908
FXUS64 KTSA 020511
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - Decaying MCS tracks across E OK / NW AR Tuesday morning with
   additional afternoon storms possible along the remnant outflow
   boundary.

 - Cooler and drier weather Wednesday

 - Moisture return into late week with daily shower and
   thunderstorm chances returning through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MCS ongoing across SW KS is expected to continue ESE through the
overnight hours generally favoring the instability corridor along
the stalled frontal zone which extends through east central OK
into NW AR. The stronger flow remain confined west of the region
which should limit the strength of the MCS as it continues
eastward, however the strong instability corridor downstream of
the expected track will support at least a limited risk of severe
weather into the morning hours. The convection is likely to be
maintained to some degree on the southern flank into the day
Tuesday and either renewed intensity or fresh updrafts along the
associated outflow will be the focus across SE OK through the day
before the effective front pushes south of the forecast area by
mid to late afternoon. High temperatures will be impacted by the
extent and/or longevity of the more widespread rains but the
strong sun angle will allow a quick warm up with period of
clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Storm chances likely focus south and west of the region by early
Tuesday evening with sfc ridging building into the region and
leading to a pleasant Wednesday with cooler and drier conditions.
Southerly winds return Thursday and quickly advect deeper moisture
into the region ahead of a slow moving weak wave. Expect shower
and thunderstorm chances to increase Thursday with a more
widespread rain footprint on Friday. The pattern remains unsettled
through the weekend into early next week as a slow moving upper
low tracking from N Mexico and across the southern Plains.
Plentiful moisture and persistent forcing will likely yield
several periods of high rain chances over the weekend with locally
heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail overnight for much of the area. A
weakening line of storms may impact the area near dawn,
particularly near the Tulsa and KBVO terminals. If these storms
are able to maintain their integrity, the main hazards would be
strong winds, heavy rain, and lightning. During storms visibility
would briefly lower to 1-3 SM. A lesser chance of showers and
storms will spread southeast into the mid to late morning hours
(KMLC, KFSM). Otherwise, winds will be light and out of the
northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  84  66 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   90  66  85  65 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   92  69  87  67 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   88  66  84  62 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   87  62  83  63 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   83  59  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   90  67  84  66 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   87  64  82  63 /  20   0   0   0
F10   90  67  84  64 /  60   0   0   0
HHW   91  68  85  69 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06