361
FXUS64 KTSA 151120
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the work week.
   Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past
   few days, more rainfall will be required to reverse recent
   drought trends, especially across southeast Oklahoma. Fire
   weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger
   winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad ridge of high pressure aloft resides over the southeast
quarter of the nation, while an upper trough slides east across
the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretched east
to west across Nebraska, with a pre-frontal trough over N/NW KS.

South winds overnight will lead to warm morning lows on Tuesday.
By afternoon, the cold front will settle down into
central/southwest KS and will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The CAMs suggest that outflow from these storms
will drop down into far NE OK by evening, and could focus isolated
showers and storms. The model blend (NBM) has this potential
handled well with slight chance PoPs to the N and W of Tulsa.

Short-term ensemble mean 850mb temp forecast shows little change
into Tuesday from Monday, so the plan is to go with persistence
forecast for the most part for Tuesday highs. Using a blend of
short-term models for dewpoints, will make a few tweaks to the
going Heat Advisory but keep it largely intact.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The southeast CONUS ridge will strengthen toward the middle of
the week to near record 500mb heights for this time of year
(~600dam) with the ridge center drifting back west toward our
area before it weakens by the weekend. As a result, expect above
average warmth and mostly dry weather to continue through the work
week. There are low chances for afternoon showers and storms
Wednesday, mainly in the east. Early signals show a weak front
approaching from the west and increasing clouds and rain/storm
chances for the weekend. This will cool things off a bit, though
there are still no signs of that first true fall- like cold front
yet.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Diurnal cumulus mid level clouds develop this afternoon for the
CWA along with southerly winds gusting 10-25KT. This evening, an
outflow boundary from storms forecast to develop in Kansas could
sag into northeast Oklahoma. An isolated storm potential remains
near the Kansas border, though for now will keep a mention out of
the KBVO TAF. Otherwise, passing high clouds and light winds are
forecast for tonight. VFR conditions persist through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  78  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM  102  77 101  76 /  10   0  20   0
MLC  102  77 101  76 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   99  71  99  71 /   0  10  10   0
FYV   99  73  98  72 /  10   0  20   0
BYV   97  75  97  74 /  10   0  20   0
MKO  102  75 100  73 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   97  73  97  73 /   0  10  10   0
F10  101  75  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
HHW  100  75  99  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20