822
FXUS64 KTSA 131735
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

 - Very hot to dangerously hot conditions will continues into the weekend.

 - A slight pattern shift Sunday or Monday could take the edge of the
   heat in some areas late in the weekend or early next week.

 - If the small pattern shift happens, a few thunderstorms could occur
   in the area. But confidence remains low for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Temperatures so far today have been running generally 0 to 3 degrees higher than
compared to yesterday. Dew points have been +/- 2 degrees different from yesterday.
There has been zone in northeast Oklahoma near I-44 where both the temp and dew point
have trended up in the last 24 hours. We issued an Extreme Heat Warning in much of northeast
Oklahoma. We also issued a small Extreme Heat Warning in the river valley of Franklin County
where apparent temperature calculations for later today reached 110 to 115F for several hours.
At late morning, Franklin County Emergency Management reported a heat index of 104F in Ozark.
Elsewhere, most places outside the highest terrain will see heat index values in the
105 to 110F range. Very warm nighttime conditions are offering little relief, especially for
those with limited access to air conditioning. These are life-threatening conditions for some.
Outside the Excessive Heat Warning, a Heat Advisory is in place into this evening, with that
advisory in effect area wide tonight after the warning expires.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

No change is expected to the overall pattern through Saturday. A couple of very small
showers could occur in the heat of each day near terrain, but the potential is below
adding to the forecast. The large upper-level high pressure system now over the southern
U.S. will evolve westward toward the weekend and tend to flatten some. This will allow
one or more weak disturbances aloft to brush the area on Sunday and/or Monday, which
could encourage a weak front or merged storm outflow boundaries into the area. If that
happens, the edge will come off the heat for some of us for a day or two and there
would be a bump in thunderstorm chances. But right now there is not a good signal in the
data for a real pattern shift. So a sustained general cool down is not expected through this
forecast period. A Heat Advisory is in effect for tomorrow through Sunday. If dew points
do not drop a little in the next couple of days as expected, we will be near Heat Warning
criteria again in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty south winds
this afternoon will relax this evening and overnight as speeds drop
below 10kt with the exception of KTUL which will remains a bit
higher. Winds will pick up again mid-morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84 104  82 103 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   80 104  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   80 102  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   79 104  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   78 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   79 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   78 102  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   80 102  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-065-068-069-
     071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     OKZ055>064-066-067-070-154-254-354.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-
     066-067-070-154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ220.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     ARZ220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...24