152
FXUS64 KTSA 022350
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - Widespread storms spreading west to east this evening through
   early Tuesday morning with severe weather and locally heavy
   rain impacts.

 - Temperatures nearer to seasonal averages mid week into next
   weekend. Mostly dry weather weather is forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Forecast has remained consistent through tonight. Initial
convection will spread into NE OK this afternoon with a limited
severe risk as updrafts largely remain elevated per 16z KOUN
sounding. A steady increase in sfc based storms is likely by late
afternoon from north central OK into N TX with expanding coverage
into several larger broken line segments by early evening as
storms move into E OK. The line of storms will continue eastward
overnight and move east of the local forecast area by mid Tuesday
morning.

The evening and overnight severe weather potential will be a
balance between meager instability and strong shear profiles
especially in the lowest levels. Bulk of guidance has favored
organized bowing segments along the line of storms into E OK with
a less organized structure further east into the early morning
hours. This evolution is plausible given the expected instability
gradients, however there remains concern for deeper moisture
advecting into SE OK and portions of western AR during the early
morning hours and the resultant influences. Forecast hodographs
become more enlarged across the forecast area from mid evening
through the overnight hours and, should sufficient instability
remain to balance this shear, then the severe weather potential
will remain defined through western AR as the line passes.
Specifically shear within the lowest 1km is forecast to increase
within ranges typically seen for at least sporadic wind damage
with even less intense updrafts and quickly developing tornado
identification will be a warning and communication challenge
through the entire event. The ability to be alerted to severe
weather warnings through the night time hours is a good reminder
for all.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cooler and breezy conditions follow the system on Tuesday as early
morning storms move east of the region and wrap around light
showers pass across NE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Another
notable shortwave rotates across the region on Thursday with light
precip potential with guidance remaining varied in overall
coverage. Otherwise, a dry forecast will prevail into next weekend
with temperatures nearer early November normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Broken VFR ceilings in eastern Oklahoma will give way to MVFR
conditions late evening into the overnight hours as a broken line
of convection moves into the region. Within the convection, strong
wind, heavy rain, and severe storm potentials exists. Will
continue with Tempo groups for timing of greater potential. To the
east, MVFR/low end VFR ceilings in northwest Arkansas are
expected to become mainly MVFR ceilings ahead of the approaching
convection. Again, strong wind, heavy rain, and severe potentials
exist within the storms. Behind the storms, a period of VFR
conditions looks to develop in eastern Oklahoma before additional
MVFR ceilings try to drop into the CWA on the backside of the low
pressure system Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions look to remain in
northwest Arkansas through much of the day behind the exiting
precip, though there could be a brief window for low end VFR
ceilings before MVFR clouds on the backside of the low moves in.
Winds through the period, start out gusty from the south to east,
become south to southwest behind the storms, and then out of the
west to northwest as the backside of the low moves across the CWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  67  47  68 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   66  72  51  69 /  90  50   0   0
MLC   58  68  45  69 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   54  66  41  66 /  90  20   0   0
FYV   58  70  40  66 / 100  60  20   0
BYV   64  71  48  65 /  90  80  20   0
MKO   59  68  46  68 / 100  10   0   0
MIO   60  66  46  64 / 100  20  10   0
F10   56  67  46  69 /  90   0   0   0
HHW   63  72  48  71 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20