283
FXUS64 KTSA 010558
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances and well below
   normal temperatures forecast for the Labor Day holiday.

 - Those with outdoor plans for the holiday should consider
   sheltering options and remain weather aware, with lightning
   and low potential for locally heavy rain in the forecast.

 - Stronger cold front by late week will drop temperatures even
   further through next weekend, maintaining well below normal
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Upper level disturbances moving southeast in the northwest flow
aloft will continue to generate scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms today. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
in a few spots much as what occurred Sunday. Temperatures will
remain well below normal, with afternoon highs ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A stronger upper level disturbance will pass just to our
northeast Monday night allowing a weak cold front to drop south
across our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible, with the brunt of the precipitation shifting east into
far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day
Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will remain well below the seasonal
averages.

Wednesday looks to remain dry, with temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 80s. Another cold front will move into the area
Wednesday evening and overnight bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight, and cooler
temperatures to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
Thursday. The frontal boundary will be washing out by late
Thursday across southern parts of the area, so temperatures there
will be similar to those seen Wednesday.

A stronger cold front now appears likely to move across the area
Friday, with well below normal temperatures then expected through
next weekend. Precipitation chances during this period remain
uncertain and will be tied to the eventual southward push of the
Friday cold front. Stayed with the NBM solution for now with the
main shower and storm chances across the southern part of the
forecast area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Isolated to scattered rain showers are forecast to continue into
the overnight hours across much of the CWA, with additional
chances remaining into the morning hours Monday. Late morning Monday,
there could be a lull in isolated/scattered showers before
additional showers drop south out of Kansas Monday
afternoon/early evening. Will carry Prob30 groups for timing of
greater potential of showers Monday morning and again Monday
afternoon. Storm potentials develop Monday afternoon and have
added a mention of thunder to KBVO for now. Cloud cover through
the period should remain scattered to overcast mid and high clouds
with the potential for a period of MVFR conditions within the
stronger showers and any storm development. Winds through the
period continue to be variable to an east/southeast direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  80  62  85 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   66  84  65  88 /  40  30   0   0
MLC   65  82  62  85 /  20  30   0   0
BVO   60  79  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   60  81  58  85 /  40  30  10   0
BYV   61  80  59  84 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   64  80  61  83 /  30  20   0   0
MIO   61  79  57  84 /  40  20   0   0
F10   63  80  59  84 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   66  82  63  84 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20