522
FXUS64 KTSA 300507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

 - Headline worthy heat continues through Friday, with afternoon
   heat indices of 105-115F.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast
   through Friday, especially across northern and eastern parts of
   the area. Storms Thursday afternoon and evening may drop
   locally heavy rainfall.

 - A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend
   into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

While a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
the greater coverage of showers and storms is once again expected
to be in the afternoon, and again mainly in the eastern half of
the forecast area.

Dangerous heat will continue Thursday across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with afternoon heat index
values generally in the 105-110 degree range. A narrow corridor of
maximum heat index values at or just above 110 is expected across
parts of eastern Oklahoma, mainly just to the west of where the
greatest shower and storm coverage will be, and have upgraded this
area to an extreme heat warning. Depending on cloud/precipitation
trends during the day, some adjustments to the warning area may
be required.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

One final day of dangerous heat is expected Friday, with both
temperature and heat index values possibly a degree or two higher
than Thursday. Additional heat headlines will be likely Friday.
Shower and storm chances will continue Friday into Friday evening
as a cold front works its way south across the area during the
afternoon and evening.

Much cooler weather will prevail over the weekend following the
passage of the front, with below normal temperatures. A gradual
warming trend will then develop for next week, with temperatures
trending back up to near or above the seasonal averages by the
middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are forecast through the
TAF period across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A weak
disturbance is anticipated to move into and through the region early
Thursday morning into Thursday evening. In response, low shower and
thunderstorm chances develop for parts of northeast Oklahoma in the
morning and then spread over to northwest Arkansas for the
afternoon/early evening hours. Will continue with Prob30 groups for
general timing of greater potential. Besides the potential for
MVFR conditions within any convection, VFR conditions should persist
through the period. Lastly, winds between easterly and southerly
are expected for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  80 100 /  20  20  10  20
FSM   77  96  77 100 /  30  30  20  20
MLC   78 100  79 101 /  20  10  10  20
BVO   74  98  74  99 /  30  20  30  30
FYV   72  93  73  95 /  30  50  20  20
BYV   72  89  72  93 /  40  50  20  40
MKO   75  98  76 100 /  40  20  20  20
MIO   73  94  75  97 /  30  30  30  30
F10   75  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   76  99  77 100 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ058-059-063-
     065-068-154-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-
     053-055>057-060>062-064-066-067-070-071-073>075-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20