882
FXUS64 KTSA 142252
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

 - Cooler and drier weather is expected through Monday before
   warmer weather returns through mid week.

-  Low to medium thunderstorm chances Tuesday night.

 - Unsettled pattern returns late next week with additional storm
   and heavy rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The precipitation has shifted south of the forecast area this
afternoon, with only some light sprinkles/drizzle hanging around
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the
afternoon. Additional light showers may try to develop across
southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening as the mid
level trough axis remains over the region. any precipitation
should remain light, with the heavy rain threat remaining well
south of the area. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in
behind the passing frontal boundary with lows dropping into the
60s for most areas tonight. Some locations across the north that
can clear out of cloud cover could dip into the 50s by early
tomorrow morning. As surface high pressure settles overhead, any
areas that do clear out will have a chance at some fog development
late tonight owing to the recent rainfall over the region. Better
chances to see clearing skies will be across the north, so have
mentioned some patchy fog for late tonight in these areas.
Otherwise, partly cloudy and calm conditions will prevail over
much of the region with just low chances for some showers across
far southeast Oklahoma through the night.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest flow aloft will remain planted over the region through
much of the next week. Monday should stay dry and relatively cool
as surface ridging remains overhead. Stronger southerly winds
return on Tuesday as the surface high shifts eastward allowing
dewpoints to climb back into the 60s by afternoon as temperatures
climb back to near average for mid June. A shortwave trough moving
across the Central and Northern Plains Tuesday afternoon could
generate a cluster of thunderstorms across Kansas. The resulting
MCS could make a run at northeast Oklahoma overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The severe threat looks rather minimal by this
point, but a few areas could see some thunderstorms late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday should be dry,
with more typical heat building back into the region. Highs will
creep back to near 90 while heat index values push back to near
and above 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.

The pattern turns a little more unsettled again heading into the
latter half of the week. A stronger trough moving across the Great
Lakes Region will push another frontal boundary toward the local
region. At the same time, a tropical low if progged to lift
northward out of the Gulf and into the ArkLaTex. This will pull
more tropical like moisture northward and interact with the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Shower and storm chances will
increase beginning Thursday, with periods of rain possible through
Friday as well. More rain chances may arrive by late weekend as
another frontal boundary and storm system track across the Plains.
The various frontal boundaries and storm chances will keep
temperatures somewhat in check, near seasonal norms for this time
of year.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low clouds will continue to break up this evening across the area
with VFR conditions expected for much of the overnight hours.
Winds will be light out of the north to northeast. Later
overnight, a few areas of low clouds or fog may develop,
particularly north of I-40 which could break brief ceilings and
lower visibility. During the day Monday skies will be party cloudy
with east to northeast winds at or below 10 kts. A couple of
showers towards KMLC cannot totally be ruled out, but confidence
was too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  80  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   66  81  63  89 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   65  81  62  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   57  81  58  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   59  78  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   58  77  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   62  80  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   58  78  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   68  79  65  87 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06