367
FXUS64 KTSA 142341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

  - Odds lean toward another storm complex tonight. But as
    each round of storms changes the setup for the next round
    confidence is not high on the details.

  - Flooding will be possible along the track of the storm
    complex tonight and Sunday morning.  A Flood Watch for
    parts of eastern Oklahoma has been issued. Since confidence
    on details is not high, monitor the latest information
    on changes to the flooding potential.

  - The chance for nighttime complexes diminishes next week, but
    a weather system moving through the area will bring increased
    storms chances from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

  - Hot and humid conditions are likely the later half of next
    week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The atmosphere over northeast Oklahoma has so far been slow to recover
from the earlier storms.  If this continues to be a slow process, the
setup for a storm complex tonight will change. At the moment, odds lean
toward diminishing clouds an precipitation in northeast Oklahoma over the
next few hours, and warm front gets re-established in far northeast Oklahoma.
Near and after sunset a modest low-level jet (35 kt) begins to develop across
Oklahoma and force lift near the front.  Scattered storms should develop in
far northeast around 9 - 11pm and gradually increase in coverage.  The main
thrust of the complex, if it can develop, should be toward the south-southeast
down into eastern Oklahoma, but the east edge could easily expand into western
Arkansas.  A Flood Watch has been issued for where the chances of excessive rain
are currently the highest. But the watch could need to be adjusted as details
evolve.  If a complex can develop, scattered severe gusts would be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Remnants of what develops tonight will move across the area Sunday and weaken
with time.  There is some low potential for a storm complex Sunday night, but the
probabilities are not too high.  Nighttime complex potential will drop early
next week, but the chance for storms will tick up from Tuesday evening into
Wednesday evening as tough aloft passes and forces a front into or close to
northeast Oklahoma. If the front does not make it, outflows will for a time.
Following this system heights will rise over the area and heat will build.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Today`s MCS has finally weakened and pushed out of our CWA this
evening, with VFR conditions at all sites to begin this forecast
period. Next round of convection expected late this evening over
north central Oklahoma, will have potential to impact nern OK sites,
and then spread south and east toward other sites overnight. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this scenario playing out. MVFR
CIGS and fog Sunday morning most sites, with MVFR CIGS continuing
into midday/early afternoon before becoming VFR late. Convective
potential increases again Sunday afternoon, but given the uncertainty
of mesoscale boundary placement to focus development as well as
other factors, have opted not to include PROB30 groups across the
board at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  83  69  88 /  70  40  30  10
FSM   72  88  72  89 /  30  40  20  40
MLC   71  86  69  89 /  30  50  20  30
BVO   68  82  67  87 /  70  40  30  10
FYV   68  83  67  86 /  50  50  30  30
BYV   67  84  67  84 /  40  50  30  40
MKO   69  85  69  87 /  50  50  20  20
MIO   69  83  68  86 /  40  50  30  20
F10   69  86  68  89 /  40  50  20  20
HHW   71  86  70  87 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for OKZ054-055-059-060-064>066.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69