183
FXUS64 KTSA 080543
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through Monday
   morning. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main
   concerns.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe overnight into
   Monday morning. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts, but
   tornado threat is non-zero.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The main concern through the short term will be for a zone of
heavy to potentially very heavy rainfall along with severe weather
potential setting up across portions of northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas through the overnight period into Monday
morning. A deep, moist environment in in place over the region
with precipitable water values near the climatological max for
this time of year. Current analysis shows a surface low over far
southeast Colorado which will track eastward overnight into
southern Kansas. A pseudo warm front is noted in the theta-e
analysis, draped across northeast Oklahoma generally along a line
from Tulsa to Fort Smith. This boundary will likely serve as the
focus for continued thunderstorm development through the overnight
hours as strong moisture transport on the nose of a modestly
strong low level jet streams over the boundary.

Multiple rounds of storms and back building of storms seem likely
to set up along and north of this boundary as it slowly lifts
northeastward. Additional ascent at the base of the upper trough
slowly exiting the area will also overlap, leading to renewed
thunderstorm development likely lasting into mid morning Monday.
Moderate instability along with the other features mentioned will
generate very efficient rainfall rates over the area. Training of
storms could lead to localized rainfall totals of 4 to 6 plus
inches in a narrow zone near the OK/KS/MO/AR borders by sunrise
Monday. Thus the Flood Watch has been extended in time to cover
this scenario. In addition to the flooding concern, strong low
level shear, combined with the moderate instability will also
favor some strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and tornadoes all possible through the overnight period.
Storms should eventually merge into a cluster, as a cold pool
develops, and surge southeastward Monday morning more into
northwest Arkansas with a continued heavy rain and severe threat.
As the low level jet weakens and the upper trough moves further
away from the local region, any remaining storms should dissipate
by late morning or early afternoon Monday.

The rest of the day Monday will see upper ridging building into
the area behind the exiting upper low. As skies clear during the
afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to near 90.
That combined with very high dewpoints in the mid 70s, owing to
all the recent rainfall, will push heat index values in excess of
100 degrees Monday afternoon for many locations. Western Arkansas
areas could see lingering cloud cover, left over from the morning
MCS, well into the afternoon. This should take the edge off the
heat some for those locations. Gusty southerly winds will also be
likely through the afternoon as the surface low remains nearby.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A couple of hot and very humid days will be in store through the
middle part of the week as the upper ridge continues to build over
the region. There is a signal that a few storms will develop across
central Kansas Monday evening and try to track to far northern
portions of the forecast area by Tuesday morning, while weakening.
Thinking right now will keep mentionable PoPs north of the CWA as
the building ridge should quickly suppress any convection the further
south it gets. This will continue to be monitored and updated as
needed in subsequent updates. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region
and high dewpoints owing to the recent rainfall leading to heat
indices around or in excess of 105 degrees. Heat headlines will be
likely during this time for at least part of the area.

The pattern turns a little more unsettled again heading into the
latter half of the week and the weekend as persistent troughing
develops over the Central and Northern Plains. This will suppress the
ridge to the south across Texas with much of Oklahoma and Arkansas
sandwiched between the two. Various shortwaves moving through the
larger scale trough will likely push a series of frontal
boundaries into the region, beginning Thursday, bringing
increasing rain and storm chances along with taking the edge off
of temperatures a bit for several days. Guidance continues to
suggest a potential stronger push of Canadian air is possible by
late weekend into early the next week which could bring some
unseasonably cool temps to the region if that happens.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another pretty complicated forecast with low cigs and storm
chances mingled in there. The focus will be on NE OK and far NW AR
sites initially, so VCTS and TEMPO mentions were included in those
TAFs with convection nearby. Eventually, a complex of storms is
expected to form and drop south across W AR, impacting all of
those TAF sites, including KFSM, into Monday morning. Storm
activity should end by midday Monday at all sites with no
additional activity expected. Low clouds will become more
widespread aft 09Z, mainly in the MVFR range, but some IFR is
possible, especially with storms. Cigs should trend upward by
midday and especially into the afternoon, with a trend toward VFR.
VFR conditions will prevail thereafter thru the end of the
forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  77  91  77 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   91  76  93  75 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   90  78  91  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   88  76  91  77 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   86  75  88  75 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   85  73  89  73 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   89  75  90  75 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   87  75  90  75 /  80  10   0   0
F10   89  75  90  75 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   90  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ055>058-060>063-
     067>070-154-172-254-272-354.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30