649
FXUS64 KTSA 170530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring low-
medium chances (20-50%) for storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas late tonight and Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
Advisories likely.

 - Low chance (<20%) of showers and storms in far southeast Oklahoma
Saturday associated with a possible tropical disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Warm and muggy conditions prevail overnight with the forecast area
lying south of an advancing cold front. The front currently
stretches from northern TX Panhandle to central KS with fairly
widespread convection well north of the boundary. This front will
eventually reach near the OK/KS border by early Thursday morning
with some increase in showers and thunderstorms along the boundary
in the 09z-12z time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

There remains uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage with the
front Thursday morning, though at least scattered precipitation is
expected to eventually spread into far NE OK/NW AR through mid
morning. Coverage may wane into afternoon before potentially more
robust re-developmet in the frontal zone late afternoon and
evening, with potential for a few more organized clusters to produce
strong downburst winds and localized heavy rain.

OUtside of this influence we will see seasonably hot temperatures
with dew points likely in the mid or upper 70s yielding a corridor
of heat index values around 105 from the Arkansas River Valley
toward the Tulsa area, similar to Tuesday. For now will keep areas N
of US 412 out of the advisory as cloud cover may knock a degree or
two off the temperatures.

The front will largely dissipate by Friday and as we go into the
weekend, strong upper ridging will begin to build over the southern
plains, really for the first time all summer. Indications are that
an extended stretch of hot and humid weather will ensue, with
several days of heat headlines likely. A west-moving subtropical
wave moving along the Gulf coast may bring a shower or storm to
extreme SE OK on Saturday, but dry otherwise with above normal
temperatures inching closer to the century mark next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Early day convection will attempt to spread across portions of NE
OK and possibly far NW AR in proximity to weak cold front /
composite outflow boundary. Uncertainty remains on overall
coverage and southward extent of this convection w/ highest
chances near the OK / KS border. The remnant boundary is likely to
stall by afternoon but remain a focus for isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening storms. Outside of the influence of any
thunderstorms, conditions are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  75  97  75 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   96  77  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   95  72  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   92  73  97  73 /  50  30   0   0
FYV   92  73  94  73 /  30  10  10   0
BYV   91  72  94  73 /  40  10  20   0
MKO   93  74  95  74 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   92  74  95  74 /  50  30  10   0
F10   94  74  95  72 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07