560
FXUS64 KTSA 121802
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1202 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week.

 - Dry weather will persist through weekend with periodic breezy
   days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Weak sfc high pressure over the region currently will be displaced
on Thursday with increasing southerly winds becoming gusty at
times during the afternoon. Cool and dry overnight conditions will
warm quickly through the day Thursday with afternoon high temps
10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Ridging aloft expands through the southern CONUS into the weekend
with near record warm temps within the low level thermal ridge
which expands across the region by Saturday. Temps will
correspondingly remain well above normal with sustained southerly
winds and increasing dewpoints also maintaining mild overnight
lows.

Weak cold front passes Saturday through Sat. night with little to
no impact and only a minor cool down for Sunday. Guidance
consensus continues to trend toward a more northward track of the
eventual wave ejecting from the southwest CONUS into the Plains
for early next week. Rain chances do return by Monday but remain
rather low and primarily confined to far E OK and NW AR. The
evolution and timing of the next wave to influence the region
remain uncertain, but rain chances remain through the end of the
forecast period as the overall pattern becomes more unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   50  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  73  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   45  72  57  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   47  77  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10   48  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  78  59  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14