309
FXUS64 KTSA 220526
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

 - Hot to very hot conditions will continue for the next week,
   with the only exceptions being around active thunderstorm
   activity.

 - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday,
   bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds,
   but most areas will see only minimal rainfall.

 - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

An upper level shortwave will pass through the area late tonight
into mid morning, bringing another round of elevated showers and
storms. These storms may result in locally heavy rainfall, but
most areas will only see minimal precipitation. In fact, the
storms that will impact the area later are already present in
Nebraska. CAMs match the radar presentation reasonably well, but
are too dry across central Kansas where additional storms have
formed. This may matter because the 00z CAMs confine the majority
of the storm activity to central Oklahoma. If storms get going
further to the east that would be very relevant for the eventual
outcome. Suffice it to say, uncertainty is fairly high for exactly
where storms move in Saturday morning. Either way, the dry lower
boundary layer will favor gusty winds, with a marginal (5 percent)
chance for severe winds near stronger storms.

Temperatures will be tricky Saturday considering the timing of the
storms. Areas away from convective activity will again be in the
upper 90s to near 100 F, but rain cooled areas may see a cooler day
in the lower 90s. Will let the day shift decide on any heat
products based on how storm activity evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary to the west of
the area for the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly in
the mid 90s in the north, but warmer in the south near 100 F.
Behind some storm activity Monday morning (see below), model
guidance rapidly increases temperatures as downslope southwest
flow develops. Monday or Tuesday may be the warmest days this
week, with some slight cooling mid week in response to a grazing
distant trough in the Midwest. Even so, it`ll stay plenty hot,
with mid 90s to low 100s to close out the week.

The displaced center of high pressure will keep somewhat enhanced
mid level flow and periodic shortwaves moving through for the next
few days. The current favored timing for the next such shortwave
will be later Sunday into Monday morning. Model guidance remains
on the weaker side, but there could be a narrow corridor of
decent rainfall wherever storms set up. The dry boundary layer
will continue to support strong gusty winds as well. The same
general pattern will remain in place through next week, but as the
ridge gradually flexes into the area shower activity will
gradually become more isolated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Convective evolution is highly uncertain, but convective impacts
will be possible at all sites at some point. As of now, the best
convective chances look to be from late Saturday morning through
the afternoon, but confidence in this timing is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  74  97  77 /  40  10  10  20
FSM  101  74  99  75 /  30  20  20  20
MLC  101  73 103  79 /  30  20  10   0
BVO   96  69  95  71 /  40  10  20  20
FYV   96  68  94  71 /  50  20  20  40
BYV   94  69  92  70 /  50  20  20  60
MKO   97  71  97  74 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   95  70  93  71 /  50  10  20  50
F10   98  72  99  75 /  30  10  10   0
HHW  101  74 102  77 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05