646
FXUS64 KTSA 280144
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
844 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

 - Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread east
   through the afternoon today

 - Training of showers and storms along a stationary boundary late
   tonight into Thursday could lead to areas of flooding across
   far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas

 - Drying conditions and well below normal temperatures forecast
   through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Heavy rainfall pattern continues to become established with well
defined low level stable layer and effective boundary becoming
oriented generally parallel to the steering winds aloft. VWP data
show the low level jet beginning to strengthen through western OK
and as this flow veers through the overnight hours the resultant
upglide will support a steady increase in shower and storm
coverage. Several hours of training cell potential looks likely
within a plume of near 2" precip water values. Short term guidance
has shifted slightly westward with the heaviest rain axis and the
flood watch was adjusted accordingly. The heaviest rain corridor
is likely to be rather narrow making impacts highly variable
depending on the exact location.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A weak mid level shortwave continues to progress eastward across
northern Oklahoma with a broad area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms currently spreading through northeast Oklahoma
through the afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts around one half inch
to three quarters of an inch will be possible with this activity
through the rest of the afternoon. More scattered, light showers
are noted across southeast Oklahoma which will spread into west
central Arkansas later this afternoon. Lighter rainfall amounts
can be expected with this activity. The cloud cover and rainfall
will hold temps down in the 70s through the afternoon as the well
below normal temperature trend continues. The showers and storms
will track off to the northeast with the departing wave with some
partially clearing skies behind the precip by this evening across
the region. A lull in activity is expected from this evening into
the early overnight hours with only some lingering showers
possible across far northeast Oklahoma this evening.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The main impact in this forecast period will begin early Thursday
morning and last through the day Thursday with both heavy
rainfall/flooding concerns, along with some severe weather
potential across the region during the day Thursday. A stronger,
convectively aided shortwave will track southeast from central
Kansas through eastern Oklahoma in the northwest flow aloft
tomorrow morning through the afternoon hours. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Wednesday night
across central Kansas and fill in along a quasi-stationary frontal
zone draped from southeast Kansas into western Arkansas. Low
level southerly flow increasing throughout the day today and into
Thursday morning will aid in pushing higher quality moisture air
northward and overtop this boundary by Thursday morning. More
instability available and high moisture content will likely lead
to some high rainfall rates (1 to 2 inch/hr.) within the
convective activity. Storms will also likely train over the same
area for several hours as the mean storm motion will parallel the
boundary and the area of greatest mid level ascent focuses along
the boundary from the early to mid morning hours Thursday across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A
narrow axis of heavy rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally
up to 6 plus inches will be possible in this zone. Though most of
August has been dry and most areas can likely handle some heavy
rain, the more intense rates and possible prolonged training of
storms has led to the issuance of a Flood Watch for these
locations where the heaviest rains are expected through early
afternoon Thursday.

Showers and storms should begin to push south and southwestward as
the shortwave tracks more into eastern Oklahoma and convectively
driven outflow boundaries merge and accelerate to the southwest
Thursday morning. This will lead to additional development across
eastern Oklahoma with some localized heavy rain potential, though
the storm should be more progressive through this period with no
watch expected currently. In addition to the heavy rain threat, at
least a conditional severe weather threat will evolve by Thursday
afternoon across parts of southeast Oklahoma. As the MCS is
ongoing across northeast Oklahoma, a surface low and cold front is
progged to develop across northwest Texas and likely merge with
the southwestward advancing outflow from the morning convective
activity. Southerly flow ahead of this cold front/outflow will
lead to dewpoints rebounding into the upper 60s to low 70s in
association with strong surface heating as highs jump back into
the 90s. This will allow MLCAPE values to near 2000J/kg by mid
afternoon. Redevelopment of convection is expected on the western
fringes of the morning outflow in this environment, though likely
more scattered in nature as the shortwave departs to the
southeast. Stronger shear within the veering wind profiles and
the thermodynamic environment show the potential for some strong
to severe storms to evolve in this environment. How much gets into
our forecast area will be dependent on how expansive the morning
MCS is. But, portions of southeast Oklahoma will have at least low
chances for some damaging wind gusts or severe hail with some of
the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon. Tornado chances are very
low, but not zero, especially any storms that can interact with
the boundary in the region to locally enhance the low level winds.

After Thursday, a more settled weather pattern will settle in for
the holiday weekend. Mostly dry weather and below normal
temperatures are forecast through much of the rest of the period.
Daily shower and storm chances will continue through Saturday,
mainly across far southeast Oklahoma, but most places will remain
dry through the weekend. A return to more southerly flow toward
the middle of next week could lead to more of a warmup back to
near normal temperatures across the region. Some signals show
another frontal passage toward the end of the forecast period with
more rain chances and maintaining the cooler temperatures.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Precip coverage has waned this evening and will likely remain
rather low into the early morning hours. Scattered storms may
initially develop before a larger storm complex spreads
southeastward overnight and through the day Thursday. Confidence
is high that all terminals will experience some flight impacts
though the duration and extent will likely vary. A mixture of VFR
to MVFR ceilings this evening will become more widespread MVFR to
IFR conditions as the storms pass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  75  64  75 /  70  90  50  20
FSM   67  74  66  76 /  60  90  80  30
MLC   68  85  66  76 /  30  80  90  40
BVO   64  73  60  76 /  90  90  40  10
FYV   63  69  60  75 /  90 100  60  30
BYV   60  67  60  74 /  90  90  50  20
MKO   65  75  64  74 /  60  90  70  20
MIO   63  72  61  77 / 100 100  30  10
F10   66  79  64  74 /  40  80  70  30
HHW   68  89  68  78 /  10  70  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon
     for OKZ054>058-061>063-068-069.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon
     for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07