260
FXUS64 KTSA 300530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

 - Low to medium daily rain chances (20-50%) and well below normal
   temperatures forecast through the Holiday weekend.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late next week will maintain well
   below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The current surface pattern resembles a more winter-like shallow
cold air scenario rather than a late August pattern, and this
pattern is forecast to persist today (and for the rest of the
weekend as well). The result has been and will continue to be
considerable low level cloudiness, except for some breaks in the
higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas and far southeast
Oklahoma, and much below normal temperatures. The warmest daytime
temperatures will continue to be across far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with cooler readings to the west. Afternoon high
temperatures today will generally range from the upper 70s to the
mid 80s. A few showers will be possible today across the western
part of the forecast area, mainly near and west of Highway 75.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Rain chances will increase later tonight into Sunday, especially
across eastern Oklahoma, as a shortwave moves southeast across the
area, with additional rain chances Monday into Tuesday as another
shortwave moves through accompanied by a reinforcing cold front.
Unseasonably cool daytime high temperatures will continue, with the
coolest readings continuing to be in the western part of the
forecast area.

A slight warmup, but still well below normal, will take place
Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front that will move across the
area late Wednesday night and Thursday. Much drier air will follow
this front, resulting in much below normal overnight lows to go
along with the continued much below normal daytime highs. Some of
the normally colder locations may see temperatures fall into the 40s
by late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Scattered to overcast mid clouds should remain common through the
TAF period across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. There
is a period early morning Saturday for potential MVFR conditions
across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. For
now will continue with Tempo groups for timing. Isolated rain
showers could develop during the day Saturday for eastern
Oklahoma, though with uncertainty of coverage and no anticipated
impacts to terminals will hold off on mentioning in the TAF.
Greater rain chances develop just outside this period. Winds
through the period remain variable to a general easterly
direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  78  65  79 /  40  40  30  30
FSM   69  83  68  82 /  10  20  20  30
MLC   67  80  66  81 /  40  40  30  30
BVO   64  78  61  78 /  50  50  40  30
FYV   64  81  62  80 /  10  20  20  30
BYV   64  80  62  79 /  10  10  20  30
MKO   67  79  66  80 /  30  30  30  30
MIO   65  79  63  78 /  30  30  30  40
F10   65  78  64  79 /  40  40  30  30
HHW   68  80  67  81 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20