074
FXUS64 KTSA 031751
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

 - Lower shower and storm chances through this afternoon.

 - Unsettled pattern and plentiful moisture return to maintain
   daily shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday through the
   weekend and into early next week. Heavy rain and localized
   flooding are the main concerns.

 - Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but an occasional
   strong and/or marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out
   almost each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A few showers linger across parts of northeast OK from activity
that occurred last night due to a remnant MCV. The remnant MCV
continues to retrograde westward early this afternoon. A few
showers and storms may form in its vicinity this afternoon, mainly
focused along and west of Highway 75 in OK. Not anticipating
anything severe or anything like the flooding seen yesterday
evening/night at this time, but isolated heavy rainfall may
briefly develop if storms initiate before sunset this evening.

Mid-level ridging will drift southeastward from the Midwest
Region and over the southeast CONUS late this afternoon and into
this evening. Despite this, ridging will still have a big
influence over the area this evening and overnight tonight, with
mostly dry and tranquil weather forecast. Expect overnight low
temperatures a few degrees above average, generally mid-upper 60s,
underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low-level moisture will
increase from south to north as a shortwave trough begins to move
over the Plains overnight tonight and into Thursday morning.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A series of upper-level waves will impact the area beginning
Thursday and cause daily precipitation chances through the weekend
and likely into early next week. First shortwave trough will
pinch off its parent upper-level low centered over northwest
Mexico and will move across the Central Plains during the daytime
Thursday; eastern OK and northwest AR will remain on its southern
periphery. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop through the daytime as the wave slowly passes to the north
and east of the area by Thursday night. The flow aloft stays
weak, so severe thunderstorms are not a concern, but moderate to
heavy rainfall will likely occur at times increasing flooding
concerns.

After a lull in activity late Thursday night into Friday morning,
the upper-level low over Mexico will slowly start lifting
northeastward towards west TX on Friday. As this occurs, it will
send another lobe of vorticity downstream and into the area,
causing additional showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon
and evening. Flooding/flash flooding will be the main concern
Friday as flow aloft stays weak and keeps the severe potential
low. As the upper-level low moves closer to the area late in the
week and into the upcoming weekend, precipitation chances will
further increase, with wider coverage and more heavier
precipitation moments. Latest model and ensemble data suggest the
heaviest rain and rainfall amounts will occur between Saturday
night and Monday night as the potent upper low moves over western
OK and eventually over KS. The flow aloft will become slightly
more favorable for at least marginally severe storms Sunday and
into Monday, but still think that heavy rain and flooding will be
the main concerns through the weekend and early next week. More
details to come. Beyond Monday, global models diverge with their
solutions. The 12z GFS builds in a stout ridge and would likely
keep precipitation low or very low through Wednesday. Meanwhile
the ECMWF maintains a very wavy pattern across OK and AR through
Wednesday before building in a ridge.

A plethora of cloud cover and rain will keep both daytime high
temperatures and overnight lows very similar each day/night
through the upcoming weekend. Most days will see high temperatures
generally in the low-mid 80s and lows generally in the upper 60s
or lower 70s. As the ridge builds Tuesday into Wednesday,
temperatures will further rise.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Outside of any impacts from showers/thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are likely today and tonight for all sites. An area of showers
continues in the vicinity of KBVO and west of KTUL/KRVS early this
afternoon. Additional precipitation will be possible through
early evening across E OK sites, with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. Short term guidance suggests KMLC has the highest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon, however, a low chance
of thunderstorms exists for all E OK sites. If lightning becomes
more likely across NE OK then amendments may be required for
KTUL/KRVS/KBVO. Predominantly dry conditions are expected
overnight before additional showers develop Thursday morning. Low
clouds will increase from south to north Thursday morning, with a
period of MVFR cigs expected across SE OK and W-Central AR.
Otherwise, mid and high clouds will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  70  85 /   0  20  10  20
FSM   68  84  69  87 /   0  50  20  40
MLC   69  85  70  86 /  10  40  10  30
BVO   65  85  68  85 /   0  20  10  20
FYV   66  82  68  84 /   0  40  10  30
BYV   62  81  66  83 /   0  30  10  40
MKO   67  83  68  84 /   0  40  20  30
MIO   65  85  68  85 /   0  20  10  20
F10   66  84  68  84 /   0  20  10  20
HHW   70  82  69  83 /  10  60  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67