287
FXUS64 KTSA 291805
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - Low rain chances across northeast Oklahoma Tuesday, with
   isolated thunder potential.

 - Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

 - Unsettled weather for mid to late week, with several periods
   of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Limited severe
   weather potential will exist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A relatively quiet period is in store through tonight across the
region. Increasing mid level moisture ahead of an approaching
upper trough has led to mostly cloudy skies, especially across
eastern Oklahoma. Scattered showers continue across portions of
Osage County and will continue to be possible through the
afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through the southwesterly
flow aloft. Rainfall amounts remains fairly light with this
activity. Enough instability may develop by later this afternoon
for some isolated thunder potential across western Osage County,
but overall low impact weather can be expected. Temperatures will
remain well above average across the area, with highs climbing
into the 90s across the south and into the mid to upper 80s across
the north. Areas under thicker cloud cover and experiencing more
shower coverage will likely remain cooler, with highs near 80.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The main impact focus through the end of the week continues to be
the potential for heavy rainfall beginning Wednesday night and
continuing into Friday. A potent upper low is currently tracking
eastward into the Desert Southwest, while Hurricane Polo is making
its second landfall on the west coast of mainland Mexico.
Tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Polo will be
injected into the eastward moving upper low. The true remnants of
Polo look to then lift northeastward mainly across eastern New
Mexico through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western Kansas
through the day Wednesday. Thus, most of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas look to remain dry through the daylight hours
Wednesday. Some isolated to scattered showers will be possible,
but generally coverage is expected to be low. A fairly
substantial mid level dry slot is noted on current water vapor
imagery wrapping into the upper low and is forecast to track into
western Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. This will likely set up a
pseudo dry line moving into central Oklahoma late in the day
Wednesday. At the same time, a secondary plume of tropical Pacific
moisture, somewhat tied to the developing Hurricane Rachel, will
stream northward from Deep South Texas into eastern Oklahoma ahead
of the advancing upper trough. The result will be a developing
line of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening across central
Oklahoma, advancing eastward into eastern Oklahoma Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. The main impact will be heavy
rainfall as precipitable water values climb to near climatological
max values across much of the area. Given the deep saturated
profiles, efficient rainfall production is expected and rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be common. Also, given the
timing of the line being during the overnight hours, severe
weather chances will stay pretty low as instability is lacking.
However, increasing low level shear will allow there to be a non
zero tornado risk with the initial line with any stronger
updrafts across eastern Oklahoma.

Widespread showers and storms will track eastward through the day
Thursday, while likely weakening as it approaches the OK/AR border
as the upper low begins to lift northeast of the region. A surface
cold front will then drop south into northeast Oklahoma Thursday
night into Friday. Additional light to moderate showers will be
possible both ahead of and behind the front on Friday as the
elongated trough axis remains in the vicinity and moisture wraps
around the backside of the departing system. Post frontal areas
across the northern half of the CWA could see a real taste of Fall
through much of Friday with cloudy and cool conditions, periods
of light rain, and breezy northerly winds likely. Lingering
showers will be possible again on Saturday, mainly across
southeast Oklahoma before a reinforcing cold front brings cool and
drier air through the region by Sunday. A multi day period of
more seasonable early October conditions will finish out the
forecast period as surface high pressure settles over the region
through mid week.

Talking about the much anticipated rainfall totals...The trend to
a more progressive upper trough will limit some of the extreme
rainfall potential across the area. Widespread totals of 1 to 4
inches are still expected across eastern Oklahoma, with less
expected across western Arkansas. Some locations across eastern
Oklahoma could still see locally 6-7 inches when all is said and
done. Have decided to continue to hold off on a Flood Watch, in
part because of the extreme drought conditions noted across the
area, along with some uncertainty on how much the dry slot might
inhibit totals. We will continue to monitor the trends for a watch
on subsequent shifts.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail, with a plethora of mid and
high clouds through the forecast period. South winds will gust near
20 knots at times through this afternoon, specifically at the
northeast Oklahoma sites. Winds trend lighter out of the south or
southeast after sunset this evening. Ongoing light to moderate
hit/miss rain showers and occasional thunderstorms are forecast to
persist through mid afternoon, mainly north and west of I-44. Kept
in a PROB30 group for showers at KBVO through about 22-23 UTC before
rain chances dwindle. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty
again at most TAF sites by mid to late morning Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  86  70  76 /   0  20  80 100
FSM   72  96  75  89 /   0   0  30  70
MLC   74  95  71  83 /   0  10  60 100
BVO   68  85  66  75 /  10  20 100 100
FYV   69  91  69  84 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   71  89  72  84 /   0   0  20  70
MKO   72  90  69  79 /   0   0  70  90
MIO   71  86  69  74 /   0  10  60 100
F10   72  89  68  78 /   0  10  80 100
HHW   72  94  73  85 /   0  10  40  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67