935
FXUS64 KTSA 222309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

 - Near average temperatures through the weekend for eastern Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas.

 - Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast Sunday night through
   much of next week with a locally heavy rainfall threat.

 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Forecast area remains in the eastern side of an upper level ridge
centered near the Four Corners region with broad sfc high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Southern
Plains. This pattern favors mostly dry conditions with near average
temps for late August. A slightly more unstable airmass does reside
over a portion of southeast OK, where an isolated shower may pop up
this afternoon over the terrain. At the moment the probability
looks less than 15%. Clear skies, light NE winds and near normal
overnight lows can be expected tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A strong upper trough moving across southern Canada will cause the
upper ridge to become oriented more east-west across the southern
state Saturday. There are signals that a subtle piece of trailing
energy will brush northern parts of the forecast area and result in
isolated convection near the OK/KS border, but most of the area
remains dry with temps again close to normal.

Expectation remains that the ridge will amplify and retrograde later
in the weekend with moderate NW flow developing through the plains.
An initial weak frontal boundary will move into the area Sunday, but
not much impact aside from a slight downturn in temps across roughly
the northern half of the forecast area. A stronger shortwave will
get caught up in the NW flow Sunday night into Monday, when the more
significant changes to the weather will be felt for many of us, as
it also results in a more substantial southward push of cooler air.
Thus we expect fairly widespread coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms to expand across primarily northeast OK Sunday night
and Monday, with chances trending southward into Tuesday. This is
expected to keep temperatures rather cool for this time of year for
about the northern half of the forecast area, mostly 70s for highs
with some areas possibly spending much of the afternoon in the
60s...a big change indeed.

The large-scale pattern will remain dominated by a western
ridge/eastern trough regime into at least mid-week, with indications
of another substantial wave in northwest flow by Wed night or
Thursday. This likely results in another uptick of rain and thunder
chances during that time frame. Given this scenario it is possible
some areas will see significant rainfall during the upcoming week,
with at least low to moderate (30-50%) probability of rainfall
exceeding 3 inches indicated. The most impacted locations tough to
determine at this stage, but the potential heavy rainfall and
flooding impacts will exist and forecast should be monitored
closely. The severe weather threat ion this pattern should remain
minimal overall, though an organized MCS could happen given the
relatively strong flow.

Temperatures will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and
extent/duration of rainfall. Any prolonged periods in the daytime
likely keeps temps in the 70s or even 60s, while more sun would push
them into the 80s. Regardless the threat of excessive heat will be
negated for several days at least.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with scattered mid
cloud around through the rest of the evening and again during the
day tomorrow. Winds will generally remain light out of the north
or variable at times. A frontal boundary will enter NE OK and NW
AR tomorrow afternoon, bringing gustier north winds and more cloud
cover. Some isolated storm chances will also exists along the
boundary, but chances remain too low to mention at this point.
Even less fog coverage is expected tonight, so have kept mention
out, though some isolated instances of fog will be possible early
tomorrow morning across NW AR sites.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   67  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   62  90  61  88 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   65  92  65  90 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   65  91  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   67  93  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   65  90  63  88 /   0  10   0   0
F10   65  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04