428
FXUS64 KTSA 111244
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
744 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 744 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - Rain/storm chances wind down this morning and low chances will
   persist in the terrain of NW AR this afternoon. Afternoon highs
   will be warmer than yesterday but substantially cooler than the
   intense heat that was observed earlier in the week. Unseasonably
   hot temperatures return over the weekend through next week.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low
   in exact placement and coverage.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 24
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

WV imagery this morning clearly delineates a shortwave trough
aloft over the region moving slowly east. At the surface, the
outflow/front that pushed through with the storms yesterday has
stalled from central AR to extreme SE OK into NE TX.

The area of rain and storms will continue east this morning in
tandem with the upper trough. The forecast was updated to wind
down PoPs through the morning. CAMs show low afternoon
shower/storm potential in the terrain of NW AR and to the south of
the forecast area close to the boundary, which is not expected to
move much today. Since we stay on the north or cooler side of this
boundary today, afternoon highs will not get as hot as what was
observed earlier this week, though they will be warmer than
yesterday with more sun.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed
late this evening across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas in response to the mid level wave across the area. CAMs
continue to advertise some increase in coverage after midnight,
particularly across western Arkansas, although the overall
coverage and intensity appear to be less than earlier thought. One
noticeable forecast change with this package has been to decrease
the forecast rainfall using the most recent short-term blended
guidance. The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms
during the day will continue in this same area, although the
western edge will shift eastward with time.

Given the rains seen earlier today and some clearing across parts
of northeast Oklahoma north of I-44, patchy fog development will
be possible toward daybreak. A mention has been added to the
forecast through mid morning.

Temperatures will remain near to maybe a degree or two above
normal, depending on location, and likely slightly cooler than
the NBM initialization, especially in north and eastern parts of
the forecast area. Highs for Friday have been nudged closer to
the short-term blend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Most of the Friday night period should be dry, although a modest
increase in shower and thunderstorm potential exists for parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas toward daybreak
Saturday given the amount of low level warm advection. This
potential will continue through the day, although uncertainty
remains high regarding coverage and location of the greatest
potential. Forecast POPs on Saturday reflect a broadbrushed
version of a blend between the NBM and short-term blend. The highs
for Saturday have been left alone from the NBM given the
uncertainty regarding how much rain and convective cloud cover
will be around during the day. Heat headlines will need to at
least be considered for parts of the area Saturday.

Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will approach the
Kansas border from the north Saturday night into early Sunday, but
confidence is higher that this will not move too far south into
the area given the building upper level high. Highs on Sunday and
again on Monday are likely to be pushing triple digits across a
good chunk of the area. The NBM initialization was largely
accepted for highs both days, although some targeted increases
were applied to account for recent low biases at a few sites. Heat
headlines will likely be needed both days. Fire weather concerns
will increase once again on Sunday and especially on Monday due to
the return of gusty southerly winds.

Unseasonably hot conditions will extend through at least the
middle of next week, with only low chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the period, focused across areas near the
Kansas border and the northern edge of the upper high. Uncertainty
increases thereafter, with continued signs of another front
approaching the area late week into next weekend. The most recent
data indicates a later possible passage of this front than at this
same time yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of some
morning fog across portions of northeast Oklahoma, especially
impacting KBVO through mid morning. Showers and thunderstorms have
shifted east of TAF sites in W AR this morning and will continue
to push eastward through the morning hours. Some period of MVFR
cigs are possible through the morning as the system exits the
forecast area, with best chances across NW AR sites. Otherwise,
clearing skies are expected into the afternoon with generally
light winds through the period. More patchy fog development is
possible overnight tonight. Best chances look to impact KFYV by
early tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  94  74 /   0  20  30  10
FSM   92  72  98  74 /  30  20  20   0
MLC   94  72  99  73 /   0   0  30   0
BVO   89  67  93  67 /   0  20  30  20
FYV   88  67  95  67 /  20  30  30   0
BYV   86  68  93  70 /  20  20  30  10
MKO   91  70  95  71 /   0  20  20   0
MIO   88  68  92  70 /   0  20  20  20
F10   92  71  97  72 /   0   0  30   0
HHW   94  72  97  73 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04