866
FXUS64 KTSA 281404
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - Flooding and flash flooding concerns will continue across far
   northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. A Flood
   Watch remains in effect until 1 PM.

 - Limited severe threat this afternoon, mainly across southeast
   Oklahoma.

 - Drying conditions and well below normal temperatures forecast
   through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Latest mosaic radar imagery shows the heavy rain axis, situated
across northeast OK and far northwest AR, is gradually starting
to shift southward. In theory, this should decrease storm
training some, with main storm motion from NNW-SSE. Flash flooding
will remain the biggest concern through the remainder of the
morning, especially across northeast OK and northwest AR.
However, the flooding threat will gradually shift southward
through the daytime today as it coincides with the passing mid-
level shortwave trough axis. Additional rainfall amounts between 1
to 3 inches, with pockets of 3+ inches, remain possible as the
heavy rain axis moves southward into west-central AR and southeast
OK today.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding threat today, a severe
thunderstorm threat will develop by midday across southeast OK and
into west-central AR, mainly south of I-40. Latest surface
observations and analysis show a stationary/pseudo warm front
that will lift northward through the morning, increasing surface-
based instability with it. With plenty of moisture to work with
and 30-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may form ahead of the shortwave trough axis and
along the frontal boundary this afternoon. Although large hail
(around 1 inch in diameter) and damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph)
are the primary hazards with severe storms today, there`s enough
low- level shear for limited tornado threat, focused across
southeast OK.

Overall, the current short-term forecast remains on track. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of northeast OK and far
northwest AR until 1 PM this afternoon. Will continue to monitor
conditions for an expansion/extension of the Flood Watch, but
changes to the Watch are not expected at this time.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Today)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Higher moisture has lifted north through much of the FA as of early
this morning, setting the stage for an episode of heavy rainfall and
potential for flash flooding today. As the low level jet increases
through the early morning hours, shower and thunderstorm coverage
will increase significantly along a nearly stationary boundary
extending from SE KS to W AR with the aid of an approaching
shortwave. Overall, the forecast philosophy remains similar to
previous discussions, and still expect an axis of heavy, training
thunderstorms moving parallel to the boundary across portions of NE
OK and NW AR this morning.

Near term guidance continues to support potential for a narrow band
of very heavy rain totals around 2-4 inches across NE OK and NW AR,
with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches possible. Given
higher available instability and PWATs approaching 2 inches,
rainfall rates could exceed 1-2 inches an hour at times. Thus,
despite the drier pattern of the past couple weeks, flash flooding
will become a serious concern and a Flood Watch remains in effect
until 1 PM this afternoon for northern parts of the FA. The latest
data has trended slightly more west and south with the heaviest
rainfall, and the Flood Watch was also expanded by a row to the
south to account for this potential. Additionally, river flooding is
forecast for parts of NE OK and a mix of River Flood Warnings and
Flood Advisories have been issued as a result.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will navigate southward across the
remainder of E OK and W-Central AR through the afternoon, becoming
more progressive with time as the aforementioned wave and associated
front pass through the region. Heavy rain and flash flooding will
remain a concern for the remainder of the CWA today, but given the
tendency for quicker storm movement and less training, potential
should generally be less so than during the morning. Additionally,
the airmass becomes increasingly unstable with southward extent and
storms may intensify as they move into/ develop within this
environment across SE OK. With sufficient shear and veering wind
profiles, some storms may become severe, with a risk for damaging
winds and large hail. The tornado threat should remain quite low,
but not zero, with highest potential associated with any storms
interacting with the boundary.

High temperatures today will likely be held in the 60s and 70s
across NE OK and NW AR due to extensive cloud cover and rainfall.
Across SE OK, southerly flow and less cloudiness ahead of today`s
storm system could promote highs briefly in the 80s before storms
arrive from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue this evening and tonight as
the sfc trough and frontal zone sag south. An area of low level FGEN
forcing and increasing LLJ will focus highest precip chances across
the southern half of the area during the overnight period, with
lesser chances north. Heading into tomorrow, sfc high pressure
attempts to build in behind the departing trough promoting a drying
trend. Low PoPs will remain across far SE OK but any QPF is expected
to remain light. Daily low shower/ storm chances continue through
the weekend, mainly across far southern and western parts of the
CWA, but most locations are currently expected to remain dry in this
regime.

Northwest flow aloft will continue across the plains next week due
to persistent longwave troughing anchored over the E CONUS. As
shortwaves embedded in the flow round the base of the trough,
periodic rain chances may return to E OK and NW AR... though
guidance varies in terms of timing and position. For now, NBM PoPs
seemed appropriate with generally low rain chances returning around
midweek. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this time of
year over the weekend before warming closer to average next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Mainly IFR conditions will develop today as a band of showers and
thunderstorms shifts slowly south across the area. Some
improvement to MVFR ceilings may occur later this afternoon and
evening, but IFR or LIFR conditions are likely to return overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  65  75  65 / 100  40  20  10
FSM   68  66  76  66 /  90  70  30  10
MLC   78  67  76  65 /  90  80  40  20
BVO   71  60  76  60 / 100  30  10  10
FYV   70  61  74  60 /  90  50  20  10
BYV   69  61  74  59 / 100  40  20  10
MKO   68  65  74  64 /  90  60  30  10
MIO   72  62  77  61 / 100  30  10  10
F10   72  65  74  64 /  90  60  30  10
HHW   86  68  78  67 /  80  80  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>063-067>069.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05