133
FXUS64 KTSA 301130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 PM CDT FRI May 29 2026

 - Storm chances along with some threat for severe storms will
   persist through Saturday.

 - Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm Sunday into the
   first part of next week. Afternoon heat index values may reach
   triple digits in a few spots.

 - Unsettled weather returns later next week with daily shower and
   storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper flow over the region has flipped back to the more
traditional W to SW flow and increased some, as an upper trough
ejects northeast toward the central Rockies and a subtropical jet
ahead of it extends into the south-central CONUS. It was an active
day over north-central OK, with numerous storms developing off the
dryline and producing big wind gusts and some hail. This activity
has largely stayed out of NE OK thus far, though there is still some
chance lingering waa activity slides across far NE OK close to the
KS border through the night. There has been inconsistent signals
presented in CAM data going into tomorrow morning. Some runs have
suggested MCS development north of the KS border with activity
eventually bending southeast to clip parts of the forecast area
and leaving an outflow boundary. Later runs have backed off from
this scenario. PoPs in the near term will use the raw 1 hr NBM
PoP instead of PPI, backing away from likely PoPs in the
northeast. Focus will then shift back to the dryline out west.
Marginal westerly deep-layer shear in combination with late May
instability will support some risk for severe storms Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper trough is expected to lift northeast across the central
and northern Plains on Sunday. Rising mid-level heights across the
forecast area will reduce the chances of any storms developing to
our west and affecting our region. Afternoon highs will climb
into the low 90s, and combined with the high humidity in place will
yield heat indices near the triple digit mark in some spots. Upper
heights continue to rise into Monday as the central CONUS ridge
amplifies/broadens and another afternoon with highs in the low 90s
and heat indices near the triple digits is expected. After another
hot and humid day Tuesday with only low rain chances, temperatures
and humidity will dial back a bit by Wednesday and Thursday as an
expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some
cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and
northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the
forecast area in this scenario. The central CONUS ridge breaks down
during the latter part of the week, and rain/storm chances will ramp
up by next Friday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are anticipated over the
CWA today before becoming mainly high clouds overnight tonight.
There remains a short window of IFR/MVFR conditions within
northwest Arkansas early this morning, though with winds already
higher than this time yesterday this window looks to be limited.
Storm chances also remain through the TAF period over much of the
CWA. Will continue with Prob30 groups for timing of greater
potential for northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas TAF
sites. Within any convection, MVFR conditions and gusty winds are
capable. East to southerly winds this morning become breezy from
the south this afternoon, and then subside overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  72  92  73 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   93  72  93  72 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   92  75  93  74 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   90  69  92  71 /  30  40   0   0
FYV   88  71  89  72 /  30  20  10   0
BYV   85  68  87  68 /  50  30  20  10
MKO   90  72  91  72 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   89  70  91  71 /  40  40  10  10
F10   90  71  93  72 /  10  20   0   0
HHW   90  73  92  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20