632
FXUS64 KTSA 280458 AAE
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

 - Widespread dangerous heat continue through Tuesday, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-115 F. Dangerous heat persists
   for portions of the area through Friday.

 - A minor cool down and a chance of showers and storms is
   expected mid to late week. A more substantial cool down may
   then occur over the weekend behind a weak cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Mid/upper level ridge will remain in control over the region in
the short-term period. As a result, itll be another wash, rinse,
and repeat forecast for Tuesday, with dangerous, oppressive heat
impacting the area during the afternoon and early evening hours.
No changes were made to the current Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat
Warning, which will go into effect from noon until 8 PM Tuesday. A
few counties (particularly Delaware and Pittsburg counties in OK
and Benton and Carroll counties in AR) in the Advisory may need to
upgraded to a Warning if temperatures and/or dewpoint
temperatures trend higher than forecast.

Model guidance continues to show a subtle mid-level shortwave
trough digging southeast along the eastern periphery of the ridge
late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Despite the shortwave grazing
northeast portions of the forecast area, much of the precipitation
is anticipated to remain north and east of the area, closer to
the center of the shortwave. However, most recent runs of CAMs
suggest a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms developing near
an approaching weak backdoor cold front and on the southern
fringe of the shortwave as early as late Tuesday afternoon, with a
slight uptick in coverage and intensity late Tuesday night and
through daybreak Wednesday morning. Went ahead and added some low
PoPs to capture this possible scenario, with low confidence on
coverage and exact timing. The weak front is expected to move into
portions of northeast OK and far northwest AR, where it is
expected to severely slow down or stall into Wednesday.

Most locations are forecast to remain dry Tuesday evening and
night. Thus, another unseasonably warm night is expected with
perhaps slightly more cloud cover, especially the eastern half of
the CWA, than previous nights. Overnight lows Tuesday night will
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper-level ridge that is currently plaguing the region is
anticipated to briefly weaken and shift westward Tuesday into
Wednesday, before restrengthening over the Desert Southwest during
the daytime on Thursday. As it shifts west, eastern OK and
northwest AR will be caught in a northwest flow aloft. This will
do two things...allow for potential mesoscale features and
boundaries to move into or through the area, and decrease the
potent subsidence currently occurring. As a result of both of
these, temperatures will gradually cool off slightly, closer
seasonal average from mid to late week.

Models and ensembles show a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the Midwest Region between Wednesday and Friday,
introducing isolated to widely scattered (20-60%) showers and
thunderstorms each day, mainly for the northeastern half of the
forecast area. At the surface, the stalled frontal boundary from
Tuesday night will lift north as a warm front on Thursday as an
area of low pressure develops across the High Plains and lifts
northeast across the Great Plains Thursday evening and night. As
it lifts further north and east, it will drag a weak cold front
through the entire forecast area sometime Friday
afternoon/evening, with exact timing still uncertain. Though not a
ton of precipitation is expected with the front, temperatures
will cool down closer to or even slightly below seasonal averages
(highs in the low-mid 90s) Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions should prevail during the period. A boundary will
approach and eventually move through parts of NE OK and also NW AR
late this afternoon into the evening, with southerly winds becoming
more east to northeast, albeit still at lighter speeds, as this
occurs. Evening shower and thunderstorm development is expected
primarily in NW AR, but the bulk of the activity should be east of
the TAF sites until after 29/06Z. The chance of on-station impacts
is low enough with this set to preclude mention, but if trends
continue, will likely be included in the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 102  82 100 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   79 102  80  98 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   79 101  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78 101  79  98 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   77  98  78  93 /   0  10  30  50
BYV   77  99  76  90 /   0  20  30  60
MKO   77 100  78  99 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   78  99  78  94 /   0  10  30  50
F10   77 102  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   76 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-063-
     068-069-073-075-172-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-
     219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22