101
FXUS64 KTSA 291132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - Low daily rain chances (~20%) and well below normal
   temperatures forecast through the weekend and into next week.

 - Higher chances for more widespread rain arrives Monday night
   into Tuesday as the next system moves through.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late next week could bring more
   rain chances and maintain well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should fill in somewhat
across portions of southeast Oklahoma along the elevated frontal
zone through the next several hours. This activity will likely
continue through the overnight hours as a modest low level jet
continues to stream deeper moisture over top the boundary. Good
moisture still in place will allow the stronger cells to be capable
of brief heavy downpours especially in any thunderstorms that
develop. A slow sag southward should push most of the rain south of
the Red River near or just after dawn this morning, with the rest of
the day remaining mostly dry. A few isolated light showers will
still be possible through the day, mainly across southeast Oklahoma,
but widespread meaningful rainfall is not expected across the area
today.

In addition to the rain chances through the early morning hours,
some patchy fog could also develop, contingent on where any clearing
can take place overnight. Locations that do see some clearing
overnight could experience some locally dense fog through mid
morning, but mostly cloudy skies should limit the overall coverage
of any fog through the pre dawn hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy
skies and the post frontal airmass will mean another day of well
below normal temperatures as the forecast calls for mostly mid 70s
this afternoon. Some spots of northwest Arkansas and far northeast
Oklahoma could see more sunshine this afternoon and creep into the
lower 80s for highs.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Upper ridging will build back over the Southwestern CONUS through
much of the next week, while broad longwave troughing continues over
the Great Lakes Region. This will mean we stay in an unseasonably
cool and at least somewhat active pattern through the rest of the
period. Various subtle shortwaves will move through the overall
northwest flow aloft through the weekend, maintaining daily low rain
chances through the holiday. While chances will exist, most of the
area will remain dry and any rain that does develop will likely be
light in nature and spotty in coverage. Guidance is in good
agreement now of a stronger shortwave traversing the local region by
Monday afternoon into Tuesday, which could bring more widespread
rain/thunder chances and reinforce the cooler airmass. Long range
ensemble and deterministic data continues to show a stronger trough
digging into the Upper Midwest by mid to late week, pushing a
seasonably strong cold front through the Plains. This would provide
another significant cool down along with continuing the active rain
chances over the region through the end of the forecast period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Varying ceilings between LIFR to low end MVFR early this morning
are forecast to remain through mid morning with also the potential
for isolated/patchy areas of reduced visibility. These conditions
should begin to improve mid/late morning and lift back to
scattered/broken VFR during the afternoon hours. Scattered mid
and high clouds are then forecast through the end of the TAF
period. However, there are some indications of lowing conditions
late in the TAF period again. Winds through the period continue to
be easterly with periods of variable winds for most locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  65  81  67 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   80  66  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   76  66  80  66 /  20  10  20  20
BVO   78  61  82  62 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   80  59  81  62 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   81  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   77  64  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   81  62  86  64 /   0  10  10  10
F10   75  64  80  65 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   75  67  80  67 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20