016
FXUS64 KTSA 020002
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
702 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Periods of a heavy rain may occur through tonight and into
   Friday morning, especially across southeast Oklahoma and
   western Arkansas. The heavy rain potential tapers off during
   the daytime Friday.

 - A cold frontal passage late tonight into Friday will cause
   temperatures to become more fall-like through the upcoming
   weekend.

 - Pleasant weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light to moderate rain, with pockets of heavy rain, continues to
slowly shift eastward across the forecast area late this morning.
So far, the heaviest rainfall in our area has fallen across east-
central OK and into southeast OK where both KINX and KTLX show
rainfall estimates between 1 and 3 inches, locally higher amounts,
have fallen since late last night. Rainfall rates have dropped
considerably since early this morning and have generally been less
than an inch per hour over the last few hours. This should help
the overall flooding concerns, as long as rates remain around an
inch or less. CAMs do show a slight uptick in rainfall rates this
afternoon as this wave of showers and occasional storms continues
to shift into western AR. Daytime heating will try to cause some
destabilization this afternoon, though there is skepticism on just
how much destabilization occurs with limited heating occurring
today. For this very same reason, severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely today, though cannot completely rule out some strong
non-severe gusty winds underneath stronger storm cells/line
segments this afternoon.

Behind the rain shield, conditions should stay mostly dry through
this afternoon. Some additional isolated/spotty convection is
expected to re-form near the OK/KS border, closer to the center of
the mid-level trough, by mid to late afternoon. Locations north
I-44 and west of US-75 will have the best opportunities for this
potential convective activity late this afternoon and into this
evening. CAMs show yet another flare up of convection developing
after sunset this evening, mostly impacting the southeast half of
the forecast area through the overnight hours and into Friday
morning. Some nuisance flooding can be expected, but flash
flooding appears unlikely at this time, though chances will
remain non-zero through the overnight period tonight, especially
for southeast OK. Additional rainfall amounts around 1 to 2
inches are expected across southeast OK and western AR from this
afternoon through daybreak Friday. The severe potential is
expected to stay low.

Lastly, a modest, fall-like cold front will push into the
forecast area beginning mid to late evening tonight and will
steadily push south through the night. Latest model guidance has
the frontal boundary reaching the I-40 corridor around or just
after sunrise Friday morning. Breezy northerly winds will develop
behind the front, with occasional gusts 30 to 35 mph initially,
following the front. The cooler air may lag a couple of hours
behind the front and likely will not filter into the area until
around midnight or so. Otherwise, expect overnight lows tonight
ranging from the mid to upper 60s, with lower 60s and upper 50s
behind the front.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A cold front will be working its way south through the forecast
area at the start of the long-term. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be on ongoing, with the heaviest rain axis from
southeast OK through far northwest AR. This general area will
remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon,
near and ahead of the southward advancing cold front that is
forecast to slide south of Red River by late Friday afternoon or
early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to be the
biggest threat through the daytime Friday, especially across
southeast OK and western AR. Another half an inch to an inch of
rain will be possible from Friday morning through Friday evening
for this area.

The mid-level trough shifts east of the area late Friday night,
but its axis will linger and hover over the area Saturday and
into Sunday morning. As overrunning occurs near the surface and
the trough axis remaining present overhead, this will maintain
low to medium rain chances (20-60%), mostly across southeast OK
and west-central AR. Rainfall amounts are forecast to stay light
Saturday into Sunday, generally up to quarter to half an inch
possible. Rain chances completely end for all areas on or by
Sunday morning and will remain dry through the rest of the long-
term period.

Ensembles and global deterministic models are in very good
agreement that broad continental surface high pressure builds
into the Plains beginning on Sunday. As this occurs, mid-level
ridging will build in over the Great Basin/Rockies region. This
will ensure a dry and pleasant regime between Sunday and
Wednesday.

Temperatures over the weekend will feature crisp fall mornings
with lows in the lower to middle 50s (perhaps dipping into the
upper 40s in spots) and afternoon high temperatures in the low to
middle 70s (with some lower 80s creeping into southeast OK on
Sunday). Temperatures will steadily trend warmer through the
into next week, underneath mostly sunny skies during the daytime.
Southerly winds are expected to return Monday night into Tuesday
and temperatures will eventually trend back up into the low to
middle 80s for highs by Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Some increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected overnight
near and east of current swath of rain from southeast Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will accompany a cold front tonight as it moves southeast from
Kansas. This activity may diminish with time. There is some
potential for few storms to form in eastern Oklahoma between
these two area, but confidence is not high. MVFR to VFR ceilings
will continue tonight, with areas IFR conditions behind the
front tonight and tomorrow. Gusty north to northwest winds
will arrive with the front late tonight and Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  67  59  74 /  60  30  20  10
FSM   69  78  64  77 /  90  80  30  30
MLC   65  74  62  78 /  80  60  30  50
BVO   60  67  53  73 /  60  10  10   0
FYV   63  72  57  76 /  80  70  20  10
BYV   66  70  58  73 /  90  80  20  10
MKO   64  71  61  75 /  70  40  30  20
MIO   61  67  56  74 /  60  20  10  10
F10   62  71  59  75 /  60  30  40  30
HHW   67  77  66  77 /  90  80  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...08