782
FXUS64 KTSA 301722
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

 - Headline worthy heat continues through Friday, with afternoon
   heat indices of 105-115F.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast
   through Friday, especially across northern and eastern parts of
   the area. Storms Thursday afternoon and evening may drop
   locally heavy rainfall.

 - A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend
   into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

While a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
the greater coverage of showers and storms is once again expected
to be in the afternoon, and again mainly in the eastern half of
the forecast area.

Dangerous heat will continue Thursday across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with afternoon heat index
values generally in the 105-110 degree range. A narrow corridor of
maximum heat index values at or just above 110 is expected across
parts of eastern Oklahoma, mainly just to the west of where the
greatest shower and storm coverage will be, and have upgraded this
area to an extreme heat warning. Depending on cloud/precipitation
trends during the day, some adjustments to the warning area may
be required.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

One final day of dangerous heat is expected Friday, with both
temperature and heat index values possibly a degree or two higher
than Thursday. Additional heat headlines will be likely Friday.
Shower and storm chances will continue Friday into Friday evening
as a cold front works its way south across the area during the
afternoon and evening.

Much cooler weather will prevail over the weekend following the
passage of the front, with below normal temperatures. A gradual
warming trend will then develop for next week, with temperatures
trending back up to near or above the seasonal averages by the
middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Largely VFR conditions expected through the period outside of any
convective influences. Widely scattered showers and storms will
again be possible this afternoon, primarily across NW AR sites.
Otherwise, abundant mid and high cloud will continue over the
area with winds generally less than 10 knots out of the south to
southeast. Winds will veer to become more southwesterly later in
the period as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Low
thunderstorm chances will move into far NE OK early tomorrow
morning, with KBVO having the best chances at seeing any impacts
as of now.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 100  72  90 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   77  99  74  90 /  10  20  30   0
MLC   79 100  73  91 /  10  20  30   0
BVO   75  99  69  89 /  30  40   0   0
FYV   74  94  68  84 /  20  20  50  10
BYV   72  93  68  81 /  20  20  50  10
MKO   76  99  71  88 /  10  20  40   0
MIO   75  96  68  84 /  20  40  20   0
F10   77 101  71  90 /  10  20  30   0
HHW   77  99  76  91 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-
     055>059-063>065-068-069-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-059-063-065-
     068-154-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ060>062-
     066-067-070-071-073-074-176-272.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-060>062-064-066-067-070-071-073>075-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-229.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04