202
FXUS64 KTSA 151748
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2025

  - Rain/storm chances trend down as the day progresses today,
    remaining mostly dry through the early part of the upcoming
    workweek.

  - Another weather system will move through the area and will
    bring increased storms chances from Tuesday night into
    Wednesday.

  - Hot and humid conditions are likely through much of next
    week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Satellite and radar shows some light showers near the upper
low/remnant MCV across far NE OK/SW MO though the bulk of the
activity is further north into MO. Some lingering stratiform
precip associated with the exiting MCS remains across southeast
OK, otherwise cloudy conditions exist across the CWA. Surface
features are fairly nondescript with light/variable winds except
for a bit more defined southeasterly flow trailing the MCS over
far southern OK. Expect cloud cover to remain largely intact
through the afternoon with a few breaks late in the day helping
instability recover. The best rain chances remain in the vicinity
of the MCV and within the larger scale mid-level trough across
far eastern OK/NW AR. Little changes were made to the previous
gridded forecast with an early cancellation to the Flood Watch now
that river flood warnings have been issued and impactful rainfall
has ended.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A sub-severe thunderstorm complex, oriented northeast-to-
southwest continues to march southeastward across the CWA this
morning. The deteriorating convective band has now pushed into
portions of southeast OK and northwest AR. There isn`t a whole lot
of instability over the area at this time. Therefore, not
expecting anything severe to come from this line of storms.
Additional convection has been observed developing, riding an axis
of stronger instability, just west of the forecast area, in
central/north-central OK. This stronger convection is expected to
remain west of the forecast area. Latest high resolution model
guidance suggests thunderstorm intensity will continue to decrease
as the morning progresses. Unsurprisingly, observed radar trends
have been a touch faster than what current hourly hi-res model
data depicts. Therefore, there is still some uncertainty with how
everything evolves through the rest of the morning, which
inevitably will affect what occurs this afternoon. Latest few HRRR
runs suggest an MCV develops behind this morning`s convection,
sliding eastward over far northeast OK/northwest AR by midday and
into the afternoon. Additional convection is expected to develop
late this morning or early this afternoon across northwest AR, or on
the eastern fringe of the MCV. Still lots of uncertainty how much
the boundary layer will recover by this afternoon, but there may
be sufficient instability recovery for isolated strong wind gusts
with more organized storms that develop.

The other main story headline has been the heavy rainfall that
has and is currently falling across eastern OK, especially in
portions of northeast OK. Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor data show a
nice footprint of 1 to 3 inches of rain has fallen over the last
few hours generally from near/along I-44 and locations northward.
Instantaneous rainfall rates with the storm complex peaked
between 3 to 5 inches/hour at one point near the I-44 corridor
early this morning. Rainfall rates have since decreased as the
line of storms continues to decrease in intensity. Heaviest
rainfall amounts, since midnight, have fallen across Osage,
Pawnee, and Craig counties, where pockets of 3+ inches of rain
have fallen. A Flood Watch remains in effect across portions of
northeast OK (as of this writing), but expect the Watch to be
cancelled later this morning as the heaviest rainfall has now
ended.

A cool airmass behind this morning`s storm complex and mostly
cloudy skies will contribute to unseasonably cool temperatures
today. Afternoon high temperatures will range from he
upper-70s/lower-80s across far northeast OK and far northwest AR
to mid-80s elsewhere. Cloud cover should gradually begin breaking
apart and clearing from west to east mid-late afternoon or just
before sunset this evening.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Mid/upper-level trough will finally begin to lift northeast of
the area tonight and into Monday morning. As such, precipitation
chances will sharply decrease late this afternoon, this evening,
and overnight tonight. Did maintain some low-end mentionable PoPs
(20%) mostly across portions of southeast OK and west-central AR
overnight tonight and through Monday morning as wrap-around
moisture on the backside of the trough may cause a few isolated
showers/storms.

Rain chances are very low (10% or less) most of Monday and all of
Tuesday with temperatures trending warmer, as mid-level ridging
begins to build over the Southern Plains. The next upper-level
trough will move across the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday,
cutting into the upper-level ridge. A frontal boundary associated
with the trough may reach the OK/KS border Wednesday evening/night,
but global models are not very optimistic with its southward
progression, with consensus in model data keeping the front north
of the majority of the forecast area. However, the passing trough
will increase precipitation chances (20-40%) Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, perhaps lingering chances persisting through the
daytime on Thursday. Rainfall amounts at this time look fairly
light in comparison to previous days. Ridging is expected to build
back over the region late in the week and into next weekend. This
will keep temperatures a few degrees above seasonal average.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

With proximity of upper low/MCV to NW AR terminals left Prob30
there and at KFSM for this afternoon though coverage is expected
to be much less than previous days. Otherwise, uncertainty lies
with the timing of return of low clouds tonight and likelihood of
LIFR fog/stratus at all locations. Confidence is highest across
northeast OK of IFR/LIFR conditions where clearing should allow
stratus development especially given recent widespread rainfall.
Clouds will be slower to clear further east and may prevent fog
from developing, yet deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
agreement on at least IFR conditions developing toward daybreak.
Expect only slow improvement toward MVFR through the late morning
as upper level trough remains overhead and low level flow
continues out of the east to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  88  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   71  88  72  94 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   69  88  73  92 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   64  88  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   66  86  68  90 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   66  85  67  90 /  40  10   0  10
MKO   67  86  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   65  86  68  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   67  86  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  86  72  89 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...24