553
FXUS64 KTSA 241919
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the
vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system.
This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently
over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential
that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across
portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and
west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main
concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move
out of the area late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff
upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and
storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated
with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the
area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across
western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level
low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend
with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to
be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid level cloud cover will increase this afternoon and evening as
a disturbance moves into the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will also become greater later this afternoon and evening,
especially from Interstate 44 southward. Best chance for thunder
impacts will be to KMLC and KFSM this evening, with lighter
scattered showers possible for other terminals. Ceilings will also
lower, but are expected to stay mostly VFR, though some MVFR cigs
could accompany thunderstorms this evening. Some fog could
also develop again tomorrow morning for SE OK and W AR terminals,
though have left out of mention for now given uncertainties in
rain and cloud cover evolution overnight.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  54  80 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   61  82  59  82 /  70   0   0  10
MLC   59  81  56  81 /  90   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  51  82 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   54  79  51  78 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   54  78  51  77 /  30   0   0  20
MKO   57  79  55  79 /  70   0   0  10
MIO   54  79  50  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   57  80  53  79 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   62  81  56  82 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04