168
FXUS64 KTSA 231129
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

 - Cooler, but still above average temperatures persist through
   the week.

 - Some thunderstorm chance returns by the weekend and early next
   week.

 - Much cooler and more seasonal weather expected behind a strong
   midweek cold front next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Main change made for tonight through sunrise Wednesday was adding
a low chance (20% or less) of showers near the Red River just
before sunrise. Confidence is very low at this time, but hi-res
models suggest some convergence occurring below 700mb in an area where
PWATs happen to be exceeding 1.5 inches near the Red River. There
is still uncertainty how this will evolve, but there is enough
evidence to support a few showers through mid morning.

Otherwise, tranquil weather will persevere Wednesday as upper-
level ridging expands northward from eastern TX. At the surface,
generally light winds will gradually transition from northeast to
more easterly by the afternoon. The northeasterly/easterly flow
should continue to draw in dry air and keep precipitation chance
near zero. Underneath partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies,
afternoon temperatures are forecast to warm up into the mid to
upper 80s north of I-40 and low to mid 90s south of I-40, warmest
near the Red River.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Near-persistent weather conditions are forecast for the second
half of the workweek. The aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge
axis is anticipated to remain fixed overhead Thursday and through
much of the day on Friday. Surface winds will remain light and
will slowly veer from east to southeast by Friday. Temperatures,
despite being noticeably cooler as of late, will remain a handful
of degrees warmer than seasonal average through Friday and into
the upcoming weekend. Expect daytime highs to range from the mid
to upper 80s (north) to low to mid 90s (south) and nighttime lows
generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Friday
into Friday night as a trough, with embedded shortwaves, begins
to moves over the Plains. Deterministic models show a weak
shortwave trough sideswiping the northwest corner of the CWA
Friday morning and into the afternoon. This will bring low
precipitation chances west of US-75 and north of I-44. No impacts
expected from this. The residual ridging overhead will keep the
main brunt of the trough and moisture plume northwest of the
forecast area, but as the ridge flattens late Friday night and
into Saturday morning, a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will occur for portions of eastern OK, with chances
likely persisting into the afternoon Saturday. Even better chances
of precipitation will arrive Saturday evening/night and into
Sunday as the main lobe of energy from the trough moves across
the area. The GFS and UKMET have been persistent with a more
robust shortwave trough moving across the area Saturday afternoon
and evening, showing widespread precipitation chances Saturday
night into Sunday. Despite shortwave ridging moving over the area
on Monday, low precipitation chances will persist for much of the
area as a subtle warm frontal boundary moves through the area.

Models and ensembles continue to indicate a vigorous, fall-like
trough moving over the Plains on Tuesday, with areawide showers
and thunderstorms associated with it through the daytime Tuesday.
The trough will also bring in a decently strong cold front that is
expected to move through sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Timing of the trough and surface front are subject to
change. The front is forecast to drop temperatures near to
slightly below average by midweek. Better details to come.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Patchy stratus and fog will impact far NW AR terminals through mid
morning with a low, but non zero, chance of brief impacts at other
forecast terminals. Expect VFR conditions area wide by late
morning and then persisting through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   90  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   90  65  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   84  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  57  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   89  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   82  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   92  67  91  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07