southeast Oklahoma
   into western Arkansas Saturday.

 - Drier conditions expected Sunday into next week with dangerous
   heat remaining a concern for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Early this afternoon a compact area of low pressure/vort max was
sliding southeast out of far southeast Kansas into far northeast
Oklahoma. At the same time, multiple outflow boundaries remained
across northeast Oklahoma to far northwest Arkansas. The
combination of these features drifting southeast through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will aid in continued shower/storm
chances through tonight. The greater storm potential is expected
this afternoon through the late evening hours mainly along and
south of the more defined outflow boundary currently from Creek co
to Delaware co. As a side note, the original boundary was also
located from Creek co to Carroll co.

Latest thinking is for storm coverage to remain isolated to widely
scattered through the afternoon for the CWA, and develop into
more scattered clusters this evening into tonight over east
central/southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. For the afternoon
to mid evening, hot and humid conditions along with an unstable
atmosphere will create a limited potential for strong to severe
storms. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat with a
secondary threat of hail. The limited strong/severe potential
looks to remain through the late evening hours before decreasing
from the weakening instability. Shower/storm chances remain into
the early morning hours Saturday for mainly south of Interstate
40, with the greater potential in far southeast Oklahoma. In
addition to the severe potential, a locally heavy rain threat also
exists into tonight from the ample amounts of atmospheric
moisture.

Also this afternoon into early evening, the hot and humid
conditions ahead of the outflow boundary are expected to create
high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 deg and heat index
values in 100 to 108 deg range. Thus, for now will continue with
the current Heat Advisory, though cloud cover and the outflow
boundaries could keep the northern periphery of the advisory from
reaching criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Shower/storm chances linger across parts of southeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas during the day Saturday before the remnants
of the surface boundaries and the compact area of low pressure
exit. Behind/north of the precip chances, cloud cover is forecast
to become more scattered allowing for hot/humid conditions to
spread over much of the CWA. Forecast high temperatures again in
the mid 90s to around 100 deg are anticipated along with heat
index values of 100 to 108 deg. Have issued a Heat Advisory for
much of eastern Oklahoma and also the Arkansas River valley of
west central Arkansas from Noon to 8 PM. Conditions in west
central Arkansas could be impacted from the low precip chances
depending on how long it lingers. Have also kept far southeast
Oklahoma out of the advisory due to the precip chances. Shower and
storm chances finally exit the CWA by Saturday evening.

High pressure centered out west is progged to expand eastward into
the southern Plains Sunday and remain through the first half of
next week. In response. the ongoing heat and humidity are forecast
to remain common for the CWA through the middle of next week.
Thus, afternoon temperatures of upper 90s to around 102 deg are
forecast for most locations, and combined with heat index values
of 100 to 109 deg will create likely heat headlines each day for
much of the CWA. There are some indications for the latter part of
next week for the ridge to retreat westward with a shortwave
dropping through the Plains. If this trend conditions, then
precip chances could return toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will ultimately prevail through the forecast period
for all sites. Although mostly quiet for the time being, daytime
heating and multiple ongoing outflow boundaries across the area will
likely promote additional convective development later this
afternoon and into this evening across E OK and NW AR. Made some
adjustments to the PROB30 groups in the TAFs to reflect latest CAM
guidance timing of precip. Movement of convection this afternoon
will shift generally from north to south or northwest to southeast
into this evening... possibly lingering through or just beyond
midnight tonight at KMLC and KFSM. Periods of MVFR/IFR/LIFR will
likely occur with more aggressive and heavier precipitation.
Prevailing surface winds stay generally light to moderate out of
south or southwest through the period, with erratic wind shifts
and gusts with storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  75 100  77 /  30  20   0   0
FSM  100  76  98  76 /  30  40  20   0
MLC  100  75  99  74 /  30  30  20   0
BVO   95  70 100  73 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   96  70  95  72 /  40  40  20   0
BYV   95  71  93  72 /  50  50  20   0
MKO   99  73  97  73 /  30  40  10   0
MIO   93  71  97  74 /  50  20  10   0
F10   99  73  99  73 /  30  30  10   0
HHW   98  75  96  74 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>068-070-
     071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-354.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-064>067-070-
     071-073-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ119-120-129-
     219-220.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67