920
FXUS64 KTSA 031811 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected this week.

 - Breezy conditions develop Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, but should
   remain below advisory criteria.

 - A weak cold front will drop temperatures slightly for Friday. A
   stronger front on Saturday will drop temperatures below
   seasonal average late this upcoming weekend into early next
   week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Southerly winds remain somewhat elevated across much of the
forecast area ahead of a weak surface frontal boundary that is
currently draped from southeast KS to northwest OK. This boundary
may briefly push into portions of far northeast OK later this
afternoon, but wont have any impacts with it before lifting back
northward later this evening. Pleasant conditions will persist
through tonight, with light to moderate southerly winds prevailing
and a few high clouds streaming in. Overnight lows will be mild
for early November and will range from the mid-40s across far
southeast OK and west-central AR to upper-40s and lower-50s
elsewhere.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Winds will begin to increase before sunrise tomorrow, becoming
breezy/gusty by midday. Gusts between 25-35 mph will be common,
highest gusts expected across northeast OK and far northwest AR,
as a surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a
developing lee cyclone. Limited fire weather concerns will occur
through the daytime as dry air aloft mixes to the surface in
combination to the breezy conditions. Also, in response to the
drier air, temperatures are anticipated to warm into the mid-upper
70s in the afternoon for many locations, with the exception of
far northwest AR and higher terrain areas. On Wednesday, another
weak and non-impactful frontal boundary will push into northeast
OK and will turn winds out of the northeast briefly before it
lifts northward Wednesday night, bringing back south/southeast
winds. Southerly winds on Thursday will crank up and become breezy
again as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next
upper-level wave. This next wave will move off the Rockies and
over the Plains late Thursday night into Friday morning and will
help drag a surface cold front through the area on Friday
morning. Limited moisture will be available and it appears, at
this time, that much of the forcing for showers and thunderstorms
will remain northeast and east of the forecast area. Thus, no
precipitation is expected. Temperatures will drop, but will
remain unseasonably mild behind the front on Friday until another,
stronger, dry cold front pushes through the forecast area on
Saturday afternoon/evening. Temperatures will then drop below
average for Sunday and Monday. Rainfall with and behind this front
also looks unlikely at this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period for
all sites. Skies remain clear today before FEW to SCT high clouds
overspread the region. Southerly winds this morning have been gusty
south of a frontal boundary positioned just north of the I-44
corridor. Winds decrease this evening but remain light out of the
south overnight as LLWS develops over much of NE OK and NW AR. Sfc
winds intensify late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, gusting
out of the south to 20-25 kts areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  79  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  77  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   49  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  78  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  71  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  71  54  73 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  77  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  74  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  78  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  76  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43