607
FXUS64 KTSA 011125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Reduced visibilities in patchy to areas of fog and/or
   occasional light rain showers areawide through mid morning
   Sunday.

 - High shower and thunderstorm chances Monday into Tuesday, with
   potential for severe weather and locally heavy rain.

 - Temperatures closer to seasonal average mid to late week behind
   early week system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Spotty light showers have redeveloped across parts of northeast
and east central Oklahoma in response to a subtle disturbance
moving through the area in the northwesterly flow aloft behind the
main upper low along the Missouri/Arkansas border late this
evening. These showers should not amount to much rainfall wise and
are expected to shift to the east with time toward daybreak Sunday
morning. In addition to these showers, light fog is ongoing across
much of eastern Oklahoma, with most of the short term guidance
showing visibilities reducing further early Sunday morning. Given
the continued low cloudiness, do not expect widespread dense fog
despite some of the more pessimistic guidance showing some
potential. HREF probabilities of visibilities under a quarter mile
are on the lower side, generally less than 20 percent in much of
the area. Will keep a mention of patchy to areas of fog in the
forecast through mid morning Sunday, with improved conditions
thereafter. Above normal afternoon temperatures remain expected on
Sunday, but with at least some cloudiness likely to stick around,
not convinced that temperatures will get as warm as advertised by
the NBM. The high temperature initialization has been nudged down
a couple of degrees using the short-term blend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The big story for this forecast occurs in the Monday to Tuesday
time frame with a potent storm system and attendant cold front set
to approach and move through the region, bringing severe weather
and heavy rain potential. A strong low level jet ahead of the
system will begin to nudge into portions of eastern Oklahoma
around daybreak Monday, with the overnight convection associated
with it expected to remain west of the area until the daylight
hours. These showers and storms should move into areas west of
Highway 75 during the morning hours, with a general decreasing
trend toward midday. Wind speeds and gusts will increase during
the morning and into the afternoon hours, with southerly gusts
around 40 mph likely to occur. HREF probabilities of 40 mph gusts
are fairly high in parts of northeast Oklahoma by late morning
Monday. A Wind Advisory may be necessary for parts of the area
during the day Monday. There remains some uncertainty on how early
Monday afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop/move into
eastern Oklahoma in association with the main system and cold
front. In general, the continued thought is that the NBM POPs are
too high, too early in the day, with late afternoon into early
evening the more favored for arrival into the area and lingering
across the eastern fringes of the area past daybreak Tuesday
morning. The environment ahead of the front Monday afternoon into
Monday night continues to be most supportive of wind threats
severe weather-wise, including tornadoes, with the overall
instability low enough to decrease the overall large hail threat.
Precipitable water values forecast to be near seasonal maxes will
support a locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding threat,
as well.

The front will move eastward through the region by late Tuesday
afternoon, with much cooler and drier air moving in for the middle
of the week. Another fast-moving disturbance looks to move
through the region Thursday that may bring additional light rain
showers to the area. Uncertainty remains high overall headed into
next weekend, although models continue to hint at another system
that may impact the region for the next weekend or possibly into
the early part of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds and fog will improve to
MVFR at all sites by late morning and then to VFR this afternoon.
Conditions will then remain VFR for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  78  59 /   0   0  60  80
FSM   76  61  80  65 /   0   0  10  90
MLC   76  62  81  61 /   0   0  30  80
BVO   72  59  76  54 /  10  10  70  80
FYV   73  57  75  57 /  10   0  10  90
BYV   71  61  74  64 /  10  10  10  80
MKO   74  61  80  60 /   0   0  30  90
MIO   72  60  77  60 /  10  10  30  90
F10   75  62  80  58 /  10   0  40  80
HHW   78  62  82  63 /   0  10  10  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05