396
FXUS64 KTSA 181718
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight
   cooling, but temperatures will remain above average into next
   week.

 - A few isolated showers and storms may occur at times this
   week, particularly Wednesday into Thursday, but overall dry
   weather will continue.

 - At least limited fire weather conditions remain a daily concern
   due to drying fuels and periods of breezy winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Broad high pressure remains in place across the SW and S-Central
CONUS today. This will result in another day of intense heat across
the CWA, with highs rising above 100 for most locations. The warmest
temperatures are forecast to occur west and south of the 36-hour
rainfall footprint, which generally lies along a line from Pawnee to
Fort Smith. Here, high temps greater than 105 degrees will be
possible today. Along and north of the rainfall axis, humidity will
be higher and temperatures may be a tad lower. Dangerous heat
indices are expected areawide this afternoon, likely exceeding 110
for several locations, and an Extreme Heat Warning and Heat
Advisory remain in effect. Overnight lows will remain on the warm
side as well, mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, offering
little heat relief.

Predominantly dry conditions are favored today, but a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly from C OK to the terrain of SE OK and NW AR. Any storm
that develops may produce locally strong wind gusts and heavy
rainfall. Convection is likely to wane after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

By Wednesday morning, a shortwave will be traversing the central
plains, helping force a cold front southward toward our area.
Current guidance suggests the front will enter N OK/AR during the
afternoon and stall in the area through the evening and overnight
hours. This will likely be a focus for thunderstorm development
as early as late afternoon, though the higher chances arrive
during the evening and overnight across NE OK and NW AR as
another disturbance moves through the region. Increasing wind
shear will support some severe weather potential, with damaging
wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards. Locally heavy
rainfall may also occur, but widespread heavy rains appear
unlikely at this time. Otherwise, dangerous heat will persist
Wednesday south of the front with high temperatures in the 100s
and heat indices between 105-110+ degrees.

The front will tend to linger in the vicinity Thursday before
washing out by Friday. While this will help reduce temperatures
across much of the area, highs are still forecast to remain in the
upper 90s to lower 100s as ridging amplifies overhead. A few
isolated afternoon showers/storms will be possible along the front,
but mostly dry conditions are forecast Thursday and Friday. The
upper level ridge becomes centered just west of the FA over the
weekend and persists through early next week. This provides
persistent above average temperatures and dangerous heat potential
with additional heat headlines likely over the coming days. A
couple shortwaves passing mostly to our northeast may promote a
few diurnal showers this weekend but dry conditions remain
favored overall. As a result, fire weather concerns continue to
grow with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals. An isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm is possible
this afternoon over the terrain S of KFSM, but not expected to
have impacts there. LLWS will increase overnight ahead of an
approaching sfc boundary, which will bring a wind shift to KBVO
late in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  104  83 106  76 /  10   0  10  20
FSM  105  77 106  78 /  10  10   0  10
MLC  107  82 108  80 /  10  10   0   0
BVO  103  76 102  69 /  10   0  10  30
FYV  101  77 103  73 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   99  77 101  72 /  10  10  10  50
MKO  104  78 106  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   99  77  99  71 /  10  10  10  40
F10  105  79 108  75 /  10  10   0  10
HHW  104  80 104  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ058-063-068-069-
     172.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-
     354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14