151
FXUS64 KTSA 281046
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

 - Widespread dangerous heat continue through Tuesday, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-115 F. Dangerous heat persists
   for portions of the area through Friday.

 - A minor cool down and a chance of showers and storms is
   expected mid to late week. A more substantial cool down may
   then occur over the weekend behind a weak cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Mid/upper level ridge will remain in control over the region in
the short-term period. As a result, itll be another wash, rinse,
and repeat forecast for Tuesday, with dangerous, oppressive heat
impacting the area during the afternoon and early evening hours.
No changes were made to the current Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat
Warning, which will go into effect from noon until 8 PM Tuesday. A
few counties (particularly Delaware and Pittsburg counties in OK
and Benton and Carroll counties in AR) in the Advisory may need to
upgraded to a Warning if temperatures and/or dewpoint
temperatures trend higher than forecast.

Model guidance continues to show a subtle mid-level shortwave
trough digging southeast along the eastern periphery of the ridge
late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Despite the shortwave grazing
northeast portions of the forecast area, much of the precipitation
is anticipated to remain north and east of the area, closer to
the center of the shortwave. However, most recent runs of CAMs
suggest a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms developing near
an approaching weak backdoor cold front and on the southern
fringe of the shortwave as early as late Tuesday afternoon, with a
slight uptick in coverage and intensity late Tuesday night and
through daybreak Wednesday morning. Went ahead and added some low
PoPs to capture this possible scenario, with low confidence on
coverage and exact timing. The weak front is expected to move into
portions of northeast OK and far northwest AR, where it is
expected to severely slow down or stall into Wednesday.

Most locations are forecast to remain dry Tuesday evening and
night. Thus, another unseasonably warm night is expected with
perhaps slightly more cloud cover, especially the eastern half of
the CWA, than previous nights. Overnight lows Tuesday night will
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper-level ridge that is currently plaguing the region is
anticipated to briefly weaken and shift westward Tuesday into
Wednesday, before restrengthening over the Desert Southwest during
the daytime on Thursday. As it shifts west, eastern OK and
northwest AR will be caught in a northwest flow aloft. This will
do two things...allow for potential mesoscale features and
boundaries to move into or through the area, and decrease the
potent subsidence currently occurring. As a result of both of
these, temperatures will gradually cool off slightly, closer
seasonal average from mid to late week.

Models and ensembles show a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the Midwest Region between Wednesday and Friday,
introducing isolated to widely scattered (20-60%) showers and
thunderstorms each day, mainly for the northeastern half of the
forecast area. At the surface, the stalled frontal boundary from
Tuesday night will lift north as a warm front on Thursday as an
area of low pressure develops across the High Plains and lifts
northeast across the Great Plains Thursday evening and night. As
it lifts further north and east, it will drag a weak cold front
through the entire forecast area sometime Friday
afternoon/evening, with exact timing still uncertain. Though not a
ton of precipitation is expected with the front, temperatures
will cool down closer to or even slightly below seasonal averages
(highs in the low-mid 90s) Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. A few showers
currently just north of the Kansas border may drift southward far
enough to be in the vicinity of BVO, with coverage low enough to
make category impact potential low. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm potential remains most likely after 08Z at
the far NW AR terminals, and a PROB30 for a TS on-station will be
included at XNA/ROG/FYV as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  82 100  80 /   0  10  10  10
FSM  102  80  98  78 /   0  20  20  20
MLC  101  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  101  79  98  77 /  10  20  10  10
FYV   98  78  93  74 /  10  30  50  30
BYV   99  76  90  72 /  20  30  60  40
MKO  100  78  99  77 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   99  78  94  75 /  10  30  50  40
F10  102  78 101  77 /   0   0  10  10
HHW  100  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075-172-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22