510
FXUS64 KTSA 040412
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1012 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through Saturday.

 - Breezy conditions develop Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, but winds
   should remain below advisory criteria.

 - A strong cold front Saturday will drop temperatures below
   seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, but dry
   conditions will likely continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Mostly clear conditions continue Tuesday, with some high clouds
at times. Robust southerly flow persists (gusts of 25-35 mph) as
a storm system in the northern plains keeps a strong southerly
pressure gradient in place. Temperatures will warm 2-5F, with low
70s in northwest AR, and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. With low
afternoon RH on top of the warm and breezy conditions, the fire
weather potential will increase, especially for northeast OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A weak dry cold front will slide into northeast OK Wednesday,
settling near or just south of I-40 by Wednesday evening. This will
reverse the southerly flow temporarily north of the boundary, with
some slight cooling. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the
south to low 70s in the north. Southerly flow immediately returns
Thursday, with very warm air surging back into the area. High
Temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 70s in northwest AR to
low 80s for eastern Oklahoma. Winds will not be as strong as
Tuesday, but will still gust to 15-30 mph.

Another weak but mostly dry cold front Friday will knock
temperatures down a few degrees. There is still a 5-10% chance of
a few showers or sprinkles for portions of far northeast OK and
northwest AR, but most areas will see nothing. A stronger cold
front will then move through Saturday. A good push of northerly
flow will bring much cooler air back into the forecast area. This
will lower highs into the 50s-60s Sunday onwards with lows into
the 20s to 30s. Some guidance is quite chilly by Monday, so
depending on model trends, forecast temperatures could be lowered
further. Rain chances look bleak, with a 5-10% chance of a few
showers Saturday but otherwise essentially no precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

The forecast reasoning from the 00Z forecast continues to the 06Z
forecast. LLWS conditions after midnight NE OK and by Tuesday
morning for far NW AR. Gusty south winds expected during the day,
with gusts near 20 kts. Added a line at the tail end to notate a
drop off in winds after sunset Tuesday evening, along with a
gradual increase in high cloud.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  52  77  53 / MMM   0   0   0
FSM   73  45  77  50 / MMM   0   0   0
MLC   76  49  78  54 / MMM   0   0   0
BVO   70  47  77  48 / MMM   0   0   0
FYV   71  46  73  50 / MMM   0   0   0
BYV   71  48  74  54 / MMM   0   0   0
MKO   76  49  77  53 / MMM   0   0   0
MIO   68  49  75  52 / MMM   0   0   0
F10   77  49  77  53 / MMM   0   0   0
HHW   74  45  77  52 / MMM   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30