512
FXUS64 KTSA 311735
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

 - Low to medium daily shower and thunderstorm chances and well below
   normal temperatures forecast through the Labor Day weekend.

 - Those with outdoor plans for the holiday should consider sheltering
   options and remain weather aware, with lightning and low
   potential for locally heavy rain in the forecast.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late week will drop temperatures
   even further, maintaining well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Showers are ongoing at midday mainly across portions of northeast
Oklahoma along and northwest of I-44, within the mid level moisture
axis and nearest the upper level disturbance near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border evident on water vapor satellite. Additional
development has occurred late this morning farther southwest along
the mid level trough axis in central Oklahoma. Lightning is not
currently being observed with this activity, but the potential for
such should increase during the afternoon as instability increases.
Potential for shower and thunderstorm development farther east into
eastern Oklahoma and eventually, western Arkansas will increase
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening as the upper
level support shifts eastward. Locally heavy rain will remain the
primary threat with thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight given
the moisture content and slow storm motions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Northwest flow aloft will persist across the region through at least
the upcoming work week, leading to continued periods of showers and
thunderstorms and largely below normal temperatures. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorm potential will continue into
Labor Day, with the primary axis shifting eastward with the moisture
axis. A cold front remains on track to move through the region from
late Monday into Tuesday as a strong upper level disturbance drops
southeastward through the Central Plains. The potential for showers
and thunderstorms will focus along the front, which should be slow
to clear southern and eastern portions of the forecast area, into
Tuesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday behind
the front. The post-frontal surface ridge will push south and east
of the area by Wednesday, allowing a return of southerly winds and
temperatures several degrees warmer in most spots than those on
Tuesday.

Attention then turns to the potential for a strong cold front
Wednesday night and into Thursday. Data remain generally consistent
in the idea of an upper low moving into the western Great Lakes
region, allowing colder air to move southward into the Central
United States. Given the location of the upper low, this air is most
likely to move into northern and eastern parts of the forecast area,
with a more southern intrusion more uncertain. EFI values for high
temperatures on Thursday are more in the -0.6 to -0.7 range into
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, inspiring less confidence
in a noticeable cooldown than at this same time yesterday. The NBM
initialization for high temperatures on Thursday is very reasonable
for now, depicting mid and upper 70s north of I-40. Much like
yesterday, winds and wind gusts have been adjusted slightly upward
Wednesday night into Thursday with this front, using the NBM 75th
percentile for speeds and a blend of the 90th percentile with the
initialization for gusts. Low shower and thunderstorm chances
accompany the initial front, as well, mainly Wednesday night.

Uncertainty in the day-to-day details increases markedly after
Thursday, with several data sources still depicting a second push of
colder air in the Central United States late in the week into the
weekend before the Great Lakes low lifts too far to the northeast.
Moderate confidence exists that after a slight warm up on Friday,
another modest cooldown should occur, although the timing and
southward progression of such remains in less confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Weak upper-level disturbance continues to trigger showers, with
occasional lightning possible, across eastern OK and northwest AR
early this afternoon. Precipitation coverage should increase and
spread eastward through the day. Kept the mention of thunder out
of the TAFs for now, though there is a low chance (20% or less) an
occasional storm may roll over or enter any terminal space this
afternoon and into this evening. Low-medium precip chances will
persist through much of the period, with low confidence on when
exactly rainfall will impact any particular terminal. Continued
to carry PROB30 groups in most TAFs. VFR is anticipated to prevail
at all sites through the period, but any moderate to heavy shower/storm
will likely reduce visibilities and may lower cigs to MVFR/IFR
briefly. Winds will remain light and mostly variable through the
forecast period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  83  65  78 /  40  30  30  10
FSM   69  83  66  83 /  20  30  40  40
MLC   67  83  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
BVO   63  81  60  78 /  50  40  40  10
FYV   63  80  61  79 /  30  40  40  40
BYV   64  79  61  78 /  30  40  40  40
MKO   67  82  64  79 /  40  30  30  20
MIO   65  79  61  78 /  40  50  40  20
F10   66  83  64  79 /  40  30  30  10
HHW   68  83  66  83 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67