320
FXUS64 KTSA 291133
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - Low rain chances across northeast Oklahoma Tuesday, with
   isolated thunder potential.

 - Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

 - Unsettled weather for mid to late week, with several periods
   of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Limited severe
   weather potential will exist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low impact conditions can be expected for much of the overnight,
with continued above normal low temperatures and a low chance of a
light shower west of Highway 75 near daybreak. The chance for
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will increase late
morning and into the afternoon hours across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, primarily north of I-44 as a disturbance in the
increasing southwest flow aloft moves northeastward through the
area. Rainfall amounts should remain fairly light through Tuesday
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal in
most areas, with low to mid 90s across most of the area along and
south of I-40. Areas along the Kansas border could end up cooler
than the current forecast if the shower/storm coverage is higher
than expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The focus of this forecast package remains on the potential for
multiple rounds of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
and the most substantial rainfall this area has seen since June.
The storm system of interest is onshore tonight in the
southwestern United States, with Hurricane Polo just off shore of
the Baja California. The moisture associated with Polo will flow
into the Southern Plains as the aforementioned storm system shifts
eastward toward the region. Forecast precipitable water values
remain near record levels for this time of year, supporting
efficient rainfall production. The heavy rainfall potential will
move from west to east across the area with time, beginning
Wednesday evening in areas west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
and moving out by midday Friday - although chances for lighter
rainfall will extend into the weekend. There has been a lot of
buzz about the overall rainfall totals, and confidence is highest
in some of the higher end totals /2-4 inches, locally 6-7 inches/
being realized across portions of eastern Oklahoma and much less
across western Arkansas given recent model trends. The NBM QPF is
hanging onto some of the higher amounts featured in older model
runs, and some adjustments have been made to the NBM
initialization to show some lower amounts in the eastern part of
the area using varying amounts of the 12Z ECMWF. Some
consideration was given to issuing a Flood Watch on this shift,
but ultimately, there is enough uncertainty to warrant allowing
later shifts another look. One thing that will weigh heavily is
the impact of the persistent drought on how much rainfall the area
can take. The heaviest amounts are actually forecast across
portions of the forecast area /south of I-40/ with the highest
FFG, which is another reason for pushing the watch decision to
another cycle.

Fall-like temperatures will finally arrive for a multi-day period,
beginning with the rain impacts Thursday into Friday, continuing
behind a cold front that moves through Friday into Saturday and
reinforced Sunday into Monday. This reinforcement should also lead
to drier conditions into early next week. Of note, Tulsa has not
seen a temperature below 60 degrees since May 25th and early next
week may break that streak.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South
winds will gust near 20 knots at times today at the northeast
Oklahoma sites. Added a PROB30 for showers at KBVO this
afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  74  90  69 /  10   0  30  90
FSM   95  72  94  74 /   0   0   0  30
MLC   96  74  93  70 /  10   0  20  70
BVO   86  68  88  65 /  20   0  30 100
FYV   89  68  90  68 /   0   0  10  30
BYV   89  69  89  71 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   91  70  91  68 /  10   0  20  70
MIO   84  70  89  68 /   0   0  10  70
F10   92  71  90  67 /  10   0  30  80
HHW   94  72  93  72 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05