898
FXUS64 KTSA 142003
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

  - Odds lean toward another storm complex tonight. But as
    each round of storms changes the setup for the next round
    confidence is not high on the details.

  - Flooding will be possible along the track of the storm
    complex tonight and Sunday morning.  A Flood Watch for
    parts of eastern Oklahoma has been issued. Since confidence
    on details is not high, monitor the latest information
    on changes to the flooding potential.

  - The chance for nighttime complexes diminishes next week, but
    a weather system moving through the area will bring increased
    storms chances from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

  - Hot and humid conditions are likely the later half of next
    week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The atmosphere over northeast Oklahoma has so far been slow to recover
from the earlier storms.  If this continues to be a slow process, the
setup for a storm complex tonight will change. At the moment, odds lean
toward diminishing clouds an precipitation in northeast Oklahoma over the
next few hours, and warm front gets re-established in far northeast Oklahoma.
Near and after sunset a modest low-level jet (35 kt) begins to develop across
Oklahoma and force lift near the front.  Scattered storms should develop in
far northeast around 9 - 11pm and gradually increase in coverage.  The main
thrust of the complex, if it can develop, should be toward the south-southeast
down into eastern Oklahoma, but the east edge could easily expand into western
Arkansas.  A Flood Watch has been issued for where the chances of excessive rain
are currently the highest. But the watch could need to be adjusted as details
evolve.  If a complex can develop, scattered severe gusts would be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Remnants of what develops tonight will move across the area Sunday and weaken
with time.  There is some low potential for a storm complex Sunday night, but the
probabilities are not too high.  Nighttime complex potential will drop early
next week, but the chance for storms will tick up from Tuesday evening into
Wednesday evening as tough aloft passes and forces a front into or close to
northeast Oklahoma. If the front does not make it, outflows will for a time.
Following this system heights will rise over the area and heat will build.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Ongoing convection will impact primarily KFSM and KMLC terminals
in the short term though held on to a tempo TS across NW AR sites
given stratiform region extending north from main line. NE OK
sites look to get a break before additional storms develop this
evening into the overnight hours Sunday morning and spread east.
The greatest uncertainty in this remains timing as multiple
rounds possible before activity moves south into southern OK and
west- central AR late Sunday morning. Went with more optimistic
MVFR/VFR cigs between convection overnight though likelihood of
IFR conditions developing not out of the question especially at
KFSM as some ensemble guidance suggests.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  71  83  69 /  30  70  40  30
FSM   88  72  88  72 /  60  30  40  20
MLC   87  71  86  69 /  60  30  50  20
BVO   81  68  82  67 /  20  70  40  30
FYV   81  68  83  67 /  60  50  50  30
BYV   82  67  84  67 /  40  40  50  30
MKO   83  69  85  69 /  60  50  50  20
MIO   82  69  83  68 /  40  40  50  30
F10   84  69  86  68 /  50  40  50  20
HHW   87  71  86  70 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for OKZ054-055-059-060-064>066.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24