Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
427 FXUS64 KTSA 201720 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Severe chances low, localized flooding concerns. - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend. - Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through much of the day today into this evening as an upper level wave tracks over the region. Heavier rainfall totals will likely set up from I-44 south, with less rainfall expected across far northern parts of the forecast area through the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall of an additional 1 to 2 inches could cause some flooding concerns, especially in more urban or low lying areas. A lack of instability will limit much in the way of severe potential. Portions of far southeast Oklahoma could destabilize some by this afternoon as the final cluster of storms moves from west to east, and locally raise some concern for strong to severe storms. Increasing low level shear near the surface low as it tracks through southeast Oklahoma could allow for a brief tornado with any more robust storm that can develop this afternoon. Chances are pretty low at this point though with widespread rain and cloud cover streaming over the region. Rain will begin to push east tonight with some lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm possible as the trough axis swings through. Temperatures will remain fairly steady today, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Lingering showers Friday morning, mainly across northwest Arkansas, should quickly push east with the exiting wave. A cold front will follow the upper low moving from northwest to southeast through the day Friday. The result will be more seasonable temperature settling in for the weekend. Highs tomorrow could reach the mid 70s across south and east portions of the forecast area, where the front will be later to arrive. Clearing skies will lead to a pleasant afternoon for most on Friday. Cooler and drier conditions will settle in on Saturday and again Sunday as another system approaches the area from the west. Latest trends in the guidance have come into better agreement on timing of any precipitation associated with the next system. The upper low is also trending to track further north, limiting more of the heavy rain threat that has been noted in previous forecasts. Still widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are progged to moves across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday night into Monday. Overall, the severe weather threat appears rather limited but a few stronger storms will be possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma Sunday night. Locally, another 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible...with widespread totals around one half to one inch in the forecast. A series of cold fronts will keep temperatures closer to or possibly below normal into the Thanksgiving holiday, with dry weather prevailing after Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Areas of showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue much of today and this evening, with flight conditions overall continuing to deteriorate. MVFR ceilings by this afternoon will mostly prevail with IFR or even LIFR developing in may areas tonight. Overall precip coverage will taper off from west to east overnight, with potential for more robust convection later this afternoon into the evening generally south of I-40. Some improvement in conditions possible very late in the forecast period across eastern OK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 71 47 62 / 70 10 0 0 FSM 62 75 51 67 / 80 20 0 0 MLC 60 74 48 65 / 80 10 0 0 BVO 55 69 43 60 / 70 10 0 0 FYV 59 70 47 63 / 90 20 10 0 BYV 59 70 49 62 / 90 30 10 0 MKO 60 72 48 63 / 70 10 0 0 MIO 60 70 47 60 / 80 20 10 0 F10 58 73 47 63 / 70 10 0 0 HHW 61 74 49 68 / 80 20 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...14