960
FXUS64 KTSA 262320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

 - Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
   will continue through early week.

 - A slight chance of showers arrives Tuesday with higher rain
   chances next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Persistent upper level ridging over the southeast CONUS again
today, with a longwave trough in the west. This continues the run
of dry conditions with above normal temperatures. A fairly robust
shortwave centered near KELP is expected to slowly move
northeast, with steering flow directing most of it`s energy well
to the northwest of the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

We will see a solid increase in mid level moisture tonight into
Tuesday and the upper ridge is at least flattened by this
shortwave, but surface pattern continues to support dry lower
levels. There will likely be just enough forcing across the
northwest portions of the area for some light precip to develop,
but with a lingering dry layer noted below about 800mb. So at
best, would expect some very light rain mainly to the west of
Highway 75 Tuesday, potentially a few sprinkles toward the I-44
corridor. Clouds Tuesday should bring daytime temps down a few
degrees. Slightly stronger flow over the Rockies will tighten the
pressure gradient by mid week, with a modest increase in wind
speeds resulting in an uptick in fire weather conditions Wed,
though nothing near critical.

Most longer range guidance continues to depict a gradual
breakdown of the upper ridge and a stronger more persistent
southwest flow aloft developing for our region. Surface pattern
should also support some influx of low level moisture. This will
ultimately result in higher rain chances by the end of the week
into the weekend, with a slight cool down owing mainly to more
cloud cover and precip versus any meaningful airmass change.
Forecast continues to show some rain chances in the Fri-Mon time
frame, mainly due to the uncertainty of timing any shortwave in
the more unsettled pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few
showers may occur early Tuesday morning near the northeast
Oklahoma sites, but any impacts will be minimal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  77  59  82 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   53  81  56  84 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   55  78  57  82 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   49  74  55  80 /   0  20  10  10
FYV   50  76  53  80 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   53  75  57  79 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   54  77  58  82 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   54  74  58  79 /   0  10  10   0
F10   55  77  58  82 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   54  79  56  83 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05