351
FXUS64 KTSA 241117
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of
   locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The
   possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity.

 - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday
   with damaging wind potential the primary hazard.

 - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until
   widespread beneficial rainfall occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The immediate near term concern is the likelihood of at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm development after midnight,
beginning initially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
eventually working south and eastward toward daybreak, all in
response to an increasing low level jet. There have already been
signs of the initial development late this evening on KINX, along
with other echoes across northwest Arkansas that have bubbled much
of the evening. The expectation is for the potential for severe
weather, focused on a locally damaging wind threat, to be highest
in far northeast Oklahoma into northwest and west central
Arkansas. Locally heavy rain should be expected as well. The
overall trend into the daylight hours should be for an eastward
shift through mid to late morning, a notable lull early afternoon,
with a low chance of additional development in southeast Oklahoma
mid to late afternoon in association with another mid level speed
max.

In addition to the shower and thunderstorm potential through the
day, a portion of the area will continue to battle heat stress
concerns. A Heat Advisory will be issued for a part of east
central and southeast Oklahoma roughly along and south of I-40
and along and west of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This area is
less likely to have significant rainfall and convective debris
during the day and therefore, continued triple digit temperatures.
It is possible that if lesser thunderstorm development
materializes tonight and into the morning that this advisory will
need to be expanded northeastward on later shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday evening,
with a gradual decrease in the potential for further development
for much of the night, continuing into the day Tuesday. Overall,
warmer conditions areawide are expected Tuesday, with additional
heat headlines likely. The brief largely dry period for much of
Monday night and into Tuesday looks to end Tuesday night as a
fairly potent mid level disturbance moves into the area, leading
to the development of a thunderstorm complex that moves southward
into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Cooler
low level temperatures look to move southward into the area on the
heels of this disturbance for Wednesday, with roughly the northern
half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal. The more
normal temperatures should hang around into Thursday as well.

A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected by the
weekend, with the high pressure center shifting eastward. This
should bring a longer stretch of dry weather and a return to hot
temperatures areawide, particularly by Sunday and next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish by late
morning. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any storms.
Isolated storms may redevelop late this afternoon or evening, but
the chances are too low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  98  74 /  20   0   0  20
FSM   93  75 102  75 /  40  10  10  10
MLC  102  76 105  74 /  20  20   0  10
BVO   94  69  97  68 /  20   0   0  20
FYV   88  70  98  71 /  60  10   0  30
BYV   88  71  94  71 /  70  10   0  30
MKO   95  73 101  73 /  30  10   0  10
MIO   93  71  96  71 /  50   0   0  40
F10  100  74 102  73 /  20  10   0  10
HHW  103  77 103  76 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-065-066-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05