826
FXUS64 KTSA 171925
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
225 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

  - Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected overnight and
    early Wednesday.

  - Dry and summer-like conditions are expected late in the week
    and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The remainder of the afternoon will be uneventful weather-wise over
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas... prior to notable severe
weather and heavy rainfall/flood risks in the subsequent hours.

All substantive convection has exited the area - particularly east of a MCV
over northwestern Arkansas - providing a momentary lull in storm impacts.
Cirrus/high clouds from convective debris continue to stream over the area
providing filtered insolation and moderating temperatures over much of
northeastern Oklahoma/northwestern Arkansas which remain in the upper 70s to
lower 80s at this time.

Current interests revolve around the evolution of an outflow boundary
which is now situated from near Stillwater to McAlester. Additionally a
broken line of strong storms is ongoing along an approaching front over
Kansas. There is a low probability this activity may approach Ottawa
and/or Craig Counties later this afternoon. Otherwise, both of these
features will be important to potential outcomes overnight/early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

One or more organized convective complexes will approach the forecast/warning
area by 02-05z (9 pm to midnight). Given strong instability and sufficient
wind shear, these storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards
through the overnight hours...with the potential of locally damaging winds
of particular concern. Also, short-range ensembles suggests 65 percent
probabilities of 2 inch or greater rainfall over northeastern Oklahoma by
early/mid Wednesday. Thus flood/flash flood risks are also present. High-
resolution ensembles present the greatest prospects for damaging winds
generally along and west of the I44 corridor roughly between 05-07z.

Lingering convection and associated hazards (perhaps transiting toward heavy
rain/flooding) will persist into the first half of Wednesday.

By Thursday, the ridge starts to build back in, reducing our rain
chances.

Temperatures begin to cool in northern Oklahoma on Wednesday to
the upper 80s as the frontal boundary moves through. By Thursday,
southerly flow will have returned allowing temperatures to climb
into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will dissipate across northwest Arkansas by 20Z.
Impacts should be minimal, but brief ceilings or lower visibility may develop under
any storms. VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and evening hours, but
a few isolated storms could develop for northwest AR terminals in the late afternoon.
Overnight a line of strong or severe storms will move through the area, beginning in
northeast Oklahoma. The main risk will be for very strong winds. For now included gusts
of 30-40 kts for most terminals, but winds could potentially exceed this. Very heavy
rain may cause visibilities to fall to 1-2 SM with ceilings of 1-2 kft. Scattered storms
will persist into Wednesday morning before beginning to diminish late morning.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  86  69  91 /  60  40  10   0
FSM   76  89  72  91 /  50  50  40  10
MLC   74  88  70  91 /  30  40  40  10
BVO   69  85  65  91 /  60  40   0   0
FYV   72  85  66  89 /  80  60  40  10
BYV   71  85  66  87 /  60  70  40   0
MKO   73  85  69  88 /  60  50  20  10
MIO   71  83  66  88 /  80  50  10   0
F10   73  86  68  89 /  40  60  20  10
HHW   74  89  71  89 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20