185
FXUS64 KTSA 200516
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

 - Slight cooling is expected for some areas Thursday, but
   temperatures will remain above average, with slight warming
   returning into the weekend.

 - Isolated showers may occur at times for the next several days,
   but overall dry weather will continue.

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, but with some cooling
in the north behind the cold front. Lows will range from the low 70s
in the north to near 80 across southeast Oklahoma. The cold front
will gradually move south, stalling somewhere across southeast
Oklahoma to perhaps as far as the Red River. A few showers and
storms may develop near the elevated frontal boundary overnight.
These isolated storms may produce brief gusty winds and heavy
rain, but totals will likely stay minimal.

Thursday will be several degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still
well above normal. Highs will mostly be in the upper 90s in the
north and low 100s in the south. Far southern Oklahoma will see
little cooling impact so an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
there for the afternoon hours, with a Heat Advisory extending north
to a little north of I-40. Some CAMs indicate a resurgence of
showers and storms near the dying cold front during the afternoon
hours, so raised NBM pops to mentionable in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The upper level ridge will remain to the west of the area the next
several days, but plenty close enough to keep very hot temperatures
in place. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the
next week, generally in the low 100s across eastern OK and west-
central AR, with upper 90s in northwest AR. Mid level flow will
increase slightly Friday through at least Monday as a series of
weak shortwaves pass through the area. These shortwaves will
promote just enough lift for the risk of a few showers and
thunderstorms, though coverage will probably remain isolated and
focused across northwest Arkansas.

Heading into the middle of next week most guidance keeps the ridge
west of the area, which would keep hot weather in place but with a
slight chance of showers persisting at times. Other guidance
moves the ridge overhead which would be slightly hotter and end
any chance of precipitation. The most likely outcome is a
continuation of the same pattern with hot and mostly dry
conditions, but periodic slight chances of rain. In net, this
means a continued drying of fuels and increasing fire weather
potential for many areas over time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A band of some high-based showers and possibly a few storms is
possible through early morning across the region as lift occurs
north of the front and in advance of a shortwave trough diving
southeast over the central CONUS. VCSH prevailing with PROB30
TSRA mention was maintained at most sites to handle this lower
coverage/confidence scenario, as some model solutions are fairly
dry overnight into Thursday morning. Outside of a storm impacting
a terminal, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
sfc winds blo impactful levels.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  74 102  76 /   0  20  10  20
FSM  104  75 104  74 /  20  10  10  20
MLC  105  75 106  76 /  20  10  20  20
BVO   97  69 101  71 /   0  20  10  20
FYV   98  69 100  72 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   95  69  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
MKO  100  73 103  74 /  10  10  20  20
MIO   96  70  99  73 /   0  20  10  20
F10  102  73 103  74 /  20  10  10  20
HHW  103  76 103  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ049-053.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30