048
FXUS64 KTSA 030449
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

 - Above average temperatures are expected over the next 7 days.

 - Dry conditions are likely through early next week.

 - Fire weather potential likely increases by Sunday and Monday
   with breezy afternoon winds, warm temperatures, and low
   relative humidity values.

 - Rain and isolated thunder chances increase Wednesday night into
   Thursday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Some patchy fog remains possible into Saturday morning from
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, although increasing
cloud cover will keep the fog threat rather limited. The
aforementioned cloud cover will clear from west to east during the
day, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 40s to upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A warming trend will commence Sunday, with unseasonably warm
temperatures then expected from Monday through Thursday.
Increasing south winds Sunday and Monday will raise fire weather
concerns somewhat as well. A weak surface boundary will settle
across the area Tuesday resulting in lighter winds before winds
return out of the south Wednesday ahead of the next storm system.

This next system will bring increasing shower chances Wednesday
night into Thursday, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms
as well.

Colder air will filter into the area behind this system late next
week into the following weekend, but will likely only knock
temperatures back to more typical January levels. The NBM is
likely up to its old tricks of hanging onto pops too long into
next weekend, but will leave them alone for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR with widespread mid and high level cloudiness continues to
prevail at all forecast sites late this evening, but expect
conditions to decrease at all sites next few hours as MVFR
ceilings  overspread the area. SREF data even indicate high
probabilities of IFR ceilings at MLC and FSM, with probabilities
slightly lower at other nwrn AR sites. MVFR visibilities in fog
are most likely across nwrn AR, likely persisting through mid/late
Saturday morning. Ceilings improve to VFR by midday ern OK sites
and mid afternoon nwrn AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  51  31  57 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   44  57  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   40  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   29  49  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   39  51  28  55 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   39  48  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   39  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  48  29  56 /  10   0   0   0
F10   38  52  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  58  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69