400
FXUS64 KTSA 060933
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
433 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 428 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures today, with low rain chances
    from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday,
    along with cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
    following the passage of a cold front.

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through
    next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap today, with afternoon high
temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Increasing moisture may
result in a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from parts
of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but most places will
remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A cold front will move south across the area tonight and Tuesday,
bringing noticeably cooler temperatures Tuesday, especially across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Have lowered
temperatures slightly from the NBM in the Monday night-Tuesday night
time frame. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will also continue
into Tuesday, although most places will remain dry.

After another "cooler" day Wednesday, a warming trend will take
place late this week, with unseasonably warm temperatures again
expected by next weekend. Afternoon high temperatures may approach
or exceed 90 degrees in a few spots next weekend, and increasing
south winds may result in increasing fire concerns as well at that
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions expected much of the day today. Winds will be
light. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected in eastern OK,
with mostly cloudy conditions in NW AR. Ceilings will mostly
remain at or above 5 kft. A few showers and storms may develop
Monday afternoon for any area, but focusing across northwest
AR. These storms could result in lower ceilings, visibility
reductions, and brief heavy rain. A cold front will reach KBVO
late Monday evening, pushing south through the rest of the area
overnight. Winds will turn northerly and become gusty behind the
front. Ceilings will lower dramatically to 1-3 kft for most areas.
A few isolated showers may occur during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  61  75  57 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   86  66  84  64 /  30  10  20  10
MLC   87  63  83  59 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   87  56  70  51 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   84  59  78  55 /  20  10  20  10
BYV   82  61  76  57 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   88  63  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  59  73  54 /   0  10  10  10
F10   88  61  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   86  64  83  63 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06