322
FXUS64 KTSA 302324
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

 - Storm chances along with some threat for severe storms will
   persist across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
   through tonight.

 - Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm Sunday into the
   first part of next week. Afternoon heat index values may reach
   triple digits in a few spots.

 - Unsettled weather returns late next week into next weekend with
   daily shower and storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
parts of northwest Arkansas later this afternoon into early
evening, and these storms will pose a limited severe weather
threat. These storms are expected to dissipate this evening with
the loss of heating. Additional storms are expected to form
across parts of Kansas into north central and possibly central
Oklahoma by late afternoon. These storms may move into northeast
Oklahoma this evening and will also pose a limited severe weather
threat. These storms will likely decrease in intensity by late
evening, but a few showers and storms may linger into the
overnight hours across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

An upper ridge will build over the southern plains Sunday into
early next week, bringing hot and humid conditions. Afternoon heat
index values may reach or exceed 100 degrees in a few spots
Sunday and Monday. Mainly dry weather is expected during this time
frame with the upper ridge in place.

A backdoor cool front will move across the area Tuesday, with a
drier and slightly cooler airmass moving into the area for the
middle part of the week. Shower and storm chances will remain
limited as the upper ridge maintains its hold over the area.

Late this week into next weekend, the upper ridge breaks down and
an upper level storm system begins to approach from the west. This
will increase shower and storm chances Friday and Saturday and
also return a more humid airmass to the area. Temperatures will
remain near the seasonal averages from Wednesday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Outflow boundary sagging just south of the KS border into nern OK
will continue a threat of TSRA at BVO into this evening, warranting a
PROB30 group for a few hours. TSRA continues to develop across swrn
MO and nwrn AR this evening, with that threat continuing until around
06z. Outside of TSRA, VFR conditions are expected at all sites
through this forecast period. Southerly wind will be somewhat gusty
again on Sunday with a fairly strong pressure gradient across the
region. TSRA chances are nonzero nern OK and nwrn AR sites late in
the forecast period, but too low to mention at this time with mid
level heights/temps increasing over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  73  93 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  92  72  94 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   74  93  74  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   69  92  70  93 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   69  89  70  91 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  50  20  10  10
MKO   72  92  72  93 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   70  90  71  91 /  40  10  10   0
F10   71  93  72  94 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   73  92  73  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69