437
FXUS64 KTSA 311130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

 - Low to medium daily shower and thunderstorm chances and well
   below normal temperatures forecast through the Labor Day
   weekend.

 - Those with outdoor plans for the holiday should consider
   sheltering options and remain weather aware, with lightning
   and low potential for locally heavy rain in the forecast.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late next week will drop
   temperatures even further, maintaining well below normal
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An upper level disturbance moving through the northwest flow
aloft will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms today,
mainly across eastern Oklahoma. Some locally heavy rainfall will
be possible, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma.
Temperatures will remain well below normal, with afternoon highs
in the low to mid 80s in most places, and some upper 80s possible
in the Arkansas River valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A stronger upper level disturbance will move southeast across the
area Monday and Monday night, accompanied by a cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this system
as well, with locally heavy rainfall again possible. Shower and
storm chances will continue into Tuesday across mainly northwest
Arkansas, and temperatures will remain well below normal.

After a brief warmup and a dry day Wednesday, shower and storm
chances will return Wednesday night and Thursday as a stronger
cold front moves across the area. Overall, the models are not as
aggressive with the cooling behind this front, but temperatures
will still be much below normal, with most places remaining in
the 70s for highs Thursday and falling into the 50s for lows
Thursday night.

Some models, namely the GFS and ICON, bring a reinforcing shot of
cooler air through the area Friday, but others do not, so forecast
uncertainty is high late this week through next weekend. The
consensus favors a return of at least low rain chances with time
and a slow warming trend, but with temperatures remaining below
normal for the first week of September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Rain chances/slight chance thunder develops off and on through
the TAF period across mainly eastern Oklahoma with an upper level
disturbance moving through the region. In response, scattered to
overcast mid and high clouds are expected to continue over the CWA
through the period. Will continue Prob30 groups for timing of
greater potential. Within the precip, locally heavy rainfall and
brief MVFR conditions are possible. Winds through the period
remain variable to east/southeasterly direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  66  83  64 /  40  30  30  30
FSM   87  68  85  67 /  20  10  20  20
MLC   83  66  83  64 /  40  20  30  30
BVO   80  62  83  60 /  50  30  40  30
FYV   83  63  83  61 /  20  20  20  30
BYV   83  63  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
MKO   83  67  83  64 /  30  20  30  30
MIO   82  65  81  62 /  30  20  40  40
F10   81  66  83  63 /  40  30  30  30
HHW   83  68  83  65 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20