Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
790 FXUS64 KTSA 180211 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 811 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 744 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Low shower and storm chances Monday evening and Monday night. Isolated severe potential far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. - Well above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. - Unsettled pattern begins Wednesday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday night. - A few strong to severe storms possible Wednesday with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall and associated flooding potential Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 744 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper low over western NE with a shortwave trough extending southward through central KS. A surface low was found over northeast KS with a dryline extending southward roughly along the I-35 corridor into central OK then south-southwest west of DFW into the TX Hill Country. The warm front earlier across northeast OK into northwest AR had moved a bit further east into the terrain of AR and MO. Area VAD profiler showed a 35-45kt low level jet across the region. Isolated to widely scattered convection is expected to develop around midnight within an axis of increasing elevated instability as lift from the KS shortwave and associated jet streak approaches northeast OK into southwest MO and northwest AR. Blended PoPs were adjusted upward slightly closer to 50%, largely as a result of the 18Z and 21Z CAMs input. Strong deep layer shear will support marginally severe hail with any updrafts that are able to take advantage of the elevated instability. The activity is expected to move east of the area by 12Z as a weak frontal boundary begins to enter northeast OK. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Precip tonight should taper off/exit early Tuesday morning with the exiting low level jet ahead of a shortwave progged to move through the Central Plains tonight and Tuesday. A trailing weak frontal boundary drops southeast into the CWA during the day Tuesday and looks to stall near the Red River Tuesday night. Behind this boundary, northerly winds transport a drier airmass into the region which could develop areas of limited fire weather danger Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures cool slightly Tuesday behind the boundary, while lower 80s develop ahead of it over the southern half of the CWA. Attention then turns to the much advertised low pressure system for the second half of the week. This wave begins to track into the Desert Southwest Tuesday night/Wednesday which pushes a weak upper level ridge over the CWA. The CWA looks to get on the back side of the ridge Wednesday afternoon with the return of southerly flow lifting the front from Tuesday back north of the CWA. In response, this begins the deeper moisture advection into the region ahead of the low pressure system progged to move out into the Southern/Central Plains Thursday night and Friday. A lead impulse/vort max lifting within the southwesterly flow moves through the CWA Wednesday afternoon/night. Shower and storm chances develop with this impulse Wednesday afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and then spreads over the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Instability also increases again over the region with the vort max, which creates an isolated strong to severe potential. Instability is forecast to weaken Thursday while model soundings indicate a more nearly saturated column ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Thus, a heavy rain threat develops Wednesday night and continues through Thursday night as precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches spread over the region. There remains some differences among latest data for the location of the heavy rain axis, though the greater potential for heavy rainfall that could lead to an increase in flooding concerns is mainly Thursday through Thursday night. With the low pressure system moving into the Plains Friday, the widespread showers should begin to exit to the east/northeast as a dry slot tries to wrap around the base of the low into the CWA. An associated cold front to the low is forecast to push through the CWA Friday afternoon and evening, with any lingering showers exiting with front Friday evening. Temperatures more closer to the seasonal average return for the weekend while a weak mid/upper level ridge passes through the Plains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Low VFR clouds have mixed east of the northwest AR terminals for the time being but confidence is moderate to high that they will return later this evening as the low level jet strengthens and the warm front lifts north through the region. There is a low chance of showers between 04Z-06Z but confidence and coverage is too low to mention. Ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR toward daybreak as higher lower level moisture advects north with time. Winds will veer overnight to more southwesterly direction as frontal boundary approaches and becomes gusty again for AR terminals through Tuesday morning. LLWS wind shear will be a factor overnight for the AR terminals before weakening by 12Z. A wind shift is forecast across northeast OK sites after 15Z with speeds near 10 kt continuing through the day. The front will make slower progress south and east with a later wind shift for remaining sites late in the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 77 50 74 / 10 0 0 20 FSM 63 83 54 79 / 30 0 0 20 MLC 67 85 54 80 / 10 0 0 30 BVO 52 75 44 71 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 63 78 48 75 / 50 0 0 10 BYV 61 78 49 73 / 50 0 0 10 MKO 64 80 51 78 / 20 0 0 20 MIO 60 75 47 72 / 30 0 0 10 F10 62 80 51 78 / 10 0 0 20 HHW 68 85 62 81 / 20 0 0 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...24