Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
057 FXUS64 KTSA 171807 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1207 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Low shower and storm chances Monday evening and Monday night. Isolated severe potential far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. - Well above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. - Unsettled pattern begins Wednesday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday night. - A few strong to severe storms possible Wednesday with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall and associated flooding potential Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Warm front currently positioned from north central Oklahoma into southeast Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast this afternoon and evening, while a surface low in western Kansas tracks east/northeast into western Missouri overnight tonight. Behind the lifting front, moisture advection will aid in lifting upper 50 to mid 60 deg dewpoints back over the CWA into this evening and should remain common overnight tonight. Also behind the front, as cloud cover continues to erode, well above seasonal average temperatures are anticipated this afternoon. The warm conditions remain overnight tonight with the southerly low level flow and warm dewpoints. An isolated shower/storm potential continues this afternoon for mainly far northwest Arkansas ahead of the front while the low level jet core lifts into southern Missouri. This evening and into the overnight hours the low level jet is forecast to expand back into portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The combination of the low level jet, warm advection processes and instability setting up over the region from the lifting warm front will aid in additional shower and thunderstorm chances this evening through tonight over generally the eastern half of the CWA. An isolated strong to severe storm potential exists through tonight with the greater potential over far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Deep layer shear values of 40-50Kt could contribute to large hail being the primary severe threat. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Precip tonight should taper off/exit early Tuesday morning with the exiting low level jet ahead of a shortwave progged to move through the Central Plains tonight and Tuesday. A trailing weak frontal boundary drops southeast into the CWA during the day Tuesday and looks to stall near the Red River Tuesday night. Behind this boundary, northerly winds transport a drier airmass into the region which could develop areas of limited fire weather danger Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures cool slightly Tuesday behind the boundary, while lower 80s develop ahead of it over the southern half of the CWA. Attention then turns to the much advertised low pressure system for the second half of the week. This wave begins to track into the Desert Southwest Tuesday night/Wednesday which pushes a weak upper level ridge over the CWA. The CWA looks to get on the back side of the ridge Wednesday afternoon with the return of southerly flow lifting the front from Tuesday back north of the CWA. In response, this begins the deeper moisture advection into the region ahead of the low pressure system progged to move out into the Southern/Central Plains Thursday night and Friday. A lead impulse/vort max lifting within the southwesterly flow moves through the CWA Wednesday afternoon/night. Shower and storm chances develop with this impulse Wednesday afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and then spreads over the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Instability also increases again over the region with the vort max, which creates an isolated strong to severe potential. Instability is forecast to weaken Thursday while model soundings indicate a more nearly saturated column ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Thus, a heavy rain threat develops Wednesday night and continues through Thursday night as precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches spread over the region. There remains some differences among latest data for the location of the heavy rain axis, though the greater potential for heavy rainfall that could lead to an increase in flooding concerns is mainly Thursday through Thursday night. With the low pressure system moving into the Plains Friday, the widespread showers should begin to exit to the east/northeast as a dry slot tries to wrap around the base of the low into the CWA. An associated cold front to the low is forecast to push through the CWA Friday afternoon and evening, with any lingering showers exiting with front Friday evening. Temperatures more closer to the seasonal average return for the weekend while a weak mid/upper level ridge passes through the Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Ongoing MVFR cigs across E OK should scatter out this afternoon with all places becoming VFR. CLoud cover will spread into NW AR sites this afternoon, but is expected to remain VFR through the afternoon hours, before clearing out some this evening. Gusty southerly winds continue through today with sustained winds staying up around 10 knots during the overnight hours tonight. A low chance for a thunderstorm or two will exist across far NE OK into NW AR late tonight, but chances remain too low to mention at any site right now. A frontal boundary will bring gradually shifting winds tomorrow morning across the region. MVFR cigs could also spread back into NW AR sites tomorrow morning before pushing east was the front passes. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 77 50 74 / 10 0 0 20 FSM 63 83 54 79 / 20 0 0 20 MLC 67 85 54 80 / 10 0 0 30 BVO 52 75 44 71 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 63 78 48 75 / 40 0 0 10 BYV 61 78 49 73 / 40 0 0 10 MKO 64 80 51 78 / 20 0 0 20 MIO 60 75 47 72 / 40 0 0 10 F10 62 80 51 78 / 10 0 0 20 HHW 68 85 62 81 / 10 0 0 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04