486
FXUS64 KTSA 121110
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

  - Increasing southerly winds and unseasonably warm conditions will
aid in limited fire weather concerns for Sunday afternoon.

  - Rain chances return Monday mainly for areas along and north of
    I-44.

  - Unseasonably warm conditions through much of the week, with
    low rain chances possible next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Satellite showing some patchy low cloud cover over the terrain of
southeast OK and northwest AR, and some light fog will also be
possible in sheltered valleys there. Otherwise quiet and mild
overnight. South winds beginning to increase to our west and the
expectation is for a significant increase across much of eastern OK
by later Sunday morning through the afternoon, in particular west
of Highway 75. Dew points the past couple of afternoons have dropped
off within the area of recent rainfall deficits and would expect
similar results Sunday afternoon. This leads to a corridor of low
RH in the 25-30% range with some overlap with highest wind gusts.
Resultant grassland fire potential will be enhanced across Creek and
Pawnee counties where driest fuels exist, with highest potential
spread rates possibly offset farther to the north. Not a critical
day by any means, but maybe highest potential since early spring.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A weak cold front is still expected to approach northeast OK by
Sunday night and Monday, which will weaken sfc gradient and cause
winds to relax. MOst precip associated with the front will occur
along and north of the boundary within a plume of tropical moisture
from the Pacific. The sfc boundary and moist plume largely stay
northwest of the forecast area, so rain chances remain confined to
areas northwest of I-44 with limited amounts overall. Temperatures
will be notably cooler across northeast OK for as a result of cloud
cover, but not much anticipated farther to the south.

The front quickly loses influence by Tuesday as strong upper ridge
builds back over the Southern Plains, with a return to dry and
unseasonably warm conditions. There are signals of a shift to a more
active pattern beginning as early as next weekend, but the usual
uncertainties apply. Forecast will include a low chance of precip
for Saturday in line with the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

South winds will increase this afternoon and become gusty with
speeds below 25kt. VFR conditions expected through the period with
an increase in mid and high clouds late in the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  69  82  66 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   89  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   90  66  88  62 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   90  65  79  62 /  10  30  20   0
FYV   84  62  84  60 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   83  62  82  62 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   89  68  86  65 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   86  67  80  65 /   0  20  10   0
F10   90  67  86  63 /   0  20   0   0
HHW   88  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24