866
FXUS64 KTSA 140553
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend,
    with at least a limited potential for severe weather and
    localized flash flooding, especially across eastern Oklahoma.
    Continue to monitor the forecast for updates and additional
    details as they become available.

  - Warming trend and humid conditions going into next week with
    heat indices approaching or potentially exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Upper low centered across southern Missouri continues to slowly
drift eastward this evening. Scattered thunderstorms redeveloped
this afternoon along remnant outflow from morning convection
across east central Oklahoma, with convection continuing into
western Arkansas at this hour. High instability and at least some
modest deep layer shear on the backside of the upper low has lead
to some of these storms becoming strong to severe. Activity is
expected to fester along the remnant outflow boundary through the
evening hours, possibly developing northwestward into Tulsa metro
area later this evening. Gusty winds and some large hail will be
the threats with the more organized storms, along with heavy
rainfall thanks to the tropical moisture in place across the
region.

Later tonight, attention will turn to more storm chances moving in
from the northwest as scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate across central Kansas and congeal into an MCS and make a
run at the forecast area toward tomorrow morning. A well organized
MCS is not expected owing to the weak flow aloft and relatively
weak shear in place across the region. However, a damaging wind
threat will still be possible as convectively driven cold pools
strengthen and surge within the line of storms. Locally heavy
rainfall and flooding will also be a concern, especially with the
already wet conditions in place over much of the area. Storms will
spread across the region tomorrow morning, likely weakening with
eastward extent through the early morning hours.

For the update tonight, have adjusted PoPs upward owing to the
recent trends in guidance and better agreement in storm
development overnight. Have also added a mention of patchy fog,
mainly across western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Following the exit of today`s upper low, ridging expands across
the desert southwest and places our area under north-northwest
flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing tomorrow
morning across northeast Oklahoma and perhaps extending into
northwest Arkansas. As the nocturnal jet weakens, storm intensity
and coverage should tend to decrease through the morning hours.
Considerable spread remains regarding convective evolution
tomorrow afternoon, but at least some potential exists for
redevelopment with diurnal heating... especially along any remnant
outflow boundaries. If this occurs, moderate to strong
instability and sufficient lapse rates would likely support some
severe potential, despite generally weak shear.

Saturday evening and overnight, a wave embedded in the flow aloft
will drift into the region, potentially igniting additional
storms across southern Kansas/ northeast Oklahoma. Various models
have hinted at fairly robust convection and potential development
into an MCS if storms materialize. While shear will be modest,
sufficient instability and low level lapse rates should support
severe weather potential with this activity. Damaging wind gusts,
very heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding, and large
hail would be the primary hazards with any activity during the
afternoon hours and/or overnight. As with the previous forecast,
have gone above NBM PoPs to account for storm potential
tomorrow... but PoPs may still be too low during this period and
adjustments may be required in following forecasts.

Low chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into Sunday
and Monday. The environment will likely continue to support at
least limited severe weather and heavy rainfall/ flash flooding
threats through the remainder of the weekend... with additional
MCS activity not out of question. Preceding convective/mesoscale
evolution will likely play a large role in the determination of
severe timing and locations most at risk this weekend. With this
in mind, please continue to monitor the forecast over the coming
days as finer details become better resolved.

It appears the FA may have a break from the rainfall late Monday
into Tuesday as shortwave ridging briefly expands into the S
Plains. However, by late Tuesday into Wednesday, an amplified
trough is forecast to move into the plains, dragging a weak front
down with it. The front is projected to slow and eventually stall
somewhere in or near our area, with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances through early Thursday. By late next week,
upper ridging appears to expand into the region and intensify in a
much more summer-like pattern. This will likely bring much drier
conditions and put an end to our very rainy stretch. Temperatures
will gradually increase this weekend, climbing into the lower to
mid 90s by next week, which is slightly above average. Warming
temperatures and high dewpoints are likely to lead to the first
stretch of heat indices approaching or exceeding 100 across the
area next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Overall, a low-confidence aviation forecast through the next 24
hours. Currently, VFR is prevailing at most TAF sites.
Intermittent MVFR/VFR cigs/vsbys will be possible through the
night. Light fog has already developed across portions of
northwest AR. Would not be surprised if vsbys bounced up and down
through the night, especially at FYV, XNA, and ROG. It`s possible
the fog may spread westward and impact TUL, RVS, and BVO as well.
Any fog/low cigs should lift by mid-morning and VFR should is
expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. However,
hi-res model data have shown run-to-run consistency of a complex
of storms forming near/along the KS/OK border by mid-morning.
Guidance has complex of storms forming into an MCS and back
building southward as it pushes eastward in to eastern OK mid-late
morning and eventually northwest AR by early-mid afternoon. If
this solution verifies, moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds
will be associated with this complex. Latest TAFs reflect the
latest thinking of timing of the storms. Additional storms are
expected to form late in the evening, towards the tail-end of the
TAF period, across eastern OK. Again, overall forecast confidence
is low at the moment.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  85  70 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   90  72  89  72 /  30  20  40  20
MLC   88  72  89  71 /  30  20  30  20
BVO   88  68  84  67 /  20  30  40  20
FYV   87  68  85  68 /  20  20  40  30
BYV   86  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  30
MKO   87  71  87  71 /  30  30  40  20
MIO   87  69  83  68 /  20  20  40  30
F10   88  71  88  71 /  30  30  40  20
HHW   88  72  87  72 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67