880
FXUS64 KTSA 191721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Near record temperatures continue Saturday.

 - Fire weather concerns will be elevated Saturday across eastern
   Oklahoma.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night and increase
   Sunday through Sunday night as a slow moving cold front
   passes.

 - Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

One more hot afternoon is in store across the region as
temperatures climb into the upper 90s to near 100 again for most
locations. Lower humidity will continue, which will at least keep
heat indices below advisory criteria. Surface low pressure
continues to deepen over the High Plains of western Kansas, with
an associated cold front extending southwestward into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Region. The result of the tightening
gradient will be an increase in gusty southwesterly winds across
the area this afternoon. The winds combined with the lower
humidity, record temperatures, and ongoing drought conditions will
raise fire concerns for this afternoon. The strongest winds will
reside across northeast Oklahoma, though more receptive fuels are
likely across southeast Oklahoma where there has been less recent
rainfall.

Later into the afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the slowly advancing frontal boundary
across northern Oklahoma. These storms will slowly track east
northeastward toward portions of northeast Oklahoma overnight
tonight. Current indications are that this activity will weaken as
it gets removed from the boundary and will generally stall out
northwest of I-44 late tonight and dissipate in the pre dawn hours
Sunday. The initial cluster of storms could pose an isolated
severe risk across far northwestern portions of the forecast area,
with damaging winds the main threat.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly
along and north of I-44 through the mid morning hours Sunday as
the front slowly tracks into northeastern Oklahoma. Additional
thunderstorm development is likely along the actual frontal
boundary by late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Initial
development is expected across northeast Oklahoma, eventually
growing into one or more southeastward advancing clusters through
Sunday evening. Initial cells could be strong to severe, posing a
damaging wind and hail threat through the afternoon hours. As
clusters become more organized, a more widespread damaging wind
threat could develop into the evening, along with locally heavy
rainfall. Most of this activity should exit the forecast area
overnight Sunday. Scattered showers or storms could linger into
Monday morning within the elevated frontal zone/WAA regime that
will stall out over eastern Oklahoma.

A much more seasonal airmass will arrive in the wake of the front
and finally put an end to the prolonged period of extreme heat.
Generally near normal temperatures are expected through much of
next week, with low humidity and light winds through the period.
Temperatures could even trend somewhat below normal on Monday and
Tuesday as lingering cloud cover remains over the region through
much of the day. The forecast will remain mostly dry through the
rest of the period after Monday, as mid level ridging remains
in the vicinity and builds more over the Southern Plains by late
week. A few periods of showers may try to sneak into northeast
Oklahoma through the week, but otherwise a dry forecast will
prevail into the latter part of the week when another front could
approach the region.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals, aside from potential impact from showers and
thunderstorms over northeast OK after about 09z tonight. South
winds will gust around 20 knots in much of the area today in
advance of approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with the front to our northwest this evening
and move into northeast OK late tonight, likely in a weakening
state. As such, any storms into early Sunday morning may have
gusty wind potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  76  93  68 /   0  10  60  60
FSM  101  73 100  73 /   0   0   0  40
MLC  100  74 100  70 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   99  69  88  62 /   0  40  60  40
FYV   97  69  97  66 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   96  72  96  69 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   97  72  96  67 /   0   0  30  70
MIO   96  71  90  65 /   0  10  40  60
F10   98  73  96  66 /   0   0  50  70
HHW   98  72  98  71 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14