701
FXUS64 KTSA 050952
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Unsettled pattern will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm
   chances through Monday. Heavy rain and localized
   flooding are the main concerns.

 - Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but an occasional
   strong and/or marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out,
   especially Saturday through Monday.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   possible by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Friday will be quite similar weather wise to Thursday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms once again developing from
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, especially during the
afternoon. High temperatures will once again warm into the 80s
across the entire forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An upper low over Baja will lift northeast across west Texas and
into Kansas Saturday and Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will expand across the entire forecast area during the day
Saturday, with coverage and intensity likely increasing Saturday
night and Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat,
but a few strong to severe storms will also be possible,
especially Sunday. Shower and storm chances will persist into
Monday as well, mainly across the eastern part of the forecast
area.

Once this system clears out next week, an upper ridge will build
over the area and the heat and humidity will ramp up. Afternoon
heat index values may reach or exceed 105 degrees in some places,
and heat headlines may be required next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Low clouds are overspreading the region this morning, yielding
MVFR conditions for the most part. Later today, scattered showers
and a few storms will develop from southeast Oklahoma up into
northwest Arkansas. Kept prob30 mention and just tweaked timing.
After VFR conditions return this afternoon and evening, low clouds
are yet again expected to lift north into the region by Saturday
morning and yield MVFR conditions.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  72  82  70 /  10  10  50  90
FSM   86  71  85  71 /  40  20  60  80
MLC   85  72  83  71 /  30  30  60  90
BVO   87  70  83  67 /   0  10  40  90
FYV   83  68  82  68 /  30  10  50  70
BYV   83  68  81  68 /  30  10  40  60
MKO   85  70  82  69 /  20  20  60  90
MIO   86  70  83  69 /  10  10  40  70
F10   85  70  82  69 /  20  20  60  90
HHW   83  71  82  71 /  60  30  70  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30