421
FXUS64 KTSA 290546
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - Low daily rain chances (~20%) and well below normal
   temperatures forecast through the weekend and into next week.

 - Higher chances for more widespread rain arrives Monday night
   into Tuesday as the next system moves through.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late next week could bring more
   rain chances and maintain well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should fill in somewhat
across portions of southeast Oklahoma along the elevated frontal
zone through the next several hours. This activity will likely
continue through the overnight hours as a modest low level jet
continues to stream deeper moisture over top the boundary. Good
moisture still in place will allow the stronger cells to be capable
of brief heavy downpours especially in any thunderstorms that
develop. A slow sag southward should push most of the rain south of
the Red River near or just after dawn this morning, with the rest of
the day remaining mostly dry. A few isolated light showers will
still be possible through the day, mainly across southeast Oklahoma,
but widespread meaningful rainfall is not expected across the area
today.

In addition to the rain chances through the early morning hours,
some patchy fog could also develop, contingent on where any clearing
can take place overnight. Locations that do see some clearing
overnight could experience some locally dense fog through mid
morning, but mostly cloudy skies should limit the overall coverage
of any fog through the pre dawn hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy
skies and the post frontal airmass will mean another day of well
below normal temperatures as the forecast calls for mostly mid 70s
this afternoon. Some spots of northwest Arkansas and far northeast
Oklahoma could see more sunshine this afternoon and creep into the
lower 80s for highs.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Upper ridging will build back over the Southwestern CONUS through
much of the next week, while broad longwave troughing continues over
the Great Lakes Region. This will mean we stay in an unseasonably
cool and at least somewhat active pattern through the rest of the
period. Various subtle shortwaves will move through the overall
northwest flow aloft through the weekend, maintaining daily low rain
chances through the holiday. While chances will exist, most of the
area will remain dry and any rain that does develop will likely be
light in nature and spotty in coverage. Guidance is in good
agreement now of a stronger shortwave traversing the local region by
Monday afternoon into Tuesday, which could bring more widespread
rain/thunder chances and reinforce the cooler airmass. Long range
ensemble and deterministic data continues to show a stronger trough
digging into the Upper Midwest by mid to late week, pushing a
seasonably strong cold front through the Plains. This would provide
another significant cool down along with continuing the active rain
chances over the region through the end of the forecast period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Ceilings varying from LIFR to low end VFR at the start of the
period are expected to become mainly LIFR to low end MVFR into the
early morning hours Friday over the CWA. Visibility is also
forecast to become more variable between LIFR and MVFR early to
mid morning Friday for most TAF sites. Lastly tonight, scattered
rain showers could redevelop into KMLC and will add a Prob30 group
for the early morning hours. During the day Friday, the low
ceilings and visibility over the CWA are forecast to improve back
to low end VFR during the afternoon hours. Toward the end of the
period, scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast over
the CWA. Winds through the period should remain easterly for most
locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  81  67  82 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   66  83  68  85 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   66  80  66  82 /  10  20  20  20
BVO   61  82  62  83 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   59  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   59  83  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   64  82  66  81 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   62  86  64  83 /  10  10  10  20
F10   64  80  65  81 /  10  20  20  20
HHW   67  80  67  81 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20